XAO Technical Analysis

EZZA · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

hey guys, market has been on a rollercoaster, so wasn't expecting such a big turn around.

for those that reckon we could potentially be looking at a dead cat bounce, anyone have any projections on how low we can go?

i personally don't think we shouldn't see the market drop too much lower, but new lows are potentially on the horizon.

wayneL · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

EZZA said:
hey guys, market has been on a rollercoaster, so wasn't expecting such a big turn around.

for those that reckon we could potentially be looking at a dead cat bounce, anyone have any projections on how low we can go?

i personally don't think we shouldn't see the market drop too much lower, but new lows are potentially on the horizon.

That's the $64,000,000 question... literally, because if anyone new that, $64,000,000 would be easy to bag.

We may have seen the bottom, we may eventually see 3,500, or any point in between.

Nobody knows.

tech/a · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Wayne

Those here havent been that far off the mark!!

wayneL · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Wayne

Those here havent been that far off the mark!!

On the swings, yes. The eventual bottom remains to be seen.

chops_a_must · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.

"I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.

Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are weeks behind and nobody even knows their own true position.

I'm not convinced.

Not enough volume for my liking. The rate of buyers today was well below the rate at which people were prepared to sell.

The only one of my blue chips that I follow that had above average volume was ZFX. Perhaps it's short covering? I wouldn't know...

Kauri · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

For some strange reason I actually like the volume.... looks positive to me...
Cheers
..........Kauri

numbercruncher · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Found this interesting ...

The credit crunch has raised the cost of mortgages even for borrowers with pristine credit and put further downward pressure on home prices. David Adamo, CEO of Luxury Mortgage, a mortgage banker in Connecticut, says that three months ago he could sell a high-quality $3 million mortgage to 20 different banks at an interest rate of 6.75%. Today only two will even consider buying the loans, and they want 10%.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/17/markets/risk_returns.fortune/index.htm

You can see why people like RAMS are having such a hard time and getting hammered on there stock prices, we are still to see many of the RAMifications of all this imho

bean · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

EZZA said:
hey guys, market has been on a rollercoaster, so wasn't expecting such a big turn around.

for those that reckon we could potentially be looking at a dead cat bounce, anyone have any projections on how low we can go?

i personally don't think we shouldn't see the market drop too much lower, but new lows are potentially on the horizon.

Nothing much has changed from last week. The Fed lowered the rates because the money they were throwing at the banks/markets was not getting to the smaller banks and financial institutions. It was to ease pressure for the financial markets.

Code:

To stop the possiblity of a Crash not to start a rally.

If the FED were so concern they would had lowered the rate sooner.
But they got concerned as the market was on the brink.

Markets hate uncertain times and they have plenty of it at the moment.

tech/a · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
On the swings, yes. The eventual bottom remains to be seen.

Well I guess we now know the swings and when we know the eventual bottom we will know how close the analysis presented here was/is.

dhukka · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO

The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 Thats a 257 point Rally!

Why the lack of chat? Cat caught a few Bears tongues? I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today,

So what do we think a hard bouncing dead cat?

Or the bottom was found last week?

I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but I reckon that the "Panic" has left the market, hell today was a clear sign that greed is still prevalent in the mkts

I suspect the lack of chat is because today's action was no surprise at all after what we saw in the US and Europe on Friday. A rally was fully expected. Confidence may have returned - for now, but nothing has fundamentally changed from last week. Like WayneL I see a US recession on the horizon. Another mortgage broker went belly up in the US on Saturday whilst another Hedge fund blew up in Europe today.

Maybe we've seen the bottom, maybe not, too early to tell IMHO.

numbercruncher · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

6:44am: Stock futures point to flat open after big gain that followed Fed cut to discount rate; overseas markets jump.

http://money.cnn.com/index.html

YOUNG_TRADER · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Strange all this talk of eventual bottom etc while here I am thinking where will the eventual top be?

I whole heartedly agree we are not out of the woods yet, however feel that the drops where overdone, especially in the Blue Chip end of the market,

Looks like I'm a lone Stronger for Longer Resource Bull

numbercruncher · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Nothing wrong with being a resource bull, Iron ore for the win!!

Damn site better bet than Financials anyway (>:

bean · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

I am still a resource sector bull
However
Mining companies or explorers need money they chew it up at a fast rate
Money is now tight and will become tighter
How will they raise money (options won't that dilute the stock)
If US goes into a recession yes demand will be there from developing countries but demand will be less.
Why are resource stock hit harder in a downturn people wan't to get liquid.
And the resource is in the ground (it may not come out) you have valued a company base on its resource (based on the resource coming out of the ground)

Bushman · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

bean said:
Money is now tight and will become tighter
QUOTE]

I am yet to see any evidence of money being tight for bankable resource feasos. Please give me an example of a project not getting off the ground in recent times where JORC estimates and production costs made for a viable project?

