XAO Technical Analysis

Re: XAO Analysis

Very plausible Kauri !

I suspect theres alot of nervous money sitting on the side lines too.

The US result tonight will set the tone i guess!

Re: XAO Analysis

As for those commenting on the tightness of money for Aussie Resource stocks, see my Iron thread I started today,

The Chinese just stumped up $750m for the Mid West Infrastructure plan just so they can get their Iron Ore!

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:

As for those commenting on the tightness of money for Aussie Resource stocks, see my Iron thread I started today,

The Chinese just stumped up $750m for the Mid West Infrastructure plan just so they can get their Iron Ore!

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So What!!
In a bear market fundamentals go out the door for a while

Re: XAO Analysis

bean said:

So What!!
In a bear market fundamentals go out the door for a while

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Some would argue this is also the case in a bull market. The only thing that matters is whether you'll have to pay more for the asset later.

Re: XAO Analysis

bean said:

So What!!
In a bear market fundamentals go out the door for a while

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This is a volatile market, not a bear market. ASX jumped up 4% today, recovering a substantial portion of the losses over the last month. Nothing bearish about that price movement. The next low will tell us more IMO.

$750m is a long term investment pointing to continued demand for iron ore. It is as much an indicator as subprime defaults.

Which of the two will most affect Aussie miners?

Bears are far from stupid.

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:

As for those commenting on the tightness of money for Aussie Resource stocks, see my Iron thread I started today,

The Chinese just stumped up $750m for the Mid West Infrastructure plan just so they can get their Iron Ore!

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The Chinese also stumped up $3bn for a share of Blackstone. How's that one working out so far?

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:

Some would argue this is also the case in a bull market. The only thing that matters is whether you'll have to pay more for the asset later.

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Yes but what is the share price worth not knowing what you will pay for it later and if the market is in a bear !!!!
Not as much it it is a bull market.
Fundamentals go out the door
I am a Gold Bull
I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
I have watchlist coming down to my price range.
I will buy for fundamental reason for those stocks. Resourses will recover not as much and a lot of speculative stocks. Bye bye birdie could be the case.

Re: XAO Analysis

sails said:

Congratulations Mag on an great call! Even though, in hindsight, price skidded through your price support, time still worked. Now we have to see what clues we are given from here.

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Thanks Margaret,

I fully agree, we need to see what clues come out of this.

I saw that in time and price it looked like it was ripe to reverse. It didn’t hit a cycle point or key support in time or price, my “hunch” or intuition was based purely on straight charting, but with a sense of how it was moving in price and time. I expected a reversal on that day, which happened, but I didn’t envisage such a deep capitulation.

Which is why I couldn’t give the exact price projection in advance for the capitulation, however it did hit a price harmonic which became obvious once it’d happened, but this kind of move has to reveal itself to tell you which one of several possibilities is the dominant one in order to calibrate to determine the probabilities for moves that will occur into the future. Essentially I need these kind of moves to line up sufficiently to validate a pattern.

The price action on the day confirmed my view that it would reverse that day and find support. That’s what I saw in TIME (I didn’t have a price, still don’t... yet – the pattern has to unfold to a point I can do this in specific circumstances. I use time above price). People should remember that in my style, time is often more important to me than price levels. I see support and resistance in TIME.

Till people get their head around this paradigm shift, I fully expect people to think this is crazy magic voodoo stuff, rather than what it really is which is the art of understanding how markets trend in time and price, recognising cycles and importantly recognising COUNTER TRENDS (which is actually a really hard concept to learn – don’t just read the words and think about it conventionally, look beyond the obvious meaning to what I’m really getting at).

Incidentally, I just got back from Sydney, and had the visa issued on Monday, so I’m in a chaotic state of turmoil to put the permanent move into action! (Hence my lack of comments today, but just looked at the bar now).

I’d be very wary of interpreting that this move up is necessarily a resumption of the bull trend. While I see this as a possibility, I don’t see this as a probability. I remain neutral right now in a flexible posture until I can see a clear signal of either a continuation of the bull market, or a confirmation of a bear market. This move could be a counter trend to a strong bear drive in a “C” wave as presented by wavepicker.

Me, I just don’t know... yet. (Unfortunately I might have to miss all the fun since I’m moving, and may be out of commission for a while till I get set up again). But for those who can see the support and resistance as I do can trade this little turbulence long and short for a while if they know what they’re doing.

