XAO Technical Analysis

[Space Cadet]

Re: XAO Analysis

Below is an updated Excel spreadsheet and summary charts of the major ASX indices' PER's.

The PER's are calculated using companies forecast 2007 EPS.

Imo we're at about fair value now but probably still a little on the pricey side.

 

[Space Cadet]

Re: XAO Analysis

and these were the ASX PER's a few months back before the correction we had to have.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Similar except the ASX 200 and 300. Interesting.

Got an overall market per, perhaps that tells a story?

Space cadet, your avatar is FREAKIN ME OUT! Aaaahhhhh!

 

[Space Cadet]

Re: XAO Analysis

Kennas

XAO has been added to the spreadsheet and charts for you.

I can upload only a cut-down version of the spreadsheet containing the XAO PER data because of size limits on this site (even using ZIP compression).

Between this and the previous spreadsheet you can see all the data that was used and how the PER's are calculated.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Cheers.

What's the difference between weighted and unweighted. 19.4 looks pricey on the unweighted XAO...

 

[Space Cadet]

Re: XAO Analysis

Cheers.

What's the difference between weighted and unweighted. 19.4 looks pricey on the unweighted XAO...

The Unweighted PER is the Average of the individual company PER's calculated by:

company PER = (share price) / (forecast 2007 EPS)

The Weighted PER then weights each individual company PER according to its market cap as a percentage of the total index market cap before averaging the PER's

Also, the forecast EPS and market cap data are sourced from commsec who have forecast 2007 EPS for only 437 companies when the data was downloaded last week and their are 491 members in the XAO index.

Index company members, including the XAO, are downloaded from the S&P website.

The spreadsheet ignores companies in the averages calculations where there is no EPS data available.

So if you have an updated more extensive source for EPS data then you could insert it into the 'Data' sheet in the spreadsheet.

 

[Space Cadet]

Re: XAO Analysis

The x-section of unweighted ASX indices PERs shows that the mid to small caps are driving up the ASX300 and XAO indices.

This is also seen in the weighted PERs where the relatively smaller weighting of the mid to small caps (compared to the large cap ASX100 stocks) mostly negates their affect on the average PERs.

IMO the ASX50/100/200 PERs are at about fair value and so could have a little further to go if sentiment stays positive, but if their PER's are at 18+ if the previous all time highs are retested then I doubt the rally would continue much further in the short term.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO looking toppy IMO. Won't take much for profit takers to sweep in to those stocks that have driven the recent run. I'm not feeling very confident in investing atm. Perhaps the golden run of the last 5 weeks could be coming to an end?

By the chart there could even be a pull back to the 5100 level before pushing on to all time highs once again.

Our economy is still very sound less farmers, and pending US stability therefore China growth story.....

Note the similarities between now and the May correction.

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree that we're ripe for a pull back but i can't see a correction happening. The volume has not dropped off the way it did back in May. Allot of money has come into the market over the last few weeks....maybe some the lower volumes lately (Last three sessions below 21 ma) are investors nervous about the Fed's decision next week?

Sorry but i can only see the volume on Etrade..not Bigcharts.

Anyone else have any opinions?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I can't see volumes either.

Still toppy. If it falls, where's support? Support lines are dropping away, and away. I suppose the previous all time high would give it a bounce, but next best support is still down at 5100 really.

Overbought on slow stochastics and has been for a while. Way above 200 d ma.

A correction in the XJO is probably due which will bring ours on. Maybe not a 'correction' but surely a pullback...

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

hey all - am new to ASF - anyone here able to recommend a good day trading thread for XAO & the indices in general?

cheers

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

hey all - am new to ASF - anyone here able to recommend a good day trading thread for XAO & the indices in general?

cheers

Try 'Trading the SPI'. I think that was the thread title. cheers.

 

[spitrader1]

Re: XAO Analysis

hey all - am new to ASF - anyone here able to recommend a good day trading thread for XAO & the indices in general?

cheers

try this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=95360#post95360

be carefull though-lesser men have perished here.

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

ta spit & kennas

 

[rosie]

XAO

Price on XAO is interesting.

Cheers.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO

Price on XAO is interesting.

Cheers.

Hi Rosie, what is it you see here??

Perhaps the tenets of a multi month correction are in the making??

Interested to hear anybody elses opinion on this chart??

 

[rosie]

Re: XAO

Hi Rosie, what is it you see here??

Perhaps the tenets of a multi month correction are in the making??

Interested to hear anybody elses opinion on this chart??

Hi wavepicker, I see your name sake (waves) I see price vibrating off important turning points, we'll soon know if price action is valid or not.

Cheers.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Support as shown. It's hard to see it below the second strong line, around rosies 61% retraction. Although the bears will disagree of course. The next correction might send it there perhaps. We're due.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Could this be the start of a pullback or does the Santa Rally go through to end of Jan?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think there is a pretty clear up trend line in there that is yet to be reached or broken, but it's getting close.