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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

People just cannot wait for the long weekend, sell, sell...
I guess next week will be a tough one when all professionals are back to work. A round of profit taking is on the corner...
But for mining companies, the stake is high because the quarterly report is due...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

the earlier count showed the last month, here is the last 12 months. Wave 3 = 1.618 x 1, so good possibility of some resistance around these levels (note this is based on ASX200 not XAO)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Your wave-v is also the higher degree wave-3, so the current move higher must be a wave-5
Click to expand...

sounds fair - so v = 3, we've had 4 and now in 5, which looks to be extending. the chart is based on 24 hr data tho so there'll be some differences from XAO I'd suspect.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

10 day view - looks to be running out of steam, lots of divergence showing now

asxdivergence010207rm7.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Making yet another high.

Concerned a little that it's running away from the 200 d ma - long term ave....I see a pullback to the 5300-400 range as a healthy break in the short term, for long term gains...

I tried to put an EW count on this but I can't fit one in with fidelity.

Can anyone else?
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hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK. if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish

asxewiweekly010207ig4.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK. if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish

asxewiweekly010207ig4.gif
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Edwood,

Might be better and more valid performing a count on actual EOD data rather than CFD bid data from reuters. It can make a difference.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK. if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish

asxewiweekly010207ig4.gif
Click to expand...

From the chart u posted on the weekly Aussie200.

Looking at the bottom indicator it has hit the top line so some kind of pull back could be expected going on past ;) what do u think?

I am also turning bearish as it pulled so far of it trend lines I feel a 200+ pull back is on the cards.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

today a hell of alot of puts where bought on the XJO

Calls Traded: 2238 Puts Traded: 8217 now does this mean much?

that's the frist time i have seen it lean that much to one side in a long time when we are at a top.

some over zealous bears maybe or something more?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Found this T/A view from a major broking house today. Just wondering if others share their view that we're close to the top of wave 3 for this bull run with a corrective wave 4 imminent before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave...??

Given the continued uptrend over recent weeks it is likely that wave 3 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low is still unfolding. Structurally the third wave appears to be close to complete and is approaching important wave relationship resistance at 5905 where wave 3 equals 2.618 the length of wave 1. This is a likely place for a fourth wave correction to occur from. Weakness through support at 5760 needs to occur to provide an initial indication that the market has begun a fourth wave retreat, with downside risk then to the 5285 to 5489 region (fourth wave of lesser degree range) before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave.

What are your thoughts?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
From the chart u posted on the weekly Aussie200.

Looking at the bottom indicator it has hit the top line so some kind of pull back could be expected going on past ;) what do u think?

I am also turning bearish as it pulled so far of it trend lines I feel a 200+ pull back is on the cards.
Click to expand...

hi Trade It, been away for a week - good to see ASX still up here! also think we are heading for a correction, agree the RSI is moving into overbought territory but in the past its run up for some time while more o/bought
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dodgers said:
Found this T/A view from a major broking house today. Just wondering if others share their view that we're close to the top of wave 3 for this bull run with a corrective wave 4 imminent before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave...??

What are your thoughts?
Click to expand...

have seen a very similar count on XAO in the last few days Dodgers from a UK-based house, definitely sounds feasible imo
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Edwood

Being a non-chartist, I can't figure out where the wave 1 peak might have been. Any ideas?

cheers
dodgers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

hi Dodgers, using XAO on bigcharts (which may not be completely correct) it looks to be around 5,100, give or take a few
 
Re: XAO Analysis

don't know if you've noticed Dodgers but XAO has just now bounced back from 5,905 - can it take it out now I guess is the question
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Edwood, I'm guessing it can crack 6000 before correcting but thats exactly what it is....a guess
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
today a hell of alot of puts where bought on the XJO

Calls Traded: 2238 Puts Traded: 8217 now does this mean much?

that's the frist time i have seen it lean that much to one side in a long time when we are at a top.

some over zealous bears maybe or something more?
Click to expand...

could be institutions hedging their long positions Trade-It as we approach a 'key' level, or they're betting on a fall. either way their covered. imo high amounts of open interest can act as a support and resistance - so lots of short interest can help to drive the market higher as they're forced to cover as the market moves higher
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Is this looking toppy and ready for a bit of a breather? :eek:

Top of a wave 5 perhaps?

If we get a 10% correction this would bring it back to the 5400 level, where there is some support also.

Looking for some good shorts here, or perhaps the spi.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Is the China syndrome going to can the US like it has UK? And then us? Could this be the start of the inevitable correction that we have to have? 1st stop could be 5700, then around 5450 ish. That's about a 50% retractment from the latest 5 wave push. Or, am I being too bearish?

Shorting the spi looks like it could be a cunning plan, shortly.
 

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