XAO Technical Analysis

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thursday 17-December 2009 AEDST the DOW closed down 10.88 (-0.10%) at10,441.12 and the NASDAQ closed up 5.86 (+0.27%) at 2,206.91.

The Dow continues to hold above 10,400 but lacks the momentum and confidence to break through 10,500. We might have to wait until after the holiday season finishes for any clear direction to emerge.

The XAO appears to have reached the same lack of impetus struggling between 4600 and 4700.

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just to present an alternative perspective on things:
if you look at the 12 month XAO chart - compare the Sept 09 level with now = about the same. Now compare the indicators. It reads to me as divergence, thus caution, not much conviction about going higher (just yet anyway).

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

The Dow finished this week at 10328 (up on yesterdays close by 20 points) having clawed its way back up from 10260 halfway through the trading session.

The nasdaq finished on 2211 gaining a significant 31 points on the previous days close.

The XAO closed the week on 4671 maintaining the gap with the Dow but showing some resiliance to stay above 4600.

Next week will be a short week for trading, in the lead up to Christmas Day. I'm waiting to see if the investors taking their cash out for the holiday period are offset by bargain hunters, optimistically, setting themselves up for next year.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just to present an alternative perspective on things:
if you look at the 12 month XAO chart - compare the Sept 09 level with now = about the same. Now compare the indicators. It reads to me as divergence, thus caution, not much conviction about going higher (just yet anyway).

Hello, all those indicators start turning down when the XAO does so where is the divergence? Also wondering what the alternative perspective is because those indicators are mainstream?

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO has had Strong move UP
After UP normal to see Sideways
Even Correction like last time on this chart

THIS time NOW ?
Market has been stronger
The Pattern at the TOP reveals
That there IS supply willing to trade and at slightly lower prices

BUT the underneath of the pattern Gives some nice Pivotal Points
and The action from there has been BULLISH

There is only PRICE VOLUME & TIME
SO these are things only worth looking at

There are more down side failures then upside ones

The most significant thing is the the action has narrowed
and slowed up..

It does not look like significant Distribution

eg A TOP

and there are no divergences where they matter ( between SCALES )

It just looks like a dull period of consolidation
at smaller scales the narrowing into triangle shape is even more clear

Demand must meet supply
must meet distribution

KEY is it has to be absorbed
If it is to become a continuation pattern
of RE accumulation

At the Low of the Column with a B in it
lower prices were emphatically rejected

So that is an important Last point of significant Support
and very much confirmed by a chart one scale DOWN in size..

As activity returns
then direction will be very important..

What to do

atm
CHART says a lot sitting on sidelines
While most others happy to keep their $$ in and wait...

I think unless/ UNTILL the chart breaks down

The TREND IS UP ( chart )
one buys now ( WITH stops )
OR WAITS FOR the move TO BEGIN


seems mkts esp at smaller scales ( traders )
are having failed topping patterns SO far

RE ACCUMULATION

ATM THE ACTION IS NARROW COMPARED TO THE LAST CONSOLIDATION

NARROW dull etc facilitates ?

Motorway


DIVERGENCES ON TIME FRAME CHARTS
arise because the action is always changing speed ( time frames )
while your charts are not..
so sometimes they are real and others times 100% MEANINGLESS Artefacts ( man-made )

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

motorway,

There is only PRICE VOLUME & TIME
SO these are things only worth looking at

If time is one of the things you consider important, then why do you use point and figure charts that take time out of the equasion??

brty

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

That leads to a large OFF TOPIC DISCUSSION ( XAO )

THE P&F CHART is a chart of the TIME INTRINSIC of the instrument
it is the thing itself

Time of the clock is intrinsic to the Earth's movement around the sun

THERE such time has meaning it is a continuous variable
eg you can divide that movement into any intervals of fractions of a second

The time intrinsic to a stock or market is not of the clock
1 min bars 5 min bars what about .000001 second bars ?

They have no meaning ... They are distortions of Intrinsic Time
and create spurious patterns

XAO moves how it does when it does

JUST
as the Earth around the sun does

USE the time applicable and intrinsic for each case...
A P&F chart of the EARTH is a CLOCK that goes tic tic tic
A P&F chart of the XAO has another very different intrinsic tempo

use one for the other and you find out when and why TIME is an illusion .