Trade_IT for example can confirm the real time identification of the majority of the recent turns in the market (particularly the S&P 500) to the day for a while now in private emails. There are other member’s I have done this with too from time to time when they have sent PMs or requested to be CC’d in on emails between wavepicker and I from time to time on subjects we let newer traders “ride shotgun” with us to help them learn, but not as financial advice to trade, but as a “back stage pass” to see us in action.

I think though that it is dangerous to assume anything at this point. However, there may be better traders out there than me who know for sure what will happen. That’s not me, I only work in probabilities, and every moment in the market is unique ala Douglas for me...

But I will say this - there is a lot of resistance around here for the XAO. Longs need to be wary if short term, and if I was trading this leg up, I’d be taking half profits off around these levels, since this could snap back hard just as easily as rally up strongly. That low needs to be tested at some point and a higher low come up convincingly with a bullish pattern before I’d be assuming anything bullish at this juncture. Even then, this could be a short lived extension of a counter trend before wavepicker’s big “C” makes the existing move look like a walk in the park. The emerging pattern will tell us a lot about what is going on, but it needs to unfold for me...

Currently I have two different dates for the XAO – 23 August or 28 August, and I’m not sure if either are relevant yet (could be just one, both, or neither). I need to see what the XAO does on these days. Whatever it does will tell me something. If I am able to I will comment around these dates before I move if possible and give my best shot interpretation on the run.

Kind Regards



Magdoran

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:

I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO

The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 Thats a 257 point Rally!

Why the lack of chat? Cat caught a few Bears tongues? I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today,

So what do we think a hard bouncing dead cat?

Or the bottom was found last week?

I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but I reckon that the "Panic" has left the market, hell today was a clear sign that greed is still prevalent in the mkts

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I wasn’t around today to comment, YT,


Many clearly indicated they saw the capitulation day as a reversal, or didn’t you read the comments on this thread? This move is an extension of that expression in the market. Surely this was a glaring probability to everyone reading this thread, and I would have thought to many that a rally up to around these levels was a high probability in the making (perhaps not so much in 1 day, but certainly in this kind of time frame).

Who needed to say anything? It’d all been said… why comment on the obvious? Even a complete novice could see what was going on. I suspect many were just too busy doing than chatting.

Please, why not give your projections in advance too, and see how you fare? That’d be fun! Maybe we can learn from you YT!


Mag

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:

Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.

"I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.

Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are weeks behind and nobody even knows their own true position.

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Fully agree Wayne...

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:

On the swings, yes. The eventual bottom remains to be seen.

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Concur...

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:

I suspect the lack of chat is because today's action was no surprise at all after what we saw in the US and Europe on Friday. A rally was fully expected. Confidence may have returned - for now, but nothing has fundamentally changed from last week. Like WayneL I see a US recession on the horizon. Another mortgage broker went belly up in the US on Saturday whilst another Hedge fund blew up in Europe today.

Maybe we've seen the bottom, maybe not, too early to tell IMHO.

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Concur...

Re: XAO Analysis

bean said:

I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
I have watchlist coming down to my price range.

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Care to name these bean? Perhaps put the list in the gold thread, with the prices you are going to buy them at. Cheers.

Re: XAO Analysis

bean said:

Fundamentals go out the door
I am a Gold Bull
I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
I have watchlist coming down to my price range.
I will buy for fundamental reason for those stocks.

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Is that REALLY you Rowan?

Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO seems to be making a run for it... Quick! break its legs!

Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:

I just got back from Sydney, and had the visa issued on Monday, so I’m in a chaotic state of turmoil to put the permanent move into action!

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You need a visa to move from Melbourne to Sydney?

Cheers,
GP

Re: XAO Analysis

6000 looks pretty important here. It we don't consolidate around here, and/or break through, then does this then turn into a five wave down? Alternately, if we break up, then correction over! Onward and upward the bull monster climbs!!

Or not...

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't think we're through yet, US Subprime/Credit jitters may persist for at least another 2 weeks, after that it'll be like Bird Flu, Korea Nuke tests or Terrorism, mkt will get used to it,

I'm not expecting a break above 6000 till end of the week, but then BHP reports full year results tomorow so could go either way on that 1 result alone!

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:

I don't think we're through yet, US Subprime/Credit jitters may persist for at least another 2 weeks...

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Then comes the next phase, as it impinges on growth.

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:

I don't think we're through yet, US Subprime/Credit jitters may persist for at least another 2 weeks

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ha, 2 weeks, your dreaming, the subprime debacle has got another 18 months to play out by itself.

Don't be surprised to see some banks blow up, a couple of hundred hedge funds blow up, and some of these private equity deals blow up etc etc