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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Is there a chart in there somewhere.
Looks like a Road map for Sydney to Melbourne.
Click to expand...

Fair call tech.
I didn't explain myself too well , I needed one more down move to complete my weekly chart on the Dow and that has happened today , I was expecting around 9910 but 9974 is good enough for me . Top chart is my pre open weekly Dow (today) , bottom chart is today's close . I never got the gist of EW but I guess this could be the end of wave A down and start of wave B up , so I'm feeling bullish in the interim .
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


Before you get quietly comfortable and think its safe to go back in the water.
there is a long term Cancer growing in world economies.
Some know its there 90% of the world have no idea.
This is one of many cancers but is being used to treat all the other cancers.
Its the government propensity of printing money to plug short term debt issues.

GDP V DEBT

Zimbabwe/Greece/Iceland/Japan/Spain/Portugal all are known.

But take a look at the list below and more importantly take a look at WORLD GDP V DEBT.
Its getting close to the point where WORLD GDP wont be able to service the world DEBT.

Click on this link to see the complete list.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Last nights action in the US was stronger than the Dow & S&P numbers indicated. For pretty much the first time in May we had some nice spec funds chasing spec stocks. The small and mid caps were positive which is a very welcome sign. They lead the March, April rally. Seems to be flowing on to Asian markets.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


TH, how do you know that its specifically the spec funds?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

saiter said:
TH, how do you know that its specifically the spec funds?
Click to expand...

When funds that are aggressive put money into the market they don't buy Walmart or Kraft. They go for the mid-small caps (which aren't that small by Aussie standards, 1/2 bil avg Mrk cap).

Defensive funds move bonds, USD & Big "safer" companies. Risk money moves Commods, AUD, CAD, Asian Equities etc. A lot can be learnt from throwing the charts away and looking at how asset classes are performing compared to others.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Very true T/H but why would you not use charts to help you in reading performance and perhaps picking the more subtle changes.

If you didnt "see" this buying without observing price action on charts how did you see it?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Very true T/H but why would you not use charts to help you in reading performance and perhaps picking the more subtle changes.
Click to expand...
Because people see what they want to see in squiggly lines. They put on MACD & RSI & every other thing and try to look for divergence & head and shoulder patterns and of course always end up looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.

tech/a said:
If you didnt "see" this buying without observing price action on charts how did you see it?
Click to expand...

A simple quote screen. I haven't looked at a Russell 2000 chart for 2 months but I knew it had outperformed from Feb to early May and very much underperformed since the start of May. Same same for AUDJY for example. I also knew that in spite of the DOW/S&P500 chart from last night that there was a bit of money chasing prices around the place. This screen would seem to confirm that view,
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
A simple quote screen. I haven't looked at a Russell 2000 chart for 2 months but I knew it had outperformed from Feb to early May and very much underperformed since the start of May.
Click to expand...

Is it just me...or is the Russell 2000 not actually on that quote screen? :

Gotta love NT, I use the market analyzer myself too
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Different setup for different times of the day. That ones for Asia. After all I only have 5 screens.
Click to expand...

Haha yeah I know, just stirrin

I used to wonder why people needed so many screens, but now I understand, will have to get a couple more before I'm much older!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This post, I don't want it to serve as a swipe at anyone but more for those that balk at their own signals when they arrive ....Just do it !

Trembling Hand said:
Because people see what they want to see in squiggly lines. They put on MACD & RSI & every other thing and try to look for divergence & head and shoulder patterns and of course always end up looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Click to expand...

That chart I posted in #8114 has substance recovery signals in it.
1 Positive divergence on a daily is some thing to consider and
2 There is a surprising amount of rejection of the lows too .... ??? ...

Timing your entry is paramount, that's what I was questioning in my charts.

Looks like I was reading them the right way and not seeing what I wanted to see.

It was time to get long even if it was for a quick trade.

Shorter time frames, indicators can be dodgey. Daily charts are better odds.

I must learn to take my own advice !

U get that
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm picking up comments at the moment by technical analysts that the market should bounce to the 4600 level or slightly above over the coming weeks and then the charts are showing that there will be a significant move lower to levels below 4000. I understand that the Elliott Wave charts are showing this.

I am aware that proponents of Elliott Wave theory only claim that their charts are indicating the probabilities of certain outcomes, but if these charts are widely used, wouldn't this type of prediction be self-fulfilling?
 
Re: XAO Analysis


If we get another day like today, that we will reach that target this week.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

brianwh said:
I am aware that proponents of Elliott Wave theory only claim that their charts are indicating the probabilities of certain outcomes, but if these charts are widely used, wouldn't this type of prediction be self-fulfilling?
Click to expand...

But not everyone uses technical analysis.

Plenty who do use TA don't use EW and think it is bunkem.

More don't use it than do.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kryzz said:
Perhaps another low volume rally before further falls (re-test that old support level)?
Click to expand...

Well, here we are now, seems to have played out nicely, US indicies all down >3% on Fridays close following NFP data...Monday should open with a bang!

nb: dunno why my data has that downspike
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

XAO and the DJIA weekly charts, 29 EMA and 50 EMA. Both show that we need a circuit breaker and fast. Interesting in europe how it had been about purity of economic theory by stimulus spending to avoid recession, but now it's all about sacrifice and tight budgets, exactly the opposite, and worrying to economists.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


In this case the analysis proved to be wrong.There is nothing wrong with analysis being in correct.Its what you do with it that is important.
The rising wedge in a falling market was and is a strong pattern---we saw it back in early May.

Because people see what they want to see in squiggly lines. They put on MACD & RSI & every other thing and try to look for divergence & head and shoulder patterns and of course always end up looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Click to expand...

There are things to see in squiggly lines and in bids hitting market and in Elliott Analysis. They dont have to be made up.
But you are right in that some analysts seem to need to justify analysis that is proven to be in correct.

Analysis can also be proven to be correct.
After all ---- all analysis is doing is providing us with a point where we believe price will not fall below our buy price and when selling where we believe price will not go substantially higher than our exit price.(When long)
 
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