Trembling Hand
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Looks bullish to me TH..LOL! I read somewhere that it was good to look at charts inverted to see if you had reverse analysis...where was that?
So TH, you think today was as much of a retrace as we'll get?
Cheers,
Looks bullish to me TH..LOL! I read somewhere that it was good to look at charts inverted to see if you had reverse analysis...where was that?
So TH, you think today was as much of a retrace as we'll get?
Cheers,
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Really not sure here. Stack of resistance above us (old range support from May to June, Most of the MAs, old highs etc) that's not news to anyone. What worries me is a lots of the Sub-sectors have completely broken down, Financials, Con Disc, Con Stable, Mid caps. Energy looks to be following. The only thing holding up the XAO from crossing that 200 MA is the Industrials and Materials. got BHPs report on the 22nd as a important date, sell the news good or bad?
I see no reason to load up on longs here, chance of rally straight back up without a retest and therefore a chance to get in are very slim. But then again it does worry me that a lot of people think the same. That is a rally then roll over. I would be very disappointed if Mr market played out the way we want it to.
Would love a June the 14th 06 kind of day. When we open down big like the world is coming to an end and then the big boys come out and go nuts to carry us back to finish up and save the day.
Really not sure here. Stack of resistance above us (old range support from May to June, Most of the MAs, old highs etc) that's not news to anyone. What worries me is a lots of the Sub-sectors have completely broken down, Financials, Con Disc, Con Stable, Mid caps. Energy looks to be following. The only thing holding up the XAO from crossing that 200 MA is the Industrials and Materials. got BHPs report on the 22nd as a important date, sell the news good or bad?
I see no reason to load up on longs here, chance of rally straight back up without a retest and therefore a chance to get in are very slim. But then again it does worry me that a lot of people think the same. That is a rally then roll over. I would be very disappointed if Mr market played out the way we want it to.
Would love a June the 14th 06 kind of day. When we open down big like the world is coming to an end and then the big boys come out and go nuts to carry us back to finish up and save the day.
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Oh and another thing. We have some 375,000 contracts out on the SPI. That is about 25% more than the rest of the year. and nearly double what it was through last year. that's a lot of rocket juice to put under this baby on an up move or a lot of fuel for a real blow up. Its been very interesting that on balance we have not had any real short covering or exiting of longs but the opposite an increase of postions. Both SPI Bulls and Bears seem to still be confident of winning this game.
Oh and another thing. We have some 375,000 contracts out on the SPI. That is about 25% more than the rest of the year. and nearly double what it was through last year. that's a lot of rocket juice to put under this baby on an up move or a lot of fuel for a real blow up. Its been very interesting that on balance we have not had any real short covering or exiting of longs but the opposite an increase of postions. Both SPI Bulls and Bears seem to still be confident of winning this game.
Re: XAO Analysis
Oddly enough I do this to bullish charts since I seem to have a bearish bias sometimes…
Interestingly wavepicker and I did this on occasions after the Feb 23 2007 high. Ironically it looked a lot like this chart… I’m not sure what that means – (I ignore MAs by the way).
What we need on this chart is volume though, that can tell you a great deal about what is going on.
It’s funny, but some people who’d come over to see some charts one day thought I must have been vain because I had a mirror on my computer desk… until I told them to hold it up to their head on an angle so they could look at the inverted image on the screen!
Mag
Inverting charts is really interesting to do, and I do this occasionally to see if my analysis changes.
Oddly enough I do this to bullish charts since I seem to have a bearish bias sometimes…
Interestingly wavepicker and I did this on occasions after the Feb 23 2007 high. Ironically it looked a lot like this chart… I’m not sure what that means – (I ignore MAs by the way).
What we need on this chart is volume though, that can tell you a great deal about what is going on.
It’s funny, but some people who’d come over to see some charts one day thought I must have been vain because I had a mirror on my computer desk… until I told them to hold it up to their head on an angle so they could look at the inverted image on the screen!
Mag
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hi Mag,
I guess too many people here have forgotten what a bearish chart actually looks like. Just about about everything has been bullish for the last 4 years!!
That's why I also like to look at many other markets that are very volatile such as FX, teaches you to be unbiased!!
Hi Mag,
I guess too many people here have forgotten what a bearish chart actually looks like. Just about about everything has been bullish for the last 4 years!!
That's why I also like to look at many other markets that are very volatile such as FX, teaches you to be unbiased!!
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Re: XAO Analysis
That is very true. In fact, for newbies like myself, I've never been through a crash or an extended bear market. I like to think that I know quite a bit about the theory side of things, but the condition like we have now is definitely providing a great learning experience.
That is very true. In fact, for newbies like myself, I've never been through a crash or an extended bear market. I like to think that I know quite a bit about the theory side of things, but the condition like we have now is definitely providing a great learning experience.
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Re: XAO Analysis
That's the Damn truth WP,
FX has really helped me in that regard, looking at all different types of markets and market situations.
Cheers
That's the Damn truth WP,
FX has really helped me in that regard, looking at all different types of markets and market situations.
