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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks wave picker...

How do you all think tomorrow will go in terms of the XAO? will it go down or will it go up?

The reason why I ask is because I've noticed that easy access market information like The Herald Sun News paper or television seem to have a positive view that markets will recover soon and everything is cheap so buy up! whilst harder to get reports seem to be bearish contradicting the other info.

What are your thoughts? I guess we will see who is telling the truth...

My opinion is the harder to find info is more accurate but that's my opinion...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well if all the smh readers belive there are bargains to be had, we should see an up day. Something to do with lemmings theory...

I personally am of the view that the aussie market has overreacted, and likewuse the US overreacted to news from the french bank and so on and so on. On the day the French bank frose the funds, the french index almost held steady, but the US and aussie tanked big time?? If the loss has been transferred to the French bank, why are the aussies and yanks worried (although I appreciate they may just see this as the tip of the ice berg).

The lesson learnt from all this is that markets are driven by sentiment. It now appears the price of many shares may be below their value.

What advice would i give client's if i was a paid financial adviser? I would have to be conservative and warn of a bear market. If you tell you client's to invest in bargains and they loose their money i would not expect to see them again.... I guess the only way to cover yourself is to predict the market will be volatile.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:
How do you all think tomorrow will go in terms of the XAO? will it go down or will it go up?
Click to expand...

Up. I think world markets will interpret the lack of selling pressure below 1455 on the S&P500 on Friday as bullish. The drive down by a few of the top XAO shares I've been watching like BHP, RIO and WPL look just about exhausted, for now.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think it will go down... 3.7% down for the ftse... crazy... and the sp500 only finished in the green due to late buying by CBs... so the real value of sentiment is masked...
 
Re: XAO Analysis



Who knows insider, perhaps open lower and finish stronger in the arvo?? Posted some ideas in post #996
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think because of the dramatic fall Friday, 'bargain hunters' will push it up, maybe 50 points. Managed Funds who are cashed up, and the Future Fund will be investing pretty heavy for the long term, IMO. Mums and dads, amateur retail investors, and those needing to pay off margin calls are selling now. I'm probably going to be selling!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
SPI bounced off the 5,830 area o/night, up to 5,970's so Monday could see a short covering rally
Click to expand...

Always possible but I'm not counting on it. The only real short covering I have seen recently was on 7th and that didn't create any great rally. Thou it was at the start of the 3 up days. Which they then reloaded before Friday. The Shorts on the SPI have been spot on since we have hit the highs back in Mid July and I would think they will not fold so easily. Any strength during this week will just give them another re-load point.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I am a bear in a bull suit but I see things leaning into the bear den while the market is still going quite well. 'Quite well', I here you scream? Even after the last weeks volatility, what % gain have we made the past calander and FY?

Of course, past performance is no indication of future performance, but it's better than guestimates of events that have not occurred, on assumptions not yet proven half reliable.



Correction in a long term bull.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The reserve bank are scheduled to release the new inflation rate tonight... things will be interesting tomorrow...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

bit of a run out of the blocks today - but looking for it to run out of steam around here
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
bit of a run out of the blocks today - but looking for it to run out of steam around here
Click to expand...

I was thinking a bounce now (6020 on my 5 minute chart) into 6057 ish and then short it...but i can't be around to watch it.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

yeah you don't want to be away from it in these markets unless you're stop is at evens.

how did you get on with the Hang Seng closing early on you?

ASX turned back by the .618 retrace of last weeks drop - lets see if its got the legs to push on through it now
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Market looking to turn weak now after it seems like it may be rejecting the 50% retracement level from last Monday's lows to the temporary highs last Friday. Crucial support now the 200 day EMA and after today's weakish efforts, we may be seeing these levels either tommorow or again very soon.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
how did you get on with the Hang Seng closing early on you?
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Not well, IG has refused to budge, virtually insinuating that i should have had the intellegence to realise that they had defaulted to the MM data from the S&P 500 futures, even though that data was not represented on the screen in any way.

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
Not well, IG has refused to budge, virtually insinuating that i should have had the intellegence to realise that they had defaulted to the MM data from the S&P 500 futures, even though that data was not represented on the screen in any way.

Cheers,
Click to expand...

oh thats a shame - typical hey. how would you have ended up had the market not closed early? I saw your chart on the other thread and it'd broken out of your channel and put in a higher low
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
oh thats a shame - typical hey. how would you have ended up had the market not closed early? I saw your chart on the other thread and it'd broken out of your channel and put in a higher low
Click to expand...

I've actually got that chart too, the market dropped considerably, if i would have caught 2/3 of the move down, i would have banked about 31,000 HKD!

Would have been a nice result from my first HS trade. My IB application is completed and i just have to supply a few details. I'm keen to short this next move, but if i'm not prepared then i'll let it go. I reckon it will take a while to become familiar with another platform.

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis


oh no, sorry to hear that Can - bummer. make sure you get a paper trading account with IB.

be very careful with Hang Seng holding over lunch breaks & out of hours, it can put in some huge gaps between sessions
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
oh no, sorry to hear that Can - bummer. make sure you get a paper trading account with IB.

be very careful with Hang Seng holding over lunch breaks & out of hours, it can put in some huge gaps between sessions
Click to expand...

Good idea Edwood on the paper trading account. I need to practice my edge until i can execute it blindfolded...

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
Good idea Edwood on the paper trading account. I need to practice my edge until i can execute it blindfolded...

Cheers,
Click to expand...

Just be careful if you are going to look at the HK futs canuck- sim trading fills can sometimes be quite different to what you will get in real trading.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

professor_frink said:
Just be careful if you are going to look at the HK futs canuck- sim trading fills can sometimes be quite different to what you will get in real trading.
Click to expand...

Thanks Prof, great advice as always.

Cheers,
 
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