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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry I don't actually have an updated chart for today but, I finally became bullish the XAO broke through the 250week moving average.
The chart has the 150dMVA and 250dMVA as you can see by both of them there heading upwards now.
 

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  • xao_ax13mar09_to_23sep09.png
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Re: XAO Analysis

Hey Everyone,

Looking at the XAO Weekly chart -which is important. Use the weekly chart to see where the bigger pitcher.

You can see in the pitcher below that we broke the last two resistance levels and it looks like it is running to the next resistance level which also happen to be the 50% from the entire move down.

Question: Will we go straight up there with out a pull back
Answer.. No one knows, but if you can have the bigger picture in focus when your trading the daily chart then you have a much better chance of making a profitable trade.

Anyway--Hope you enjoy the post

Talk later

Emjai

All information presented is for educational purposes and is based on historical data only. We simply discuss and analyze charting patterns and techical indicators. The information should never be construed as provision of financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any securities or derivatives. Before doing so, you should seek independent advice from your financial planner or advisor.
 

Attachments

  • XAO-.png
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Re: XAO Analysis

Reguardless of the different views we have on the xao,Speculation on Dow will give us a better understanding on which direction we are heading!I mean the old quote still applies"When America sneezes,the world catches a cold".
I mean some people may disagree but we virutally mirror image the dow as of recent.So was hoping if we could have more analysis on the dow?Or is there a dow thread in place?Anyway for the future direction and a better understanding on the xao,We should consider the future direction of the dow!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cutz said:
Yeah i lost my nerve and sold off 25% of my holdings this week and late last week, surely this rally is getting overcooked.
Click to expand...

That's what we/people were saying last week, and the week before, and the month before, and ...

The only trouble with trying to picking the top (esp if it's only a minor top), is you have to be pretty damn close, at exit, and re-entry. Sell and it goes up another 5%, and it's got to come down at least 5% before you are any better off.

Then you'd be tempted to wait "oh it needs to comes down another 10% from here for it to be decent value". Then it may only come down 8%, by the time it turns and goes up again. Then you may be convinced it's just a false break, but by the time you realise it's not, you're probably back at the 0% mark, and may have well have just held without fluffing around
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just removed about 30 off topic posts from this thread.

If you have any XAO analysis then feel free to post it. If you would like to talk about something else then please take it to another thread.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

1st target 4596

2nd target 4497

PERSONAL OPINION ONLY

probably wrong , often am

take from it what you wish
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
1st target 4596

2nd target 4497

PERSONAL OPINION ONLY

probably wrong , often am

take from it what you wish
Click to expand...

Nun why do you project those targets?

Using the words think, feel, etc wont cut it
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Nun why do you project those targets?

Using the words think, feel, etc wont cut it
Click to expand...

MY percieved pivot points as in MY percieved support bounce areas

them targets quoted are all give or take 10 points

i did point out yesterday that yesterday was the high for the short term but that post was removed as it was amongst a BHP chart and trade reply i gave

like i said .could be wrong
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Not XAO specific but impacts nevertheless.

Any theories on the large gap up closing of three of the big four accompanied by large volumes.

Portfolio rejigging maybe.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm not sure what the numbers will be, but based on the psychology or more specifically the changing sociology of the Asian community in particular... whereas it's traditionally been the case of ' when the USA sneezes, we catch a cold'... I'm expecting that paradym is gradually changing to when China sneezes...

I think we need to wait to see how the gov's follow up on all these stimulus packages... ie to see how people perceive them and what sort of financial strategy people adopt, eg more saver and lower debt or continue unabated with low savings and high debt.

But having said that I can't imagine the major gov's letting up on their committment to kneejerk the economy out of recession. As many economists are now expecting inflationary pressure to kick in, the trick will be how well they can tame inflation and follow through on all those regulatory improvements, particularly in the US, that seem to be now fading in urgency as the worst 'appears' to be over.

The bottom line... I'm going with the notion that people are starting to feel more assured that the US in particular is starting to focus more on domestic social issues than the previous obsession with the Iraq war and when people feel more secure about their social sircumstances, eg some basic public health and welfare systems, they will tend to be less concerned with their financial burden to cover these types of economic expenses themselves and carry on normal daily business. That being the case no more major shake-outs as before on 'asleep-at-the-wheel' GWB's shift.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

my posts re the XAO are merely my thoughts for the next few trade sessions ie next week to reach targets .NOTHING more ..
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nun, your last analysis was spot on and I bought you an e-beer but it was deleted. Congrats anyway.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Joe Blow said:
Just removed about 30 off topic posts from this thread.
Click to expand...

Now there's an offer I can't refuse.

Mr Burns choosing to buy big 4 Banks over a new car, is XAO analysis at it's most perceptive, and, what's more easier to understand than EW

Regards
Ray
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RayG said:
Now there's an offer I can't refuse.

Mr Burns choosing to buy big 4 Banks over a new car, is XAO analysis at it's most perceptive, and, what's more easier to understand than EW

Regards
Ray
Click to expand...

The shares have gone up $1000, the same money in the bank would have earned $18

Im not looking at the price again for 5 years

Seriously, I know the market's inflated a bit but I dont see any disasters on the horizon for a few more years yet when all this borrowing comes home to roost.

The markets come up 50% above it's lows but it's still 50% down on it's high so I figured it was a reasonable bet and I'm not trading, it's for a longer term.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
you have a different view m8 ?
Click to expand...

No I don't have any targets currently only that the trend is up supported by rising volume, waiting to see if the move up will validate or invalidate the EW wave 4 scenario.

I don't care if it confirms or not (I do follow EW but expecting it to work more than 50% to me defies market common sense) but being an index I would expect it to show a reasonable compliance to a pattern or two.

So still long everything until the trend goes down.

Attached the Weekly interestingly it makes no difference whether semi log or linear this move up has been very sharp.

.
 

Attachments

  • XAO 18-09.png
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Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
So still long everything until the trend goes down.

Attached the Weekly interestingly it makes no difference whether semi log or linear this move up has been very sharp.

.
Click to expand...


yep i have no reasons to exit any longs except normal individual trailing stops/stoplosses.

my thoughts posted only looking at short term basis for next week , finding it hard too look much further currently


thanks for your thoughts
 
Re: XAO Analysis

well just going on with whats being said here and looking at the charts, we should get to 5000, (4950-5000) but i think we would see a pause at this level or even some retracement.
 
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