XAO Technical Analysis

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hire one for a month or so.

Cheaper and you'll eventually get over it.

Wise words.

 

[drsmith]

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't want to be around if it falls to 300 but then that may not be an issue.

A fall of that magnitude globally would require such a serious setback to civilisation as to significantly reduce the global human population.

 

[Muschu]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hire one for a month or so.

Cheaper and you'll eventually get over it.

I agree "Wise words". Cars, houses, boats are just that and only that. They can become distractions to valuing family, relationships, health and the plight of so many millions of others.

I have no answers but often have to remind myself of how fortunate I already am.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Re: XAO Analysis

They can become distractions to valuing family, relationships, health and the plight of so many millions of others.

Buy one for your son, your girlfriend(don't yell your wife), push it up your drive way everyday and let anyone have a drive.

Simple

Nothing wrong with having a hobby/interest or two, not much point trying to please everyone, that has an even higher failure rate than traders. IMO ofcourse

BTW, pfffft it aint no race car, go by the Nissan dealership and pick up a new GTR if you want a decent race car with a sound that gives you shivers : About the same money too, suck the doors clean off the M3.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Excuse me fellas if I could interrupt you conversation,

I think the Bears are in trouble here. Its very possible that we are going straight up with the talk of not letting up on the stimulus from the monkeys at the G20 over the weekend.

Thats a big green light to assets inflation. The Currencies are certainly taking it that way this morn.

 

[swm79]

Re: XAO Analysis

still, the US keeps loosing jobs... whens that going to stop?!... and they cheered on friday when they ONLY lost 216,000 in August because it was the lowest monthly fall in a year!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

still, the US keeps loosing jobs... whens that going to stop?!... and they cheered on friday when they ONLY lost 216,000 in August because it was the lowest monthly fall in a year!

point being? .....you expect jobs to be created before any recovery starts?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

still, the US keeps loosing jobs... whens that going to stop?!... and they cheered on friday when they ONLY lost 216,000 in August because it was the lowest monthly fall in a year!

I suppose the question the stock market is asking is: 'is this as bad as it gets?'

If so, then it's a potential near term bottom. Buy, buy, buy!

Or, unemployment goes to 50% and nothing is factored in.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Excuse me fellas if I could interrupt you conversation,

I think the Bears are in trouble here. Its very possible that we are going straight up with the talk of not letting up on the stimulus from the monkeys at the G20 over the weekend.

Thats a big green light to assets inflation. The Currencies are certainly taking it that way this morn.

I know which way the USD is going to be taking it, just a matter of time for parity for the AU, and the consequences for exporters?

point being? .....you expect jobs to be created before any recovery starts?

If you look at the figures within the figures, I would like to actually see some sort of genuine job creation, not just a lower level of job destruction due to government subsidised job creation. The underemployed rate is still 17% - the US is still in a depression - the focus is now on prime loans going sour, ie the second dip down is imminent?

As for the XAO, a big pffft this morning so far after the US window dressing effort. Come on fellas, you can do better than that

If P/E ratio's are your thing, then looks like getting back to trend, perhaps even overbought already. Or maybe Mr Market is factoring in Mr Rudds 4%+ growth rates to bump up the E part, going forward

 

[surfziggy]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm going to let someone else do the heavy lifting. The yanks are properly back from holidays this week. I reckon we'll see some direction then.

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

Down to 4420, then a clear run to 4800, that's how I see it.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Down to 4420, then a clear run to 4800, that's how I see it.

We like to see analysis and substance to the calls here. Feel free to post some analysis.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Geez our market is still bullish.The dow in which we follow has had thin volume and scarey to think most people on wall street are trading the big four failed banks(freddie mac/citigroup/bank of america & fannie mae).As to add we all think the month of september traditionally trades downwards,further note when i see the goverment spining up we are out of a recession with still high unemployment and impending higher interest rates on the horizon i get nervous.
Well maybe im just a bear deep down,After Humphrey b bear was axed from channel nine i havn't been the samesorry just some light humour).

In through the back door.....spooky......

My best guess? We’re seeing a massive infusion of capital into very troubled financial institutions, no doubt aided by short covering and the participation of program traders and proprietary daytrading firms. Where is the capital coming from? Why has it poured in so suddenly (the really large infusions began in early August)? Why is it coming in at such a pace that it is dominating NYSE volume? Zero Hedge rightly wonders why this hasn’t triggered alarms at the exchange. And why is it happening with only the weakest financial institutions?
If you were the government and you saw that these institutions were on the verge of a major fail, with billions of taxpayer dollars at risk, I’m not sure you’d announce that to the world. Nor, at this point politically, could you ask for yet another bailout package. But you would only pour money into those stocks at a frantic pace (capable of detection) if you perceived a dire need for the capital.
I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets.

