XAO Technical Analysis

Chipp · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
i'll be there ( in the market ) but M&A activity looks like some profits will be crystallized ( only one take-over deal i have been entangled in has stalled ) some divs. are due , i will have some reserves , but will they be enough ?

but i WILL be treading very carefully ( i don't expect many bargains in places i want to buy , but i have been wrong before )

Fair point here divs , the graphic i have posted is not div adjusted so that return in end with be around the maybe 2% level higher at end day , it's not huge but it is something . Someone who collects divs might be able to tell me the exact number of exdivs in that period , ive just made a rough guess tbh .

When i have the time i will do this same exploration on XAO total return index and give the 'real' returns , divs aside that slump in the centre of that graphic will still exist though , just not as deep , the end result be a bit higher

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

in many cases anything short of a big meltdown , will not get me better entry points i have already achieved in the previous 12 years , now i have some reserve cash , i feel it is better to carefully place cash in the best places to average down in the few places available ( like maybe KGN IGO , SHV as examples where a 20% drop might be attractive )

there is a dim chance of $20 MQG , $1.10 TNE , 35 cent JYC , $14 MIN again without massive chaos in the markets

Chipp · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
in many cases anything short of a big meltdown , will not get me better entry points i have already achieved in the previous 12 years , now i have some reserve cash , i feel it is better to carefully place cash in the best places to average down in the few places available ( like maybe KGN IGO , SHV as examples where a 20% drop might be attractive )

there is a dim chance of $20 MQG , $1.10 TNE , 35 cent JYC , $14 MIN again without massive chaos in the markets

I have no idea what you hold but some large caps are down amounts from highs that would be called a crash/bear if index was down same . Top50 has more stocks that have been down from Highs 20% ytd than you'd think .. BHP BSL DXS FMG (-40%) JHX MGR MIN (-36%) NST PLS RHC S32 SEK SHL WDS WOW . There are a couple who were close to 20% not on the list . This gleaned from companies currently in XFL , i havent looked to see whats dropped out YTD so there effectively might be a couple i have missed here . The top200 list down 20% + from highs is going to be reflective of the top50% i would imagine . You can time markets , not saying its easy . Having a plan so you know what to do before it happens may make this easier to handle fwiw . Sort of ,makes you wonder how the XJO is as high as it is but rotation into banks huge part of that i'd imagine .

A bit of code that measure % drop from 'x' period highs screened across the constituents of whatever indice is of note makes this an easy task to monitor ..... market telemetry . If you dont measure you dont find , you want returns like top level proactive professional you need to start doing the things that separates them from the crowd . As a small fund you have distinct advantages the big guys dont , they need to scale in and out , with the stroke of a key in the main we can completely liquidate or enter in seconds if need be

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

but i calculate from when i bought them , then on historic divs , and the look at forecast divs ( taken with a price of salt )

now sure the market hit some records recently after travelling sideways for years , maybe it will drop another 10% a travel sideways for another three years

AI is unlikely to save the ASX , BNPL is running out of puff , several solid stocks have disappeared from the market

Index Make Up

As of 5:06:45 PM Sydney Time, 10 Aug 2024
All Sectors
Expand Filter
Index make up table

