XAO Technical Analysis

[Logique]

The inference from Mark DeCambre's Bull/Bear Indicator chart is clear enough (it is US market specific)

What does the falling price of oil mean for the stock market and the economy?
By: Mark DeCambre, Published: Nov 10, 2018
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...bearish-signs-as-oil-prices-plunge-2018-11-10
... According to Goldman, its indicator at 73% marks the highest bear-market reading since the late 1960s and early 1970s, which (with a few exceptions) is consistent with returns of zero over the following 12 months. Any reading above 60% signals that subsequent returns will be lower (see chart below): ...

 

[Logique]

A higher low would be nice, but we'll need it soon!

 

[Logique]

Anyone looking for a near term daily low pivot, keep your eye on the overnight action. Valiant attempts being made here and in the US. Be safe everyone.

 

[Logique]

Interesting juncture, the risk-reward is looking more attractive isn't it

 

[Wyatt]

Looks like this is the place to post a chart with lots of colourful lines of XAO

In hindsight, the Guppy mma's paint a clear picture on this occasion

 

[Logique]

Thanks Wyatt, I don't mind admitting I could use an executive summary of what's going on in that very complex chart!

 

[Ann]

Thanks Wyatt, I don't mind admitting I could use an executive summary of what's going on in that very complex chart!

Hi Logique, it is just an array of Multiple Moving Averages of price. It shows you the places of convergence of all the MAs. Some may use it to enter or exit a trade. I don't like MAs all over my charts it hides the true lines. First thing I do when I get onto my charts is turn the MAs off.

OK, I have not been watching the XAO all that closely, so decided to have a quick glance. Looking off into the future to around April 29, 2019 I see the XAO at a bit of a crossroads. It has a rising support line coming from March 6 2009 and a straight support line coming from Jan 2 2007 and an overhead coming from Feb 26 2007. The March 6 2009 rising support is about to cross the long term support line from Jan 2 2007 around April 29 2019. Let's see what happens, which path will it take? Interesting to watch.

Well just reading all that date stuff I wrote almost did my head in (still badly concussed). I will put up a chart just to show you all that previous palaver translated onto a picture.

 

[Boggo]

My two cents worth.

The daily has hit the minimum W.5 area a few days ahead of the chart time expectation.
We will have a bit of a Christmas run up but there is resistance around the 5900 area, a continuation above that would be positive with around 6000 being the next hurdle.

I am tending to think that we may see sub 5600 before we turn (I'm hoping not as I'm long on 7 stocks over two accounts).
The 50% retracement of the last up leg on the weekly is around 5600 too.

 

[Logique]

The market has a pulse. Volatility is trending down (XVI under), and the gold price hasn't exactly surprised on the upside. The brief ceasefire in the China-US trade war was liked by markets.
So who knows, will 5600 be the magic number? I don't think I'm going to win the ASF XAO tipping contest..not this year anyway

 

[Logique]

Just like a Bear, setting traps for us. Old support from 2017 looks to have failed, and a daily downtrend since Sept 2018. Not much good news for the Bulls. 5600 likely next stop.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.

They want landlords to fail, anyone with $1000 to fail (they rich)

Think the RBA getting very concerned. Would be having lot meetings. Another RBA member out talking today.

 

[Logique]

Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.
They want landlords to fail, anyone with $1000 to fail (they rich)
Think the RBA getting very concerned. Would be having lot meetings. Another RBA member out talking today.

The falling property market in Sydney & Melbourne will add to their concerns. Surely at minimum, it will push any interest rate increases out much further. Any new government rules on negative gearing and CGT tightening will further soften the property market.

 

[Cam019]

Just like a Bear, setting traps for us. Old support from 2017 looks to have failed, and a daily downtrend since Sept 2018. Not much good news for the Bulls. 5600 likely next stop.
View attachment 90698

Logique, to me support is still in play with a range of approximately 5640 - 5730. No doubt we are in a short and intermediate term downtrend but the XAO would have to close below 5640 for me to reevaluate what I am currently seeing.

XAO daily:



XAO weekly:

 

[Smurf1976]

Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.

There's a huge difference between foreseeing that something is likely to occur versus wanting that same thing to occur.

For example I predict that in due course I'll be dead but that doesn't mean I actually want it to occur. I'd be foolish to ignore the reality that it will happen though.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.

Think the RBA getting very concerned. Would be having lot meetings. Another RBA member out talking today.

The members of the RBA don't give a rats.

As long as they get paid for meeting every now and then, they will take their per diem and look on as the weather turns this way and that.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

Noting that today's decline is broadly based.

46 of the ASX50 stocks are down thus far today and all industry sectors are down.

 

[Darc Knight]

November 7 RBA revises economic growth up to 3.5%. Figures out 5th December say economic growth at 2.8%.
Two more years of a booming economy they said.

 

[satanoperca]

The members of the RBA don't give a rats.

What do you want them to do? They have very few levers to make change.
1. Decrease interest rates ? Inflate the asset/debt bubble and kick the can a bit further, deflate the dollar and increase inflation, resulting in 2.
2. Increase interest rates ? Housing market collapse, along with the economy. Increase the dollar and makes us even more non competitive internationally, but this is in the short term.

The RBA cannot make change without the govnuts di--kheads pulling their heads out of their arses.

What are your solutions/actions to solve the current state of affairs?

 

[Darc Knight]

What do you want them to do? They have very few levers to make change.
1. Decrease interest rates ? Inflate the asset/debt bubble and kick the can a bit further, deflate the dollar and increase inflation, resulting in 2.
2. Increase interest rates ? Housing market collapse, along with the economy. Increase the dollar and makes us even more non competitive internationally, but this is in the short term.

The RBA cannot make change without the govnuts di--kheads pulling their heads out of their arses.

What are your solutions/actions to solve the current state of affairs?

Is the problem that each current Government doesn't want a Recession on their watch so they won't allow interest rates to go back to normal. Now they can't use interest rates as a lever coz they're so low already.
Should we just put interest rates back to normal levels and take the pain - but each current Governments won't do it.

 

[gartley]

Global indices relentlessly selling off. Is the point of recognition almost upon us? If the wild gyrations and wide range day bars are anything to go by they speak volumes.))) I have been looking at some probable downside targets for the XAO. Initial target @ 5442( should be temporary) would the height of the downside triangle that has just broken support @ 5676. The other obvious relationship assuming we are in an abc formation to the downside ( which we are probably NOT) is around 5178 unless c is 1.618 expansion of a. But then if we in an impulsive move down which is what it's starting to look, like then 1.618 of W1 lines up nicely with the 4784-4486 zone and major support zone.

The next 2-3 days will reveal all. Now that support @ 5676 has broken, IF the next coutertrend rally fails to move back above the former support line @ 5676 and laves a bearish space between support and reisistance then we maybe in the early stages of an acceleration t the downside and a mirror image foldback of the advance from early 2016 till August 2018

Time analysis suggests a continuation of the downtrend into around Feb/March 2019 when the next long to medium term cycle 18 is due taking that chart at face value based relative to when that cycle point last happened in Feb/March 2015 or 4 years ago ( 4 year cycle- numbers on chart are only points in time not price)

2019 looks like it will be a doozy in global markets!!