XAO Technical Analysis

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker. You had today as an important date, think as a possible high using EW. I had it pegged as danger day months back on the possibility of some nasty selling in the Materials sector. Well I was a bit late on that but still am interested to see what plays out here.

Whats your thoughts still see this time as important?

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry i cant agree with that, as the US Mortgage Carnage thread shows, the subprime issue was alive and well back in March, and well before then. So why werent people running for the hills then? No, they decide to risk their money for another 4 months? I think not. This is more a media driven beat up IMO, bad news sells papers. Not to say there isnt some effect from this subprime problem, but the general public has no real idea what lies beneath and are merely jumping at their own shadows.
Ive seen people posting the big money left the building ages a go via the back door. Well judging by the number of Insto shareholding and Director holding increases, IMO they are silently slipping back in, while the plebs quiver in their boots

Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous. Once again, another example of someone trying to justify why the market has done what it has done.

The market forces are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. Social trends are pathological, there is nothing you can do start them or stop them. All you can do is participate or get out of the way if positioned in the wrong way.

When time is up the trend must change, if it wasn’t the subprime news worsening then it would have been something else that coincided with a market peak.
The warning signs have been there for months/years that this market is an aberration, those that saw this took action earlier, those that got caught up in the trend, becoming euphoric and complacent can deal with the pain. What were they thinking anyway?? IMO they are in a denial of reality, forever looking for reasons to project the current upward trend into the future. They have only themselves to blame and should be responsible for their actions instead of looking for reasons why the market turned.
The market turned because it turned, it will do what it wants when it wants to. Trade what you see not what you want or expect to happen.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker. You had today as an important date, think as a possible high using EW. I had it pegged as danger day months back on the possibility of some nasty selling in the Materials sector. Well I was a bit late on that but still am interested to see what plays out here.

Whats your thoughts still see this time as important?

Hello TH

Yes that was 20-22nd August as high. However the time point "inverted" between that post and now. By that I mean that we got another important time point which was a high on the 31st July. Subsequently the August 20th date then became a low instead , however this came 2-3 days earlier than I expected.

The this rally should persist till the 3rd week of September, perhaps a little beyond as the next rotation which is a high is due then. The next rotation after that which should coincide with a low is appox mid November. So I am expecting the current trend up to persist if I am reading it correctly, but what sort of trend will this be?? It might be a choppy trend that chews up time until then??. Would at least expect some sort of retest of the lows,let's see.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous.

The media has no influencial in our society, including markets? I would hesitantly disagree with that brush.

Individual investors are influenced by what people say on this forum. Extrapolate that.

 

[powerkoala]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello TH

Yes that was 20-22nd August as high. However the time point "inverted" between that post and now. By that I mean that we got another important time point which was a high on the 31st July. Subsequently the August 20th date then became a low instead , however this came 2-3 days earlier than I expected.

The this rally should persist till the 3rd week of September, perhaps a little beyond as the next rotation which is a high is due then. The next rottation after that which should coincide with a low is appox mid November. So I am expecting the current trend up to persist if I am reading it correctly, but what sort of trend will this be?? It might be a choppy trend that chews up time until then??. Let's see

thanks for your analysis wavepicker.
seems that buyers convidence are back somehow.
XAO had been up for the past 3 days.
hope this is a good sign.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

The media has no influencial in our society, including markets? I would hesitantly disagree with that brush.

Individual investors are influenced by what people say on this forum. Extrapolate that.

Ohhhh the media does have influence on our society alright, but it does not move the markets. If it did then I would not waste my studying charts , just think about it Kennas just read the paper and you know what the market is gonna do the next day!!!!! If only it was that easy

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ohhhh the media does have influence on our society alright, but it does not move the markets. If it did then I would not waste my studying charts , just think about it Kennas just read the paper and you know what the market is gonna do the next day!!!!! If only it was that easy

I'm very interested in media/social dynamics and whether it's the public that moves the media, or media moving the people, and I think we could be somewhere in a whirpool situation, where one triggers the other, triggers the other, and momentum kicks in creating a vortex which sucks everything around and down with it. You can't discount the media's influence in creating a crash. If there was NO communication, and interpretation, then we'd be sitting around twiddling our thumbs, wondering what to do.

