XAO Technical Analysis

tech/a · 8 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Likely this could be wave "B" in an ABC correction.
Giving the final completion of the 3 wave counter move in this Down trend a target of 4613
Trading below 4299 would prove this analysis wrong.
If correct then we would see a completion of the corrective move with a further 5 waves down.

Whiskers · 8 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Likely this could be wave "B" in an ABC correction.
Giving the final completion of the 3 wave counter move in this Down trend a target of 4613
Trading below 4299 would prove this analysis wrong.
If correct then we would see a completion of the corrective move with a further 5 waves down.

Yeah, I'm still fairly bullish based on a FA.

On TA I'm looking for at least 4613, maybe 4850ish from a H&S target.

This next leg up should define whether it's a 3 of a continuing uptrend or B of a correction.

tech/a · 12 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

XJO still on track with analysis.
this is a daily.

Click to enlarge.

dutchie · 13 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
XJO still on track with analysis.
this is a daily.

Click to enlarge.

tech/a thanks for the chart

(shouldn't the fib. 1.00 be placed on the blue circled 2?)

tech/a · 13 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

dutchie said:
tech/a thanks for the chart

(shouldn't the fib. 1.00 be placed on the blue circled 2?)

Sure can be if your looking for the retracement of the wave 3.
I'm looking at the corrective % for the whole move High to Low.

Whiskers · 16 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Is everyone still bullish?

I'm still happy with 4850ish from that H&S target, if nothing else to pin a number on.

Also thinking we're about at a minute iii of a minor iii wave, hence a decent kick is coming up.

BNECBD_DayTrader · 16 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Throw up a chart Whiskers...

Edwood · 17 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
I'm still happy with 4850ish from that H&S target, if nothing else to pin a number on.

looks feasible Whiskers, should be plenty of shorts out there to help push it higher for a while, altho we're bound to get bumps along the way

Broadway · 17 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Some might get nervous about their longs.
Or maybe that european bond leading story is somewhat stale.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-i...widening-european-bond-spread-20100616115723/

MRC & Co · 17 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Reckon the next shoe to drop is one of 3 things:

- Portugal downgrade
- Chinese/US trade wars
- G20 finmin meeting on financial regulation

Whichever is first will spark the next down leg.

explod · 17 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Reckon the next shoe to drop is one of 3 things:

- Portugal downgrade
- Chinese/US trade wars
- G20 finmin meeting on financial regulation

Whichever is first will spark the next down leg.

Agree, particularly battles on trade and perceptions of currency manipulations. Another factor are indications by European nations and the UK to reduce spending on defence, some by up to 30%, is going to make US military producers disturbed.

There are a lot of very complex intertwined issues quite apart from what we have understood on the GFC coming to a head of late. We need someone to shine a torch.

Bothersome times indeed IMO

Whiskers · 17 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
Throw up a chart Whiskers...

Maybe tomorow mate. I,ve got some software problems atm... but still the same as above chart with some (dubious ) minute and minor EW counts on the more recent candles.

Edwood said:
looks feasible Whiskers, should be plenty of shorts out there to help push it higher for a while, altho we're bound to get bumps along the way

Yep, looks like it was a little bump today.

MRC & Co said:
Reckon the next shoe to drop is one of 3 things:

- Portugal downgrade
- Chinese/US trade wars
- G20 finmin meeting on financial regulation

Whichever is first will spark the next down leg.

The Chinese/US trade war certainly has the potential to hick-up the market, but I think I'll go with financial regulation as the next big thing to move the market since it's been my favourite hobby horse since the GFC and seems to have faded into the background with Obama being pre occupied with the BP spill... but I'm not sure it will move the market down. Depending what unfolds it might just be the trigger to give retail investors confidence to dip in a bit more.

MRC & Co · 18 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
The Chinese/US trade war certainly has the potential to hick-up the market, but I think I'll go with financial regulation as the next big thing to move the market since it's been my favourite hobby horse since the GFC and seems to have faded into the background with Obama being pre occupied with the BP spill... but I'm not sure it will move the market down. Depending what unfolds it might just be the trigger to give retail investors confidence to dip in a bit more.

Banks are listed companies, cutting their bottom line ----------> falling share price.

Whiskers · 19 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Banks are listed companies, cutting their bottom line ----------> falling share price.

Yep, that's true... but the bottom line for the whole financial sector (not just banks) has been very volatile under current regulation, completely wipeing out many financial institutions and putting a suspicious/cautious cloud over the whole market.

Assuming the regulation and oversight is done well, as the key players driving tighter regulation are trying to prevent the GFC type crisis/losses and necessary bailout's again... I'm thinking stronger invester confidence should return to financials and the whole market generally.

My main premise for this is that people generally would prefer not to invest in a company if they thought it could be responsible for, or caught up in a GFC type incident again... that they would put a higher premium on a more stable business reigned in by good regulation and oversight than one that had free reign to exploit the system too far and bust at a moments notice.

I think if people had a choice of risking their capital for those type of risky returns again v tighter regulated and less extreme returns and risk of loosing their capital... they mostly would choose the later.

Whiskers · 19 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
Throw up a chart Whiskers...

There you go mate... but as I say my minute count (yellow) in particular is dubious since I don't go to a lot of trouble with it unless I'm in a trade and I don't trade indicies.

But, looking at it a bit closer now... I like it.

tech/a · 22 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Likely this could be wave "B" in an ABC correction.
Giving the final completion of the 3 wave counter move in this Down trend a target of 4613
Trading below 4299 would prove this analysis wrong.
If correct then we would see a completion of the corrective move with a further 5 waves down.

tech/a said:
XJO still on track with analysis.
this is a daily.

Click to enlarge.

Going down!

BNECBD_DayTrader · 22 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Going down!

Going from Left to Right..!

Trembling Hand · 22 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Going down!

Our friends up north have different ideas. Yuan reset by the looks of that

BNECBD_DayTrader · 22 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliot Wave Theorists - this could be the next leg down, anyone keen to speculate on targets... :bricks1:

Mactavish · 22 June 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

target: 3900

XAO Technical Analysis

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