SORTCODEINASCENDINGORDER	SORTSECTORINASCENDINGORDER	SORTBID $INASCENDINGORDER	SORTOFFER$INASCENDINGORDER	SORTLAST $INASCENDINGORDER	SORTCHANGEINASCENDINGORDER	SORTCHANGE%INASCENDINGORDER	SORTOPEN $INASCENDINGORDER	SORTHIGH $INASCENDINGORDER	SORTLOW $INASCENDINGORDER	SORTVOLUMEINASCENDINGORDER
ALL	Consumer Discretionary	51.450	52.200	51.890	0.130	0.25	52.750	52.750	51.370	770,833	More options
ANZ	Financials	27.900	27.980	27.960	0.310	1.12	27.970	28.200	27.890	3,940,793	More options
BHP	Materials	40.800	40.870	40.860	0.650	1.62	40.650	41.020	40.320	10,057,690	More options
CBA	Financials	129.360	129.550	129.550	0.440	0.34	130.000	130.230	128.880	2,142,531	More options
COL	Consumer Staples	18.140	18.240	18.170	-0.030	-0.16	18.140	18.250	18.100	1,376,831	More options
CSL	Health Care	306.600	308.590	308.530	3.060	1	308.990	308.990	305.970	798,111	More options
FMG	Materials	18.430	18.500	18.490	0.390	2.15	18.320	18.620	17.940	10,112,016	More options
GMG	Real Estate	33.350	33.400	33.370	1.040	3.22	32.800	33.500	32.390	3,816,412	More options
MQG	Financials	201.620	202.170	201.700	1.990	1	203.010	204.305	201.400	611,732	More options
NAB	Financials	35.600	35.700	35.630	0.320	0.91	35.730	35.790	35.430	2,433,976	More options
QBE	Financials	16.010	16.050	16.050	-0.280	-1.71	15.700	16.110	15.490	13,400,470	More options
RIO	Materials	116.470	116.830	116.470	2.310	2.02	115.310	118.480	114.830	1,527,829	More options
S32	Materials	2.920	2.940	2.940	0.110	3.89	2.850	2.940	2.840	30,658,748	More options
STO	Energy	7.680	7.740	7.690	0.050	0.65	7.750	7.800	7.690	8,287,863	More options
TCL	Industrials	12.850	12.990	12.970	0.190	1.49	12.910	12.970	12.770	4,018,932	More options
TLS	Communication Services	3.840	3.850	3.840	0.010	0.26	3.850	3.880	3.820	26,610,502	More options
WBC	Financials	28.000	28.090	28.050	0.200	0.72	28.140	28.170	27.900	4,471,567	More options
WDS	Energy	25.480	25.540	25.490	0.560	2.25	25.230	25.630	25.150	4,652,688	More options
WES	Consumer Discretionary	71.000	71.470	71.000	-0.440	-0.62	71.290	72.030	70.670	960,125	More options
WOW	Consumer Staples	33.900	34.020	33.930	0.120	0.35	34.000	34.170	33.720	2,463,110

that is the current top 20

of those i hold

WOW ( at no cash risk ) i inherited a bunch of these and sold down 95% of them , you won't get me even considering adding over $15 , they stumble , they suck dry their 'business partners , they seem to have lost the plot even since they bought Dick Smith Electronics

WES ( at full cash risk ) yes i like WES they make bold moves and seem to make them work in fact i bought extra ( doubled UP AFTER they divest COL ) would have to do something very special before i add more above $32

WDS .. basically a free gift from BHP , keeps getting harder and harder to throw cash at this , it looks like it will choke in an acquisition frenzy

WBC , a legacy of a mistimed exit , it went too Woke/Green for me and i went clumsily straight for the exit ( another one that would need a huge U-turn .. MAYBE $14 )

TLS ( full cash risk ) i bought in here fairly recently as 'a safe haven ' ( too important to let fail ) , yeah , maybe but not above $3.30 ( one on 'the shopping list ')

S32 ( partially a gift from BHP ) hasn't been that inspiring ( IMO ) i would have to grab the calculator at the time ( of the meltdown) but above $1.50 i don't think so ( and wouldn't be high priority)

QBE ( some cash risk )has been is currently my only successful trading vehicle only a disaster away from another big drop would consider adding under $9 ,

MQG ( no cash risk ) my only successful stock prediction ( backed by money ) i bought this heavily during the slide in 2011 ( av, share price $26.76 ) and have taken the cash out ( roughly 3 times over )
would be unlikely to add at over $25

COL , a free gift . thank you WES , still has to prove itself to me ( it deserves real cash thrown at it ) would look more careful below $15

