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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

For those interested in EW, this is my take on the long term pattern of the XAO. It calls for a third wave to have just completed. The alternate scenario calls for a 5 wave structure to have completed. Makes little difference really because both have bearish implications for the short to medium term, only the degree of trend is different.

In this chart one case see what I have labelled as red wave 2(crash of 87). This was a savage correction as most wave 2's are. In Elliott parlance though, it's a strong guideline that if wave 2 is sharp, then wave 4(red wave 4 in this case which is now) might be a sideways or complex move. This is why IMO this market will be choppy and had to navigate for investors in the next few years. Now this is not cast in stone, it just happens more often than not. It happened in the DJIA in the late 60's after the 20 year bull run out of the depression lows, running into then late 70's (the so called bear market of the 70's) which was a choppy sideways mess that made buy and holders very frustrated.

The interesting aspect of this chart, is that if this is actually the case then this is the first leg down if this ends up being a sideways market eventually.This might finish around 4450/4500 if it turns out as expected(0.382 level).

In post #1002 I posted another chart of the XAO. This was a statistical Cycle analysis chart. That chart measures an intrument as it moves from one extreme to another, similar to a pendulum. You will notice that the lowest of the 3 green lines under the pink line is also 4450/4500 and has confluence with this chart( @ the 0.382 fib level of the range of the red 3rd wave) Just looking at this chart, it's clear to see that the price data is "contained" between the outer bounds of these envelopes 95% of the time. As such it would have a very low probability of staying out of these bounds for an extended period.

Just some ideas
 

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  • XAO Long Term EW Count.jpg
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Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Although it could explain the "hardware" being "installed".
Click to expand...

I actually can't believe they did that in the middle of the day in this market...was anyone else who watches the SPI noticing anything odd with their feeds prior to the outage???
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The most stupid thing I ever saw. Why?
It would be a stupid thing to do on flat week but now???
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Waves.
A good longterm snap shot.
The retracement could well be 50% or 61.8% in the extreme.
However currently 38.2 is the first longterm level to watch,until proven otherwise.
This ensuing bear market is likely to last years.
I've seen a couple of counts Waves and all as you do see this as a wave 3 correcting to wave 4 in the longterm.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
I actually can't believe they did that in the middle of the day in this market...was anyone else who watches the SPI noticing anything odd with their feeds prior to the outage???
Click to expand...

everything was fine. They even gave us advance warning of the outage. The exchange should be able to cope with the high volume at the moment, as volume at rollover time is higher than what we saw today.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Is anybody aware of the beautiful swan dive that the USD/JPY pair just did?

SPI Futures down too, just went short....again

Cheers,
 

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  • Spot FX (mini) USD_JPY (aug16).png
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Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
traders in NY just showed up for work
Click to expand...

I think this thing could go alot lower...we're still not to the May 06 lows yet...with the possibility/rumour of a US rate cut on traders minds...who knows how low it could go...i think its being priced in now
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This one is for those of you out there like me who earn your money in yen. I'm no chartist but this looks very pretty indeed.
 

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  • AUD vs JPY.jpg
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Re: XAO Analysis

The AUD/JPY just crapped itself. The XAO could be following suit big time tomorrow if the AUD doesn't jump back within the weekly channel starting from 2000.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis



Thanks Tech, as you say the fib level might well be important. Not just from an EW viewpoint but togther with the confluence of other methodologies too.

My thinking is this market has made a capitulation low today or if it hasn't then will do in 2-3 days after a few minor subdivsions are mopped up. Perhaps use this as springboard for a countertrend rally into late Sept/early October before another major wave C leg takes hold on the downside. There seems to be a major timecycle termination in November which might finish this leg down.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

How long do you guys think the bounce will last... or is it a return to the bulls?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka, halcheln, CanOz,

Staring slackjawed at the JPY/EVERYTHING action.

This is not good.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
dhukka, halcheln, CanOz,

Staring slackjawed at the JPY/EVERYTHING action.

This is not good.
Click to expand...

On the contrary wayne - great stuff. Actually the AUD/JPY is only back to where it was in September last year - hoping for a little more strength in the yen yet.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:
How long do you guys think the bounce will last... or is it a return to the bulls?
Click to expand...

LOL OMG that is such an optimistic point of view its nearly absurd to even consider after today and the sheer panic that set in, the bulls have well and truly been put in their pens, bargain hunters out in force this arvo. Peoples faith in the ASX has been rattled to the bone and will take a long time for them to have the confidence to face the market again, especially mum and dad investors. I dont think we have seen the worst, but are not far off it IMO. I hope the bulls do return, but this was a purge we needed to have
 
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