XAO Technical Analysis

Wysiwyg · 22 October 2011

nulla nulla said:
I find it amazing that the djia is testing highs arround 12,000 and we are languishing arround 4000. Either we are way under valued with our strong economy and low sovereign debt; or the U.S.A is way overvalued with their stuffed up economy and sovereign debt escalating out of control. Another bubble ready to burst and bring every thing down with it?

Looking for some day range narrowing (stability) on the S&P 500 index.

Boggo · 22 October 2011

I don't mean to sound too negative but this (the S&P 500) could easily head back down to around 1050 imo.
I am hoping that I am wrong as I feel that I have been sitting this out for longer than expected but I am not yet convinced that the negativity is done and dusted.

Just my

(click to expand)

Gringotts Bank · 26 October 2011

Market deciding whether it can break that line.

Gringotts Bank · 28 October 2011

Already more than half way towards that target posted above (approx 4510).

This is the first truly bullish set up since mid-March by my reckoning.

So I'm buy and hold until we get really strong signs of reversal of sentiment.

nomore4s · 28 October 2011

nomore4s said:
Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.

I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.

So while I think we could drift back down to test that 3700-4000 area again (in fact I'd be a little surprised if we didn't test at least 4000 again), unless we see some sort of major event from overseas markets I think we might have seen the lows for this year. How price reacts on the next leg down will be telling, I will definitely be expecting a more orderly retreat - if not it is a worrying sign imo. With the strength we saw in those 2 down days last week I would be very surprised to see our market push below 3700 this year without some sort of major trigger from overseas.

But in this current environment anything is possible.

nomore4s said:
Analysis I posted in the tanking thread, still stands.

If anything the fact we didn't go below 4100 on the last leg down strengthens it.

I also think we will see a range bound market for the next few months and I'm still favoring prices to test 3200-3400 sometime next year but 3700 could yet provide enough support to stop that. I will have to review my outlook if we see prices above 4700 though.

Updated chart with current S&R zones.

My analysis of the low for the year still stands. We finally saw a retest of the 3900-4000 area which obviously held. One amendment I have is prices above 5100 not 4700 will make me re-assess my long term view.

I think we could bounce around between 4400-4700 for a while now but a push back towards 5000 might not be totally out of the question. Prices back under 4100 with no shows of support is a warning sign and under 3800 and all bets are off.

skc · 28 October 2011

nomore4s said:
I think we could bounce around between 4400-4700 for a while now but a push back towards 5000 might not be totally out of the question. Prices back under 4100 with no shows of support is a warning sign and under 3800 and all bets are off.

That's my view ~3 hrs ago. Now we are looking at a pretty ugly candle to end the day possibly in the negative.

We did run pretty hard yesterday (and for much of Oct) in the few hours trading available and the market may be taking some of the rate cut certainty back out...

Gringotts Bank · 28 October 2011

Something I can't work out, and I didn't really notice before, and that's the low volumes across the board since about Oct17. It bothers me.

Comments?

tech/a · 28 October 2011

No demand.
Id say the only buying has been from the private buyers and selling along the way into those buyers from those un winding exposure.
I agree that volumes need to be looked closely at.
Youll see clearly when the instos start buying and it wont be on UP moves.
Today is a good example of selling into those clever bargain buyers!!

notting · 28 October 2011

I think people are still freaked out and most of the buying was done buy machines being turned on buy sudden up moves triggering signals.
I'd say the selling is typical people wanting to lock in profits for the week not realizing that the next months are going to be far more positive than the last months because they are still in the old mental mode of not wanting to hold over the weekend.
Bargains never seem like bargains when they are all 10% to 20% higher than the past weeks!!
Although to be frank, I did get out of MQG and LYC when they were right up again this morning.

Boggo · 28 October 2011

Slightly off topic but relevant to volume perhaps.
Interesting watching the live trades going through on MCR, man or machine ?

notting · 28 October 2011

MCR was looking pretty weak up to yesterday when it lept 10%
I'd say man.

Logique · 31 October 2011

A good recent run on promising EU announcements, and above 4300 is technically a breakthrough. But indicators are well bought, and daily MA still 'death crossed'. EU stuctural problems still there - and how long until more bad news out of Europe. Domestically, if the Reserve Bank does go into an easing cycle, that would help.

Whiskers · 31 October 2011

Logique said:
A good recent run on promising EU announcements, and above 4300 is technically a breakthrough. But indicators are well bought, and daily MA still 'death crossed'. EU stuctural problems still there - and how long until more bad news out of Europe. Domestically, if the Reserve Bank does go into an easing cycle, that would help.

Yeah, I'm suspecting we're a bit well bought atm.

I was critical of the RBA when it raised rates, I felt too soon. I suspect they may well be loathe to cut back down again too soon, since the data is not conclusive one way or t'other.

If they do not cut, I expect it to be a real damper on confidence and business expansion to slow substantially more than they expect in the next few months... sending the XAO down and sideways for awhile.

VSntchr · 31 October 2011

I have zero technical knowledge but the last minute of trading was quite interesting today!
A bout a 20 point fall...

RazzaDazzla · 31 October 2011

VSntchr said:
I have zero technical knowledge but the last minute of trading was quite interesting today!
A bout a 20 point fall...

There's no 20 point fall in the last minute on my charts.

XJO was ~4355 about 12:30pm and then did drop as low as ~4315 at about 2:30ish.

Wysiwyg · 31 October 2011

Whiskers said:
Yeah, I'm suspecting we're a bit well bought atm.

Above average probability of a short term (1 to 10 days) pull back and then higher again.

Logique · 9 November 2011

Getting interesting technically. A looming 'Golden Cross' for the Dow, and the XAO is advancing toward the 200 EMA. By the futures, the XAO should finish > 4400 today. Perhaps if a few more Europe national presidents could resign and keep the momentum going.

Hopefully that giant asteroid misses the earth today, as the astronomers have assured us. Bit it's passing pretty close in cosmology terms.

Boggo · 10 November 2011

Amazing how areas of support/resistance seem to have an influence and coincide with other factors that influence the overall behaviour.

We need to get this gap closed and then get the ~4500 line to become support.

(click to expand)

tech/a · 10 November 2011

DJIA Futs on the rise
Euroland DAX and FTSE clawing back
GOLD doing the same.

pavilion103 · 11 November 2011

Price struggling at the 50% retracement from the 11 April high and 9 August low. Also not far from a resistance level just above that.
I've now drawn in an uptrend line which has acts as support so far.

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