Motorway

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

While price takes time to move, time alone does not move price.
----> What is the logic for recording price, when it does not move for a given unit of time? etc In Time FRAMES

clock time is continuous on a CLOCK ( EARTH ETC )
BUT is discrete and discontinuous as a TIMe FRAME on A CHART

STOCKS AND MARKETS do not have orbits in fixed speeds up and down..

The pattern at the top of the chart is significant
The action is going sideways ( The action... Charts with time frames just go sideways ALL THE TIME )

So it is a TOP of something
The thrust of the buying waves shortened

Supply coming in at lower levels with more urgency and/or
rest and consolidation --> demand taking a breather

THE COLUMN WITH THE B in it very decisive
a rejection of thrust UP & all that ground given back.

Pricing flows originate in momentary micro-bursts of volatility that kill liquidity and displace pricing.

The better you can gauge this displacement, the smarter your next positions.

That was a significant response to the action ( test )
That is a KEY POINT

NOW It is a possible mid pattern reaction of an INVERSE FULCRUM

So THE PATTERN is potentially bearish ( it is not complete )
and There are not higher highs in the next phase so far

So I am all ears for the bearish case...

But WHERE is THE GOOD NEWS and should the chart ( INTRINSIC TIME ) become so dull. If this is a major TOP we should see GOOD NEWS and "Whooping UP" facilitating distribution A WIDE mkt ( the chart really narrows and expands )

DOES THE ACTION take on a Different character ? since B

The action narrows and is not giving ground
There is demand seen at the bottom ( NOT OFF we would like to see demand OFF THE BOTTOM )

So that suggests the BULLISH case
of normal end of a LEG in A BULL MARKET ( too much doubt and not enough enthusiasm )

demand meets supply
some distribution
But reaccumulation and absorption

BUT as I said we could just wait

until the relationship between demand and supply becomes sufficiently unbalanced..One side is absorbed, differences of opinion resolved

and a movement triggers a cascade of contingent orders
BUT be READY !

Motorway

 

[Donga]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sideways for a while now, Dubai scare shrugged off and if there was going to be correction it would have been in the past month or so. Global indicators slowly improve and unless we have some really bad news out of US expect we'll continue to drift until the New Year, i.e. bargain hunters to equal impatient traders.

Mid January could be the time to be ready for another spurt.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well done Wysiwyg your call a cupla pages ago with the sideways chart has summed it up lately ........

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Found this to be an interesting Read, with re to the sym triangle.
Will be watching reaction if/when price reaches the apex point, be it a break up or down from the triangle. Hugging the trendline atm, coming up to some resistance, interesting ew position too.

That is an interesting read thanks.

Well done Wysiwyg your call a cupla pages ago with the sideways chart has summed it up lately ........

They're everywhere. Never behaving exactly as they should.

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

motorway,

What is the logic for recording price, when it does not move for a given unit of time

I always thought markets were made up of people who bought and sold. When it comes to our market most participants participate during the hours the market is open, a set value of time. On each day the market is open for a set period (ASX) and the shares price varies during this time.

The real 'secret' of trading is keeping it simple, by using available evidence. Time as in days or set hours (or some other time-frame) is important in knowing how the price acts/reacts.

A meandering price has different meaning to a runaway price as the influence is reflected back on to the traders. In a rising market a runaway price will leave many trying/waiting to catch the upmove, whilst a meandering price will let everyone get aboard.

The market moves in rhythms and waves, time being an important aspect of the flow, not something only related to the size of moves by predetermined guesses (ie a box size), for my trading anyway, each to their own.

brty

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

The real 'secret' of trading is keeping it simple

Exactly
why introduce Time ? Where it does belong ? to complicate things ?

predetermined guesses

Exactly how do you know what time frame to use ? ( this is the real question see below )

Box size ?
changes nothing really no need to guess.
How can it ?
Does anything real change when it is seen from different distances ?


think of what defines the top and bottom of a column
NOTHING that changes with a TIME FRAME

Something about the difference between moved base and time frame based !


Yes -->

Time

as in DURATION

is important

in knowing how price is acting.

each to their own.