Yes money is tighter for acquisitions and some banks/mortgage loan companies have been caught with shonky debt on their balance sheets that they cannot move on but Chinese investors keep picking up the tab to lock in Aussie resource supplies.

Sure the US will go into a recession at some stage. Exponential growth is an impossibility. Yet to see a plausible short to medium timeframe for this prediction though.

My vote is short term volatility leading to business as usual for aussie miners, esp base metals and gold.

Now if some of these iron ore projects not longer get the finance in place from Chinese steel manufacturers, then I will accept that money is tight. Has not happened yet.

Still a resource bull even if a few more hedge funds and mortgage funds go belly up. Risk has been substantially repriced already.

wayneL · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:
bean said:

Money is now tight and will become tighter

Click to expand...

I am yet to see any evidence of money being tight for bankable resource feasos. Please give me an example of a project not getting off the ground in recent times where JORC estimates and production costs made for a viable project?

Yes money is tighter for acquisitions and some banks/mortgage loan companies have been caught with shonky debt on their balance sheets that they cannot move on but Chinese investors keep picking up the tab to lock in Aussie resource supplies.

Sure the US will go into a recession at some stage. Exponential growth is an impossibility. Yet to see a plausible short to medium timeframe for this prediction though.

My vote is short term volatility leading to business as usual for aussie miners, esp base metals and gold.

Now if some of these iron ore projects not longer get the finance in place from Chinese steel manufacturers, then I will accept that money is tight. Has not happened yet.

Still a resource bull even if a few more hedge funds and mortgage funds go belly up. Risk has been substantially repriced already.

LOL

That would be valid comment 3-6 months from now. Give it some time, then we'll see if it is affecting projects or not.

bean · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:
bean said:

Money is now tight and will become tighter
QUOTE]

I am yet to see any evidence of money being tight for bankable resource feasos. Please give me an example of a project not getting off the ground in recent times where JORC estimates and production costs made for a viable project?

Click to expand...

Can't - But when you invest in a resource stock (junior and explorer) your main uplift in price comes from discoveries and Jorg/resource and greater price rise if the resources is in "demand"

My quote money is tighter and will become tigher - evidence does/will not happen overnight but in months to come, and investors in those are not investing at today or tomorrow but what months years to come a company may not mine the resource for a few years so in a current climate these stocks a vunerable.
You get in a bear market enviroment invester will be unsure for a period. All the speculative stock jumped big today (but they fell big)

If the US markets reverse again expect those stocks to drop harder

This sub prime thing in the US will be with us for months to come.

And each passing day China....It has a rather large bubble...POP

Awesomandy · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
I'm not convinced.

Not enough volume for my liking. The rate of buyers today was well below the rate at which people were prepared to sell.

There would be quite a few buys to cover around today, I think. As for the volume, well, it's like we are at the farms. Produce has been increasing steadily, and there were bumper crops/livestocks for a few years. Then, suddenly, the rain stopped coming. There's now a drought, and all the farmers are selling their livestocks, since they have no grass/hay to feed them.

Just when things are starting to look very bleak, there's a downpour lasting 3 days. Farmers rejoyce, and the livestocks market shoot up. A lot of farmers are now holding onto their sheep, cows, etc, hoping that the worst is over, and that more rain would come. At the same time, you have those who are off-loading their livestocks since the higher prices can cover their mortgages, and that, after years of bumper seasons, they believe the drought is likely to continue to a while yet.

Nobody knows if the drought is over or not, but, given historical weather patterns, in Australia, chances are that the drought is not over yet. I sometimes wonder if there's a correlation between farming and the share market. Shares are called stocks, and the most steady blue chips can be called cash-cows as well. Coincidence? I think not!

numbercruncher · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Perhaps the lower volume is the direct result of contracting credit markets, less (borrowed) money available to "snap up the bargains" ?

Kauri · 20 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Perhaps the low volume meant that there were not many sellers, and the fact that the close was at the top of a very tall bar means that the buyers had to keep chasing, bidding higher....
Cheers
.......Kauri

XAO Technical Analysis

EZZA

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

Kauri

E/W Learner

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

bean

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

dhukka

numbercruncher

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YOUNG_TRADER

numbercruncher

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bean

Bushman

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

bean

Awesomandy

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

Kauri

E/W Learner

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