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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like the market doesnt want to go below 5800.
Now starting to pickup.

I havent got access to all my stats (as im at work)

But can anyone tell us what the drop has been since the high point to todays so far reached low. Also % drop would be nice.
From memory it was 6450 to 5838..

So down a lil over 600 points, which is almost 10%.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

well, i guess it's time to say goodbye to everyone
see you next year or when market goes north again

- just kidding -
:eek:

support 5800, if this break, then i really dunno what will happen to our lovely market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

How about some calming words from some Bulls? you know the Kind "china is still strong", "this is just a correction" "Company's are still making money" Come on guys where are you?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
How about some calming words from some Bulls? you know the Kind "china is still strong", "this is just a correction" "Company's are still making money" Come on guys where are you?
Click to expand...


ABN Amro Morgans private client adviser Bill Bishop said concerns about the US subprime market have taken their toll on the Australian stock market.
``An acceleration in subprime woes in America have floated across the Pacific and the financials are being hit,'' he said.
``Nothing's been left alone. You could really say there have been significant falls across virtually all sectors.
''(But) it was odds on it was going to be a bad day after America's rather precipitous fall last night.''
Mr Bishop said that, with the reporting season going well, the slump was sure to end.
``It will finish,'' he said.
``We've had a volatile market for three or four weeks now and it's probably going to remain that way, but the good stocks are doing well, the reporting season is going well. It's just unfortunately not holding the market up, but that's life.
``Sanity will prevail in the end.''
 
Re: XAO Analysis

well, if everyone didn't sell, the price won't go down right?
so who still believe in bulls here?
i do, but the rest of the market don't :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
well, if everyone didn't sell, the price won't go down right?
so who still believe in bulls here?
i do, but the rest of the market don't :D
Click to expand...

You might find that those with confidence just prefer not to jump up and down and make a lot of noise.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
well, if everyone didn't sell, the price won't go down right?
so who still believe in bulls here?
i do, but the rest of the market don't :D
Click to expand...

I havn't bought nor sold yet. I have made that mistake in corrections before jumping in too early.

Look a the materials correction last year - how long did it run?

Answer - Mid May to late September - remember BHP found support at $24 after peaking at $32 mid May. I had puitchased parcells of the stock thoughout the whole period (testing to say the least), which I am still sitting on. Whith the amount of influence BHP has on the XAO we had better hope that it holds.

Don't ask me how much further this has to go, I have no idea. When a few punters thought the sky would fall in during the Feb correction there was talk of firm support a t 5400 - I think this was Kennas's number from memory.

It my belief that things like leveraged investments, CFD's, margin loans, and "stop losses" are the greatest reasons for the modern markets over-correcting. How many of you have been stopped out on trades since early August? How many of you have sold stock to cover margin calls?

I'm still a bull, however it will far more cautiously.

Good luck to all those long
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Bush Trader said:
I havn't bought nor sold yet. I have made that mistake in corrections before jumping in too early.

Look a the materials correction last year - how long did it run?

Answer - Mid May to late September - remember BHP found support at $24 after peaking at $32 mid May. I had puitchased parcells of the stock thoughout the whole period (testing to say the least), which I am still sitting on. Whith the amount of influence BHP has on the XAO we had better hope that it holds.

Don't ask me how much further this has to go, I have no idea. When a few punters thought the sky would fall in during the Feb correction there was talk of firm support a t 5400 - I think this was Kennas's number from memory.

It my belief that things like leveraged investments, CFD's, margin loans, and "stop losses" are the greatest reasons for the modern markets over-correcting. How many of you have been stopped out on trades since early August? How many of you have sold stock to cover margin calls?

I'm still a bull, however it will far more cautiously.

Good luck to all those long
Click to expand...

I'm guessing the "correction" will end when people stop comparing this to previous ones.
This is different. This was distribution then a fall. Not a run up of hot money and an Unwinding of leverage. This is a bubble bursting in credit, not a nasty pull back and run higher which in its self is a part of a bubble. Bubbles do not unwind in three weeks and when they involve hard assets (US houses) they tend to have effects on the world economy.

Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.
Click to expand...

The problem is credit (and the housing wealth effect) has fueled the spending boom that has seen profits rise. I would expect the credit issues to subside in the day to day headlines and the XAO to recover over the next weeks... the question is has the debt bubble let the cat out of the bag from a fundamental point... and will this cause the market pshycology to change...

Self fullfilling prophecies and confidence work both in the upwards direction and down

TJ
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This may be of interest


Aussie Equities Support At 5798

Source:FN Arena News - August 15 2007

The Tech Wizard notes the local market continues to be plagued by the fallout of what once used to be known as the US subprime crisis. It is now in its 4th week of ongoing turbulence.
From a technical point of view he says key support for the XJO (S&P/ASX200 index) is at the 38.2% retracement at 5798. If this level would be broken the next support lies at the 50% retracement at 5600.
(A special note for non-tech heads who are wondering how a market that only fell a few percentages can have a retracement level of 38%. The Tech Wizard explains the level is calculated from the last major low back in June 2006 at 4760 to the high four weeks ago at 6436).

He believes only time will tell whether the current “correction” will turn out the advent of something sinister or simply the mother of all buying opportunities
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

IMO there would have to be a cat bouncing off a stair tomorrow morning. :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
I'm guessing the "correction" will end when people stop comparing this to previous ones.
This is different. This was distribution then a fall. Not a run up of hot money and an Unwinding of leverage. This is a bubble bursting in credit, not a nasty pull back and run higher which in its self is a part of a bubble. Bubbles do not unwind in three weeks and when they involve hard assets (US houses) they tend to have effects on the world economy.
Click to expand...

Yes I agree with you, however there has been alot of punter and fund money on the sidelines waiting for this, entrys and exits only add to the volatility in my opinion.


Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.
Click to expand...

I suppose that's why they call it a credit cycle


Cheers


BT
 
Re: XAO Analysis

First close below the 200 day ema since the begining of this bull market. Signs are not looking to good technically. obviously the next critical level is around 5800 so will be keenly waiting to see what happens.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

It's amazing how absurd our Aussie overreaction is to the US market. Look at this All Ordinaries vs the Dow Jones. Today is just ridiculous. 9.5 % down compared to 1 month ago vs 6.3% down for the Dow Jones.

OR are Aussies smarter and ahead of the US - and they're just lagging behind us.... :confused: I don't think so.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well here we are again, essentially at the bottom of the channel that's been in place since early 2003, and where each of the other main corrections has turned back into a new uptrend.

It's already broken the 200 day MA, so for me this level is now important. If it drops below the channel, my longs will be off and packed in moth balls for a while! :p:

Cheers,
GP
 

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