BHP ( at some cash risk ) kept as another 'safe-haven ' (probably too big to fail , but heck aren't they trying to )
looks to be tragically addicted to growth

gee i would have to decide at the time ( whether to add and at what price

now one potentially on the shopping list is ANZ ( i had a short visit before ) but not above $20 ( the BIG 4 have few sensible paths to grow ) ANZ might get 'safe haven ' status ( if i buy back in )

i had a profitable adventure in FMG but then FMG took the 'clean energy path and i took the exit . would i return , MAYBE but am still very cautious about the funding abyss that is called 'clean energy but probably not above $14

so the chances are, i will be shopping outside of the top 20 if there is a slide before Christmas

but never say never , there is plenty of potential triggers out there ... waiting

Chipp · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
but i calculate from when i bought them , then on historic divs , and the look at forecast divs ( taken with a price of salt )

now sure the market hit some records recently after travelling sideways for years , maybe it will drop another 10% a travel sideways for another three years

AI is unlikely to save the ASX , BNPL is running out of puff , several solid stocks have disappeared from the market

Index Make Up
As of 5:06:45 PM Sydney Time, 10 Aug 2024
All Sectors
Expand Filter
Index make up table

SORTCODEINASCENDINGORDER SORTSECTORINASCENDINGORDER SORTBID $INASCENDINGORDER SORTOFFER$INASCENDINGORDER SORTLAST $INASCENDINGORDER SORTCHANGEINASCENDINGORDER SORTCHANGE%INASCENDINGORDER SORTOPEN $INASCENDINGORDER SORTHIGH $INASCENDINGORDER SORTLOW $INASCENDINGORDER SORTVOLUMEINASCENDINGORDER
ALL Consumer Discretionary 51.450 52.200 51.890 0.130 0.25 52.750 52.750 51.370 770,833 More options
ANZ Financials 27.900 27.980 27.960 0.310 1.12 27.970 28.200 27.890 3,940,793 More options
BHP Materials 40.800 40.870 40.860 0.650 1.62 40.650 41.020 40.320 10,057,690 More options
CBA Financials 129.360 129.550 129.550 0.440 0.34 130.000 130.230 128.880 2,142,531 More options
COL Consumer Staples 18.140 18.240 18.170 -0.030 -0.16 18.140 18.250 18.100 1,376,831 More options
CSL Health Care 306.600 308.590 308.530 3.060 1 308.990 308.990 305.970 798,111 More options
FMG Materials 18.430 18.500 18.490 0.390 2.15 18.320 18.620 17.940 10,112,016 More options
GMG Real Estate 33.350 33.400 33.370 1.040 3.22 32.800 33.500 32.390 3,816,412 More options
MQG Financials 201.620 202.170 201.700 1.990 1 203.010 204.305 201.400 611,732 More options
NAB Financials 35.600 35.700 35.630 0.320 0.91 35.730 35.790 35.430 2,433,976 More options
QBE Financials 16.010 16.050 16.050 -0.280 -1.71 15.700 16.110 15.490 13,400,470 More options
RIO Materials 116.470 116.830 116.470 2.310 2.02 115.310 118.480 114.830 1,527,829 More options
S32 Materials 2.920 2.940 2.940 0.110 3.89 2.850 2.940 2.840 30,658,748 More options
STO Energy 7.680 7.740 7.690 0.050 0.65 7.750 7.800 7.690 8,287,863 More options
TCL Industrials 12.850 12.990 12.970 0.190 1.49 12.910 12.970 12.770 4,018,932 More options
TLS Communication Services 3.840 3.850 3.840 0.010 0.26 3.850 3.880 3.820 26,610,502 More options
WBC Financials 28.000 28.090 28.050 0.200 0.72 28.140 28.170 27.900 4,471,567 More options
WDS Energy 25.480 25.540 25.490 0.560 2.25 25.230 25.630 25.150 4,652,688 More options
WES Consumer Discretionary 71.000 71.470 71.000 -0.440 -0.62 71.290 72.030 70.670 960,125 More options
WOW Consumer Staples 33.900 34.020 33.930 0.120
0.35 34.000 34.170 33.720 2,463,110

that is the current top 20

of those i hold

WOW ( at no cash risk ) i inherited a bunch of these and sold down 95% of them , you won't get me even considering adding over $15 , they stumble , they suck dry their 'business partners , they seem to have lost the plot even since they bought Dick Smith Electronics