Cheers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well insider, I’m the first to admit my mistakes and when we where talking the other day I could not understand why you where dumping all your shares, but after you explaining this to myself, it became more clear why you where going through this process.
Well until yesterday I was looking to hold my shares long term and I was adamant that there was no reason to sell based on company fundamentals. Well after the market close yesterday that changed. I now know how you where feeling, some of my stocks dropped up to 15% yesterday and this was a big hit for my profile, but I decided to hold on as my total portfolio was down 14.51% at close and the market was looking it could turn either way over the next few days.
But this morning when I woke up and read the dow being down another 200%, made me think I need to sell my stocks due to the fact I'm now watching my money fall lower and lower and with 14.51% of my portfolio gone, what’s going to happen today maybe I could be at 20% loss on my portfolio.
So insider I guess before I had not experienced what you had and now I think I’m in the same boat it's time for me to bail the ship before I loose more.
That said the companies I have invested in are all companies I believe have value to add when the market corrects it self. But I guess now I'm asking myself when will that be and how much do I need to loose before it happens and will this come back to the prices I bought at... These are the questions going through my head when looking at my bank balance.
I guess this is just one of the learning processes of dealing in the share market. Thanks again for people’s comments looks like I’m going to be sitting on the side line for the moment, washing windows at traffice lights trying to get some money back or until I can see a chnage in the market.
Well insider, I’m the first to admit my mistakes and when we where talking the other day I could not understand why you where dumping all your shares, but after you explaining this to myself, it became more clear why you where going through this process.
Well until yesterday I was looking to hold my shares long term and I was adamant that there was no reason to sell based on company fundamentals. Well after the market close yesterday that changed. I now know how you where feeling, some of my stocks dropped up to 15% yesterday and this was a big hit for my profile, but I decided to hold on as my total portfolio was down 14.51% at close and the market was looking it could turn either way over the next few days.
But this morning when I woke up and read the dow being down another 200%, made me think I need to sell my stocks due to the fact I'm now watching my money fall lower and lower and with 14.51% of my portfolio gone, what’s going to happen today maybe I could be at 20% loss on my portfolio.
So insider I guess before I had not experienced what you had and now I think I’m in the same boat it's time for me to bail the ship before I loose more.
That said the companies I have invested in are all companies I believe have value to add when the market corrects it self. But I guess now I'm asking myself when will that be and how much do I need to loose before it happens and will this come back to the prices I bought at... These are the questions going through my head when looking at my bank balance.
I guess this is just one of the learning processes of dealing in the share market. Thanks again for people’s comments looks like I’m going to be sitting on the side line for the moment, washing windows at traffice lights trying to get some money back or until I can see a chnage in the market.
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Re: XAO Analysis
If the XAO follows the dows lead today it will likely close below its 200 day SMA for the fist time since the bull run started.... but it should still be above the 200 day EMA.
I'm not a technical person, but if it doesn't bounce off these levels this and next week (and continues to fall lower) then it is likely that it would signal a pshycological change in market sentiment???
TJ
If the XAO follows the dows lead today it will likely close below its 200 day SMA for the fist time since the bull run started.... but it should still be above the 200 day EMA.
I'm not a technical person, but if it doesn't bounce off these levels this and next week (and continues to fall lower) then it is likely that it would signal a pshycological change in market sentiment???
TJ
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Re: XAO Analysis
I think we are getting awfully close to down ward pressure feeding off itself because of bad sentiment.
Speculative stocks with no income are getting pounded , worse to come i fear ....
I think we are getting awfully close to down ward pressure feeding off itself because of bad sentiment.
Speculative stocks with no income are getting pounded , worse to come i fear ....
chops_a_must
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Re: XAO Analysis
It looks like this morning has just about put the final nail in the coffin of this market. It's clear this credit crunch is not going to ease... so now I'd say we are in Wavepicker's W3 down.
Only trades I am in now are free carries.
It's going to be a good (don't really mean that) couple of weeks before the dust settles IMO.
The next few months will be very interesting.
Yeah.
It looks like this morning has just about put the final nail in the coffin of this market. It's clear this credit crunch is not going to ease... so now I'd say we are in Wavepicker's W3 down.
Only trades I am in now are free carries.
It's going to be a good (don't really mean that) couple of weeks before the dust settles IMO.
The next few months will be very interesting.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Re: XAO Analysis
We had that...
and now it's through with momentum...
This is going to get nasty.
We had that...
and now it's through with momentum...
This is going to get nasty.
chops_a_must
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Re: XAO Analysis
That 58ish level was of the XJO. The XAO retracement was above 59ish.
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Is that the capitulation we had to have?
I'm playing the bottom picking game here.
:microwave
Is that the capitulation we had to have?
I'm playing the bottom picking game here.
:microwave
chops_a_must
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Re: XAO Analysis
5800, 5600, 5390, and if it does really really crash, just above 5100.
I'd be looking at these as levels of importance for the XAO:
5800, 5600, 5390, and if it does really really crash, just above 5100.