In the mean time, we'll continue to overshoot, and undershoot, and it's important to make the most of those opportunites, IMO.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous. Once again, another example of someone trying to justify why the market has done what it has done.

Almost as ridiculous as an "invisible hand" wouldn't you say?

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm very interested in media/social dynamics and whether it's the public that moves the media, or media moving the people, and I think we could be somewhere in a whirpool situation, where one triggers the other, triggers the other, and momentum kicks in creating a vortex which sucks everything around and down with it. You can't discount the media's influence in creating a crash. If there was NO communication, and interpretation, then we'd be sitting around twiddling our thumbs, wondering what to do.

In the mean time, we'll continue to overshoot, and undershoot, and it's important to make the most of those opportunites, IMO.

Kennas,

What if the devil came to you one day and gave you the newspaper headlines, big stories, economic data for the next year.

Do you think you could successfully trade the market with this information in those 12 months??? Take a headline story of a war for example, there have been headlines about war before and the market has been up a lot, and headlines before and the market has been down a lot?? How do you know??

The answer is simple, you don’t, because it just doesn’t work this way. The only things you need to know are as follows:-

-decide if the market is trending
-participating with that trend
-determine when the trend is at risk of ending

 

[Bushman]

Re: XAO Analysis

The market forces are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. Social trends are pathological, there is nothing you can do start them or stop them. All you can do is participate or get out of the way if positioned in the wrong way.

The market turned because it turned, it will do what it wants when it wants to. Trade what you see not what you want or expect to happen.

This post is remarkable. To deny a human element in market movements is ludicrous. How can you say that the market will do what it wants to when it wants to? It is not some mythical demigod to be in awe off. It is shaped by human emotion and desire as much as it is shaped by human logic. Those that can stand apart from the rhetoric will do the best. This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.

To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy. The media is the most powerful influence in our society. If you want to take media influence to an extreme, one day read about how the media was used in whipping up genocidal practices in Rwanda, Germany etc. It shapes people's decisions and taps into the primordial fearful response. What do we read about - crime, political scandal, celebrity scandal, market collapses, pandemics, global warming, Y2K. Fear sells newspapers by the truckload and what better combination than fear and financial safety.

I get the feeling that this is an argument on which neither side will budge so maybe there is not much point in writing this. But I know what has made me fearful in the current climate - screaming headlines of doom and gloom. Maybe it is just me and I am not a cold clinician of a mythical beast that does as it chooses?

 

[CFD]

Re: XAO Analysis

~~
Yes that was 20-22nd August as high. However the time point "inverted" between that post and now. ~~

Does this make the trend from now, more likely to be choppy?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Kennas,
-decide if the market is trending
-participating with that trend
-determine when the trend is at risk of ending

- It's still trending up
- I've participated in it going up
- I've done my best to participate in it going down (not very successfully - I'm crap at shorts)
- It is at risk of ending

It hasn't ended yet.

PS, this chart would look much better on a semi log.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.

I get the feeling that this is an argument on which neither side will budge so maybe there is not much point in writing this. But I know what has made me fearful in the current climate - screaming headlines of doom and gloom. Maybe it is just me and I am not a cold clinician of a mythical beast that does as it chooses?

Well, by definition no analytical analysis applied to any social science can be valid. It just depends where you classify things...

 

[CFD]

Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman, just to continue the discussion on your view,
"To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy.".

I see the media influence sending prices higher than they might otherwise be, or in a down trend sending them lower than might otherwise be the case. However I do not see them reversing anything but a minor trend.

This is one reason why I like WP's view of plotting time rather than price.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

- It's still trending up
- I've participated in it going up
- I've done my best to participate in it going down (not very successfully - I'm crap at shorts)
- It is at risk of ending

It hasn't ended yet.