WES ( at full cash risk ) yes i like WES they make bold moves and seem to make them work in fact i bought extra ( doubled UP AFTER they divest COL ) would have to do something very special before i add more above $32

WDS .. basically a free gift from BHP , keeps getting harder and harder to throw cash at this , it looks like it will choke in an acquisition frenzy

WBC , a legacy of a mistimed exit , it went too Woke/Green for me and i went clumsily straight for the exit ( another one that would need a huge U-turn .. MAYBE $14 )

TLS ( full cash risk ) i bought in here fairly recently as 'a safe haven ' ( too important to let fail ) , yeah , maybe but not above $3.30 ( one on 'the shopping list ')

S32 ( partially a gift from BHP ) hasn't been that inspiring ( IMO ) i would have to grab the calculator at the time ( of the meltdown) but above $1.50 i don't think so ( and wouldn't be high priority)

QBE ( some cash risk )has been is currently my only successful trading vehicle only a disaster away from another big drop would consider adding under $9 ,

MQG ( no cash risk ) my only successful stock prediction ( backed by money ) i bought this heavily during the slide in 2011 ( av, share price $26.76 ) and have taken the cash out ( roughly 3 times over )
would be unlikely to add at over $25

COL , a free gift . thank you WES , still has to prove itself to me ( it deserves real cash thrown at it ) would look more careful below $15

BHP ( at some cash risk ) kept as another 'safe-haven ' (probably too big to fail , but heck aren't they trying to )
looks to be tragically addicted to growth

gee i would have to decide at the time ( whether to add and at what price

now one potentially on the shopping list is ANZ ( i had a short visit before ) but not above $20 ( the BIG 4 have few sensible paths to grow ) ANZ might get 'safe haven ' status ( if i buy back in )

i had a profitable adventure in FMG but then FMG took the 'clean energy path and i took the exit . would i return , MAYBE but am still very cautious about the funding abyss that is called 'clean energy but probably not above $14

so the chances are, i will be shopping outside of the top 20 if there is a slide before Christmas

but never say never , there is plenty of potential triggers out there ... waiting

I dont think you are getting what i am alluding to but thats fine , seems almost no-one does .. Que Sera

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

well i do think differently to many and that is sometimes good and sometimes bad

but i suspect many veteran investors (this ones that survived the dot.com bubble and GFC )are sitting much prettier than me

would they sell a known quantity , to buy a pig in a poke ? or even reach for any cash reserves they have stashed to bulk up selected holdings

now sure the relative novices ( that came in after 2020) it might be the opportunity of a lifetime ( assuming we don't slip into a deep depression and they are forced to sell )

Twiggy could laugh in my face again by achieving his 'Green Dream ' within budget ( and time-frame ) and several other companies could prove me badly wrong

but if i am badly wrong i promise to sob quietly in the corner not SCREAM for a Government bail-out

that is what investing is about taking calculated risks and doing the best you can with the outcome that results ( and try to do it better next time )

good luck ( to everyone ) if this goes pear-shaped , many will learn valuable lessons

qldfrog · 10 August 2024

Chipp said:
I have no idea what you hold but some large caps are down amounts from highs that would be called a crash/bear if index was down same . Top50 has more stocks that have been down from Highs 20% ytd than you'd think .. BHP BSL DXS FMG (-40%) JHX MGR MIN (-36%) NST PLS RHC S32 SEK SHL WDS WOW . There are a couple who were close to 20% not on the list . This gleaned from companies currently in XFL , i havent looked to see whats dropped out YTD so there effectively might be a couple i have missed here . The top200 list down 20% + from highs is going to be reflective of the top50% i would imagine . You can time markets , not saying its easy . Having a plan so you know what to do before it happens may make this easier to handle fwiw . Sort of ,makes you wonder how the XJO is as high as it is but rotation into banks huge part of that i'd imagine .

