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XAO Technical Analysis

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I think current action is not that bullish
can we call current move a free fall in the US? not yet?
 
The long term quarterly chart is the US index, SPX (S&P 500).

But just to make the point, do you think we're nearer the beginning or the end, of this leg in the market. Bear in mind, the futs say, the XAO will break to the down side of the latest trading range on Monday.

Craig James of CommSec, will not be deterred, it's all sunshine, golden sprinkles and candy swirls.

 
2008 GFC gives a guide to the nature of bear markets in terms of time and drawdown. Even though it was overall bigger than most bear markets, it still had similar components.

 
Three touches to a weekly downtrend line, which is still in place. It now provides a good reference point for the (longed for) future change in trend.

 
Not the most technically correct but a small head & shoulder pattern could be in play for a move back to 5,400ish

 
sammy84 said:
Not the most technically correct but a small head & shoulder pattern could be in play for a move back to 5,400ish

View attachment 65996
Click to expand...

It looks like one long downtrend to me with lower lows and lower highs. I always stand back a metre from any chart before looking at it any way closely. Just my opinion.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
It looks like one long downtrend to me with lower lows and lower highs. I always stand back a metre from any chart before looking at it any way closely. Just my opinion.

gg
Click to expand...

The one year chart, for the All-Ords, appears to support GG. Lower lows and lower highs. The market would have to break out above the upper channel bar and move above 5350 before I called a recovery. More likely, in the shorter term, to go to a volatile sideways pattern in my humble opinion.

 
Gringotts Bank said:
Top of wedge. Solid buying last week might suggest we hang around the top line for a while.
Click to expand...

I think there's a strong resemblance to what happened last time...



History may rhyme or it may repeat... or it may do it's own thing.

But the strong reversal today in the stocks which rallied the hardest (BHP, FMG, WOR etc) may be a sign of things to come, especially if the financials are to join in.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Any XAO Technical Analysis reasoning or just an offhand comment?
Click to expand...

It broke a trendline, then went a full 3 Fib extensions before pulling back slightly. Just a matter of too far, too quick. So there would be a high chance of reversion up to 5170.

 
rnr said:
Bullish Hidden divergence was evident for the next 2 bars and finally played out today.
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Didn't play out but that is t.a. MACD can be interpreted a number of ways and my standard didn't show a divergence but the MACD does cross down below signal line suggesting further down. The lag is terrible though.


 
Wysiwyg said:
Didn't play out but that is t.a. MACD can be interpreted a number of ways and my standard didn't show a divergence but the MACD does cross down below signal line suggesting further down. The lag is terrible though.
Click to expand...

Hi Wysiwyg

I use the Stochastic, rather than the MACD, to detect divergence.

My comment that the Bullish Hidden Divergence, as signaled, had played out was based on a higher High on the March 31st bar as well as a higher Close than the previous bar (day). Had this price action not occurred then the Hidden Bullish Divergence may still be evident.
Although this divergence played out I have not made any comment on the profitability of a trade.
 
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