PS, this chart would look much better on a semi log.

I am very happy for you Kennas,

Now please answeer the question in the last post

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Kennas,

What if the devil came to you one day and gave you the newspaper headlines, big stories, economic data for the next year.

Do you think you could successfully trade the market with this information in those 12 months???

WP, I don't quite understand the 'question'.

If ANYONE gave me the headlines for the next 12 months and it was true, I'd be all over it.

Back to the Future II material.

Oh, maybe you mean, REAL headlines.

Well, we all have the ability to judge them don't we. Some more than others. I hope I'm in the some zone.

 

[Bushman]

Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman, just to continue the discussion on your view,
"To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy.".

I see the media influence sending prices higher than they might otherwise be, or in a down trend sending them lower than might otherwise be the case. However I do not see them reversing anything but a minor trend.

This is one reason why I like WP's view of plotting time rather than price.

Sorry maybe I did not explain myself well enough.

I agree with you re the underlying trend. The media accelerates a trend by flaring up spot fires into bush fires with its screaming headlines. This is not to deny a long term trend caused by real underlying issues. To only say it is a media beat up is wrong and to deny the underlying cause and likely effect. There are sound economic arguments pointing to the fact that the US is living beyond its means. Inevitably it will have an impact on the US economy even if the US Feds relieve the pressure on market liquidity and the US consumer.

I like the idea of plotting time. In my view price movements in the real time information age or the leveraged hedge fund age will be excacerbated in the short term in times of uncertainty.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

This post is remarkable. To deny a human element in market movements is ludicrous. How can you say that the market will do what it wants to when it wants to? It is not some mythical demigod to be in awe off. It is shaped by human emotion and desire as much as it is shaped by human logic. Those that can stand apart from the rhetoric will do the best. This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.

To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy. The media is the most powerful influence in our society. If you want to take media influence to an extreme, one day read about how the media was used in whipping up genocidal practices in Rwanda, Germany etc. It shapes people's decisions and taps into the primordial fearful response. What do we read about - crime, political scandal, celebrity scandal, market collapses, pandemics, global warming, Y2K. Fear sells newspapers by the truckload and what better combination than fear and financial safety.

I get the feeling that this is an argument on which neither side will budge so maybe there is not much point in writing this. But I know what has made me fearful in the current climate - screaming headlines of doom and gloom. Maybe it is just me and I am not a cold clinician of a mythical beast that does as it chooses?

Actually I never denied human element in market movements, don’t know where you came up with this. It is combined social mood that is important. As far as logic goes, what happens in the market much of the time is far from logical. In fact what seems logical is usually what does not happen.

Yes the media has a profound impact on society, but it is not what makes markets move. Just think about it newspapers don’t usually don’t tell you what is going to happen, but what has happened. So how on earth anyone uses the media to forecast the market I have no idea.

As for analytical approach it has much merit and goes hand in hand with social science. Firstly an acceptance that there is order in the markets to some degree, and as such at times forecasts with a high probability of succeeding can be made, even though it goes against the grain of the way people such as yourself think.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

In fact what seems logical is usually what does not happen.

Aren't waves and time based on logic? Since we're getting into the nitty gritty.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

1228 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% at 6027.9 after hitting 6-day high of 6029.5 on broad-based recovery from early fall to 5964.9. Traders increasingly turning bullish, with index breaking its downtrend line at 5969.0 and leading stocks such as Macquarie Bank, National Australia Bank, CBA, also breaking downtrend lines. Traders again suspect Future Fund has been buying. Results/outlook driving surge in QBE, CSL, Downer, Allco. Short covering evident on Macquarie and Babcock & Brown. Consolidation now expected before BHP results at 0600 GMT. Some traders worried about costs, since Rio Tinto costs blew out. But others focussed on revenue growth and capital management. BHP's reaction to downtrend line, now A$35.97, critical. (DWR