A bit of code that measure % drop from 'x' period highs screened across the constituents of whatever indice is of note makes this an easy task to monitor ..... market telemetry . If you dont measure you dont find , you want returns like top level proactive professional you need to start doing the things that separates them from the crowd . As a small fund you have distinct advantages the big guys dont , they need to scale in and out , with the stroke of a key in the main we can completely liquidate or enter in seconds if need be

Trying to follow you @Chipp ..i understand we can find a list of top companies asx50 or asx20 which have had a severe fall vs index.
My trouble is:
my experience is mostly in trend following systemic trading..and i would not touch a falling share..even for medium term investing..unless shorting
Am i wrong?, maybe trying to find the breakout yes, i would be comfortable with that, finding a reversing trend in a nastily affected blue chip.

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

one issue is the index funds/ETFs/managed funds have the lion's share of the total market cap. under their management ( seemingly a vice-like grip if they are in the top 100 )

yes there is opportunity in the small ( and micro-caps ) but a lot of the decent gems get taken-over or sucked dry by an important customer , it is sometimes a case of picking the survivor , a Goldilocks share if you like not super-attractive , but still worth investing it ( for a solid return )

the temptation is to flow with the masses and buy index funds/ETFs and have little control over the results

Chipp · 10 August 2024

qldfrog said:
Trying to follow you @Chipp ..i understand we can find a list of top companies asx50 or asx20 which have had a severe fall vs index.

I am not looking for stocks that have fallen against the index at all . Just stocks that have fallen X amount , index nothing to do with it really

qldfrog said:
my experience is mostly in trend following systemic trading..and i would not touch a falling share..even for medium term investing..unless shorting

The only place i really trade stocks is in my SMSF , with my current SMSF shorting stocks cannot be done so shorting stocks is out directly although i will use inverse leveraged ETFs on occasion

qldfrog said:
Am i wrong?, maybe trying to find the breakout yes, i would be comfortable with that, finding a reversing trend in a nastily affected blue chip.

A nastily effected bluechip that is economically solid is the best things to buy if alpha is your thing . I certainly dont just buy them because they are down x % , way more to it than that , but they need to be down x% to get on my list of potential buys in this scenario . I am not a buy and hold guy in the main so very little that i buy will he held for long at all . A BHP situation like 2016 is that rare scenario i will hold for 2 years . I really can not fill in all the gaps in what i do without literally writing chapters and i am not doing that . This year in my SMSF ive had a bad year by my standards but i am still beating the market . Ultimately i consider buy and hold a lazy way of doing markets , not having a go at anyone . I am just trying to maybe plant a seed . For up to half the year ( not in one go ) my SMSF is mostly cash . I am into mean reversion so i look for the opportunity to ride that reversion upwards into the mean in my smsf , much of the time this is fast money where anywhere from 5-25% moves can be picked up in a month . Cash has zero risk and why markets are either going nowhere or down i want to be in cash , I have zero interest in dividends . I dont know how to label what i do , a short term swing trading proactive SMSFer ? I can beat the markets in normal years with relative ease and i absolutely smash index returns when the **** hits the fan , i will never have a >20% DD EVER . All i have time to say atm and probably not the place to have an ongoing dialogue given its XAO TechA .

sptrawler · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
well i do think differently to many and that is sometimes good and sometimes bad

but i suspect many veteran investors (this ones that survived the dot.com bubble and GFC )are sitting much prettier than me

would they sell a known quantity , to buy a pig in a poke ? or even reach for any cash reserves they have stashed to bulk up selected holdings

now sure the relative novices ( that came in after 2020) it might be the opportunity of a lifetime ( assuming we don't slip into a deep depression and they are forced to sell )