That goes without saying
I take it all posts are just for discussion and sharing and learning..

For the ( this ) Poster as much as anyone else.


If you look back in the thread there are a few charts I have posted
They are only for discussion as all posts are.

not something only related to the size of moves by predetermined guesses (ie a box size), for my trading anyway, each to their own.

Think about this How does box size change the market moves ?

Tops and Bottoms are where they are
and the distance between them does not change...
Again the difference between what Dupire calls time based and moved base

On time based YES it all changes with the TIME FRAMES ( slides in the P&F thread )

Time is not the problem ( From a P&F view )We must have Time and USE Time.

It is Time frame that is the problem
Everything changes when you change time frame
because unlike the P&F chart it is the Timeframe drawing the tops and bottoms of the bars !

No matter what Box size or type I use
Demand and supply STILL and ONLY draws the tops and bottoms of the Columns...Nothing REAL changes

Motorway

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

The Nasdaq, the DJIA and the XAO at respective closes for 21-12-09: The Nasdaq appears to be moving ahead with more confidence than the Dow while the XAO is languishing.

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

The Nasdaq, the DJIA and the XAO at respective closes for 21-12-09: The Nasdaq appears to be moving ahead with more confidence than the Dow while the XAO is languishing.

Nulla you might want to compare the XAO to some of the Asian exchanges, we aren't the only ones lagging behind the US.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

How does it compare to the Dax and the Ftse?

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

motorway,

Exactly
why introduce Time ? Where it does belong ? to complicate things ?

Umm, where do I start??

Time is important, it helps simplify things.

In my trading, time, linear time that the markets trade in, is vitally important.

If I implement a position then it needs to prove me right. If it doesn't, then bets off. With P&F time does not matter.

In the last week I have ended 2 positions that were going sideways, in P&F this would not have registered. In my trading assuming wrong until proved correct, I assumed wrong.

With P&F I would be down the gurgler, yet I got out of these positions with a couple of hundred $D+. (I still consider them a loss) and a, pissed off.

As you consider any 'box size
to be important in P&F, it is instantly as useless as any other arbitrary point
considered. It is just a guess.

I go simply by price and time, human time, the real deal.

bye

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

How does it compare to the Dax and the Ftse?

Here nulla. FTSE, DAX, HSI, NIKKEI

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi motorway,

Firstly I agree that this is OT, not the XAO thread that is in sideways motion, that I am currently out of the market.

If the P&F is not moving why are you in the trade ?

I am in a trade simply because my indicators say to put a trade on, nothing else.

If that is your method why would you ignore what the P&F is telling you !

umm, because my experience says it is not so, hey you have to go with what works.

and here is a first point a charting method can be used for anything and anyway you like what makes you think you have to use it in some way that when it stops you have to stay in ?

Ummm, WTF?? could you explain this in english?? I do what works, not some eseroterical mumbogumo. Trading is simple, watch price over time ( human time), which way is the acceleration.

All your questions are off topic so are my answers

Umm, again I'm in a blur. My questions are definately on topic, the XAO is in a sideways pattern.

To use tools in an inept way is the practitioner not the tool
Why stay in if Your method says to get out

I'm out, what is your point?? Clear english would help on this point, from you, that is.

BUT IN ANY CASE THIS IS THE XAO THREAD

Ok, before we get WAY off topic, my point is that I think that human time is important, it has relevance, and my trading according to it seems to back me up (ie lots of wins). I think you have much to offer this forum, yet this little fallacy on time gets in your way of true market performance.
I do not try to predict where the market will go. I simply go where the market is going. Time is of an essence.

Should we start another thread???

I'm only a novice, I've only been following (and trading via shares and futures) the market for 30 years and made many mistakes in that time, what would I know??

Getting back to XAO, basically sideways. Classic technical advice would say consolidation before an up move. I'm prepared to be out of the market and wait, there is no rush.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Brty

All the best for the festive season
and with your trading..



THIS is ALL off topic..

-----

Just been looking at the S&P500

Now there is a tight range holding ground
Nothing like the TOP in 2007/08 SO FAR

So no TOP there it is hard to see a TOP here
The difference is really STARK on that S&P chart

Motorway