XAO Technical Analysis

ThingyMajiggy · 8 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
"we may see a test back to the 4535 level"

Do you mean 4435..?

No I mean 4535, it depends if we hold above it or not, usually when you see a breakout into new highs, on stronger volume, it usually tests the downside, depending on how bullish it is, so hence why I said depends how much further up we go on todays bar, if at all, so say if it pushed up to 4560, just as an example, ideally I would then watch for it to test the downside(the breakout from 4535). etc etc. dunno if I'm making sense? we may see a test anyway, but I would like to see the test above 4535, the high of the high volume day(2nd Sep). time will tell

thanks nun

RayG · 11 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

ThingyMajiggy said:
No I mean 4535, it depends if we hold above it or not, usually when you see a breakout into new highs, on stronger volume, it usually tests the downside, depending on how bullish it is, so hence why I said depends how much further up we go on todays bar, if at all, so say if it pushed up to 4560, just as an example, ideally I would then watch for it to test the downside(the breakout from 4535). etc etc. dunno if I'm making sense? we may see a test anyway, but I would like to see the test above 4535, the high of the high volume day(2nd Sep). time will tell

thanks nun

Holding above that 4535 level nicely at present, does that mean we may see a test of last years support at around 5000 in the next few weeks?

I don't think I can put it any simpler than the attached chart.

On a side note, 4600 as I recall was wheepo's exit point, so I guess his views and strategy are now well and truly vindicated.

Regards
Ray

Broadway · 13 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Oil down nearly $4 on Friday night.
That's gotta hurt the xao early this week.
Anyone brave enough to be short?

Nyden · 13 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Oil down nearly $4 on Friday night.
That's gotta hurt the xao early this week.
Anyone brave enough to be short?

Why would that hurt the xao? We're not Saudi Arabia. Futures are pointing to a measly couple of points down. Funny how every little event must mean we're headed for a tumble, eh?

Broadway · 14 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Enough of a slide for one morning.
We might be heading back up now for a while.
Interesting to see what mood the hsi is in.

Sunder · 14 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Enough of a slide for one morning.
We might be heading back up now for a while.
Interesting to see what mood the hsi is in.

Market disagrees - decided to sink another 15 points shortly after you posted that. :

moXJO · 14 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Enough of a slide for one morning.
We might be heading back up now for a while.
Interesting to see what mood the hsi is in.

You trading the spi and catch the move?

Timmy · 14 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
Market disagrees - decided to sink another 15 points shortly after you posted that. :

Pretty easy picking off people in hindsight, eh?

Broadway · 14 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
Market disagrees - decided to sink another 15 points shortly after you posted that. :

Ya, stopped on that one. Called the lod too early.

skyQuake · 14 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Haha those robots on WPL squeezed the crap out of the shorters. Oil down 3%? Who cares!

nunthewiser · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

anyone short ?

Broadway · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
anyone short ?

Hey nun,

I think theres more chance to go down than up. ES now around 1042/3.

Last night some volume on the peak of SMH.(plus other etfs). Makes me bearish for the next 24-48 hours.

Problem is there was alot of volume in today's asia lod, and the way yesterday's dip in the ES got pushed straight back up to 1040 was inspiring for bulls.

So im bearish but not stubborn about it.
Good luck.

nunthewiser · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Hey nun,

I think theres more chance to go down than up. ES now around 1042/3.

Last night some volume on the peak of SMH.(plus other etfs). Makes me bearish for the next 24-48 hours.

Problem is there was alot of volume in today's asia lod, and the way yesterday's dip in the ES got pushed straight back up to 1040 was inspiring for bulls.

So im bearish but not stubborn about it.
Good luck.

cheers for that

im currently in 2 ASX short positions entered today but BOTH on guarenteed stops just in case i get gapped overnight .

same re bearish but willing to flip at any given mo .....

Not actually trading tonight as the bourbon seemed to hold more of a attraction at the mo

RayG · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
anyone short ?

Taking profits today, I'm not really bearish, just expecting the long awaited correction is imminent, and getting myself positioned to buy when the opportunity comes along.

Still bullish longer term.

Regards
Ray

Garpal Gumnut · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

RayG said:
Taking profits today, I'm not really bearish, just expecting the long awaited correction is imminent, and getting myself positioned to buy when the opportunity comes along.

Still bullish longer term.

Regards
Ray

Why are you bullish long term mate?
What is long term, 20 years?
Apart from coal, gas, oil and uranium this market imho is headed for lows of the century.

gg

white_goodman · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Why are you bullish long term mate?
What is long term, 20 years?
Apart from coal, gas, oil and uranium this market imho is headed for lows of the century.

gg

just waiting for stimulus to stop or a couple of bad audits to filter thru atm

RayG · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Why are you bullish long term mate?
What is long term, 20 years?
Apart from coal, gas, oil and uranium this market imho is headed for lows of the century.

gg

Hi GG,

You forgot Iron.

My timeframe is more investing rather than trading, I just dabble a bit really.
So I see Australia as being well positioned over the next few years, particularly the resources you already mentioned.

Regards
Ray

Garpal Gumnut · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

RayG said:
Hi GG,

You forgot Iron.

My timeframe is more investing rather than trading, I just dabble a bit really.
So I see Australia as being well positioned over the next few years, particularly the resources you already mentioned.

Regards
Ray

I actually reckon Iron will fall in value. The Chinese are accumulating and many will sell for the lowest price just to keep cash flow.

I'm no funnymentalist though.

Just going on what I read in Ralph.

gg

Sean K · 15 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
just waiting for stimulus to stop

There will probably just be another stimulus if things go pear again.

Garpal Gumnut · 16 September 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
There will probably just be another stimulus if things go pear again.

Ever tried to stimulate a pear when its falling to go back up on the tree?

gg

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