Twiggy could laugh in my face again by achieving his 'Green Dream ' within budget ( and time-frame ) and several other companies could prove me badly wrong

but if i am badly wrong i promise to sob quietly in the corner not SCREAM for a Government bail-out

that is what investing is about taking calculated risks and doing the best you can with the outcome that results ( and try to do it better next time )

good luck ( to everyone ) if this goes pear-shaped , many will learn valuable lessons

October isn't far away.
Trying to pick winners, in what I think is a contracting economy, is courageous IMO.

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

so we are basically hunting in the same field , you are looking for rabbits and i am looking for mushrooms and berries .

the good part is we should be rarely competing for the next meal

happy hunting

Chipp · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
well i do think differently to many and that is sometimes good and sometimes bad

Well as someone who thinks way different to most i say kudos to you for if you do what the average person does you get average results . Remember the words of George Carlin “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

sptrawler said:
October isn't far away.
Trying to pick winners, in what I think is a contracting economy, is courageous IMO.

i need to balance aggression with caution , i am nearly 70 and the ability to adjust my portfolio is diminishing year by year

October may be nice or nasty my favorite time is the two weeks after Christmas , small companies tend to have low turnover while the fundies ( and traders ) are on holiday ( and i normally buy smallish parcels )

one idea i agree with Buffet is my favorite holding period is 'forever '

Chipp · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
one idea i agree with Buffet is my favorite holding period is 'forever '

Well old Wazza been unloading mega to cash lately so you might want to revise that quote . I got a feeling he learnt from GFC where BRK lost 55% , not happening again . . Dont know the exact figure but BRK got to be way more than 50% cash at this very moment . Edit ok seems like he is about 30% cash atm , my mistake

https://www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/08/09/a-buffetting-wind/#:~:text=The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway,holds $277 billion in cash.

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

Chipp said:
Well as someone who thinks way different to most i say kudos to you for if you do what the average person does you get average results . Remember the words of George Carlin “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

sometimes , but when i win big i seriously consider locking out a capital loss at a sensible time , that has saved me from some tragic reversals later in that same share .. and yes it reduces gains and if i was still earning a GOOD income outside the market that would probably unwise

but i gave myself 10 years to create a retirement income stream ( in case pensions ceased to be ) and despite some twists and turns maybe i will be close ( if pensions disappear and all you have is your Super fund and odd jobs )

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

Chipp said:
Well old Wazza been unloading mega to cash lately so you might want to revise that quote . I got a feeling he learnt from GFC where BRK lost 55% , not happening again . . Dont know the exact figure but BRK got to be way more than 50% cash at this very moment . Edit ok seems like he is about 30% cash atm , my mistake

https://www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/08/09/a-buffetting-wind/#:~:text=The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway,holds $277 billion in cash.View attachment 182343

old Wazza is a cagey old coot that throws life-lines to selected companies

he is liable to give you tens of billions for a private placement that includes discounted ( new ) shares , preference shares ( often convertible ) , options and warrants

maybe the remaining Apple shares are his profits running

Berkshire isn't just an investment house it is an insurer and underwriter , they understand complex deals and often put a director on the board

so where will Berkshire park the cash , short-term money-market currently , but that is just a stepping stone

besides depending which take-overs complete this month i should have a useful war-chest ( whether i desired it or not )

and there are still some M&A moves still to become clear for me , not to mention a few stocks going in unattractive directions .. ( like WDS so an exit is being considered , when i would normally stay )

TimeISmoney · 10 August 2024

divs4ever said:
i need to balance aggression with caution , i am nearly 70 and the ability to adjust my portfolio is diminishing year by year

October may be nice or nasty my favorite time is the two weeks after Christmas , small companies tend to have low turnover while the fundies ( and traders ) are on holiday ( and i normally buy smallish parcels )

one idea i agree with Buffet is my favorite holding period is 'forever '

A company that has increasing franked dividends year after year is pure gold as far as I'm concerned.

What money do you really make swing trading unless you're risking in the millions of dollars?

You're hit with CGT, trading fees and extra accounting fees from 100s of trades across the year and if you're not fast enough you can't even get back into the market at a good price.

qldfrog · 10 August 2024

Chipp said:
I am not looking for stocks that have fallen against the index at all . Just stocks that have fallen X amount , index nothing to do with it really

The only place i really trade stocks is in my SMSF , with my current SMSF shorting stocks cannot be done so shorting stocks is out directly although i will use inverse leveraged ETFs on occasion

A nastily effected bluechip that is economically solid is the best things to buy if alpha is your thing . I certainly dont just buy them because they are down x % , way more to it than that , but they need to be down x% to get on my list of potential buys in this scenario . I am not a buy and hold guy in the main so very little that i buy will he held for long at all . A BHP situation like 2016 is that rare scenario i will hold for 2 years . I really can not fill in all the gaps in what i do without literally writing chapters and i am not doing that . This year in my SMSF ive had a bad year by my standards but i am still beating the market . Ultimately i consider buy and hold a lazy way of doing markets , not having a go at anyone . I am just trying to maybe plant a seed . For up to half the year ( not in one go ) my SMSF is mostly cash . I am into mean reversion so i look for the opportunity to ride that reversion upwards into the mean in my smsf , much of the time this is fast money where anywhere from 5-25% moves can be picked up in a month . Cash has zero risk and why markets are either going nowhere or down i want to be in cash , I have zero interest in dividends . I dont know how to label what i do , a short term swing trading proactive SMSFer ? I can beat the markets in normal years with relative ease and i absolutely smash index returns when the **** hits the fan , i will never have a >20% DD EVER . All i have time to say atm and probably not the place to have an ongoing dialogue given its XAO TechA .

Thanks

TimeISmoney · 10 August 2024

Chipp said:
Tax in your Super is pretty minimal when trading but sure it aint 7% , The auditing on my SMSF is fixed price , 1 trade or 100 same price . Trading fees p!ss in the wind

Let me know how you go in a 40% market correction , remind me how you felt in march 2020 and then imagine how someone felt being 100% cash BEFORE that correction .. Trading fees PFFFFT

Most of my money is in cash and real estate, I wouldn't risk it on the stock market, but If I'd kept the stocks that I held in 2009 I wouldn't need to work another day of my life.

divs4ever · 10 August 2024

Chipp said:
Tax in your Super is pretty minimal when trading but sure it aint 7% , The auditing on my SMSF is fixed price , 1 trade or 100 same price . Trading fees p!ss in the wind

Let me know how you go in a 40% market correction , remind me how you felt in march 2020 and then imagine how someone felt being 100% cash BEFORE that correction .. Trading fees PFFFFT

During GFC i knew people had planed to retire in 08 , well guess what they couldnt afford to . it took > 4 years for their super account to recover to 07 levels . luckily they were healthy and able to continue working , right then i decided that was never happening to me .

am just not set up to trade in reliable manner , sure i 'channel trade ' QBE but that is crude and simple , say buy at $9 and reduce at $14

you put the order in when you have the cash ( and somewhere near $10 ) and ... wait , it might be that week or in two years time , the same with the reduce order , the ISP can be buggy , the platform can have issues , , the software can update the damn computer ,i can be at some medical appointment and the market does what it does because seconds/hours don't matter because the order has been in days/months before it fills

i don't enter the Olympics when i can barely shuffle , i do what i can that has some chance of success

in 2020 i worried about a downturn for a completely different reason and was about 6% ( second largest position ) in 'reverse index ETFs' plus some cash

so i had 'liquidity available ' my issue in 2020 was i had too many targets to track which might have been a good thing as targets slid while i was deciding what price to buy at

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