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Analysis

From Crikey, something's got to give surely.

US unemployment a social powder keg
Glenn Dyer writes:

Yes, Friday night's employment figures were better than expected: just 216,000 jobs went last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7% because more people went looking for work, a sign of increasing confidence among the unemployed.

And yet that's a bit of a mirage because it hides the continuing pain and agony across thousands of American cities and towns.

As well five more American banks failed on Friday night in another few hours of financial bloodletting in the US heartland: all were small and 89 have now collapsed so far this year. That's another part of the picture with job losses in some towns and cities and rising bad debts starting to impact on financial institutions.

The economic slowdown may be reversing itself (American economists are talking about growth of 3-4% annual for the rest of this year, and surging corporate profits, but millions of Americans are being left behind having lost their houses, their jobs, having hours and pay cut and worse, more than 34 million are on some sort of government food aid, so desperate are their circumstances.

It's rotten. This recession has been so tough that the powerhouse of US growth, the private sector, has seen the loss of so many jobs that employment is now lower than it was back in 1999 when the tech and net booms was flourishing.

223,000 fewer people were employed in the US private sector last month than in August, 1999, and yet the American population has grown by about 33 million people in that decade.

131.2 million was the estimated number of people employed in the private sector in the US in August, down 6.9 million people since the slump started in December 2007.

7.4 million is the estimated rise in unemployment since then, which means it has nearly doubled to 14.9 million last month.

198,000 was the drop in private sector employment in August and that took private sector employment under the level it was in 1999. So what about Government jobs?

2.1 million US jobs were created from 1999 to this year, but that is actually the worst performance for the Government sector in any 10-year period since the recession of 17 years ago.

544,000 jobs in healthcare have been created since the recession started in December 2007. Now these are not high-paying jobs, mostly low-paid hourly labour as attendants, assistants etc. No matter, Americans are working shorter and their income isn't setting the world on fire.

33.1 in the number of hours Americans worked last month, down 0.3% and the lowest since this figure was first collected back in 1964.

14.9 million is now the number of unemployed, long-term unemployed reached 9.1 million last month, up 278,000 from July. This figure is greater than the 216,000 overall loss in US jobs in the month.

5 million is now the number of people who've been out of work longer than six months, around one-third of the unemployed, while another measure of underemployment that includes discouraged workers and those forced to resort to part-time work, rose to 16.8% from 16.3%, the highest on record dating back to 1995.

6 cents was the rise on US average hourly earnings on the month (or 0.3%), to $US18.65 ($A21.90) an hour. In the past year, average hourly earnings are up 2.6%.

6.6% was the increase in US productivity in the June quarter, a performance that has gotten some economists and every corporate analyst salivating. Economists because they just love productivity increases because they tell a good story and make the economy, well, more productive; analysts because the increase will mean a surge in corporate earnings over the next few quarters with business costs rising because unit labour costs are falling.
That improvement comes at a horrible cost and is the downside of the green shoot's story. As Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has warned time and again, the recovery, when it comes, will be slow and won't feel like a recovery because unemployment will be high. And this is a male recession (as it is here in Australia).

10.1% is the unemployment rate for adult men in the US, "whites (8.9%), and Hispanics (13.0%) rose in August. The jobless rates for adult women (7.6%), -- teenagers (25.5%), and blacks (15.1%) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5%, not seasonally adjusted," The US department of Labor said in its release.
No matter what any of the hindsight economists claim about the Australian recession, it's clear we have had nothing of the sort. Ordinary Americans are the real victims of this crunch. Their lives and their futures have been destroyed by the millions and will continue to do so for months to come.

Back in 1991, The New York Times carried this story about a sharp increase in the number of people receiving food stamps -- 23.6 million.

Now this story from last month tells us that more than 34 million people are receiving them. Or one in nine Americans. If it was Australia, it would be about 2.3 million people if we had a similar program and a similar lack of a social safety net. In parts of California, Nevada and Indiana unemployment rates of 15% to 18% are common.

 

[swm79]

Re: XAO Analysis

point being? .....you expect jobs to be created before any recovery starts?

i'd like to see the job losses stop at least. unemployment is now at 9.7%!

the market is factoring in a decline in the number of job losses as meaning a slowing of the rate of losses which it believes to mean it will eventually stop.

because of that its not factoring in what the job losses are creating - a lack of production capacity.

Add to that the fact that the number of people now working part time or less hours than they usually would and what have we got?

a hugely under-employed country who is STILL losing jobs at a phenominal rate.

how many people are going to the welfare office and cashing dole cheques?

And they're STILL rolling out the stimulus and printing MORE money.

granted the unemployment data is the laggingest of the lagging indicators... but its as though the market hears the figures and ignores them!

check out what's happened to gold in the last week - thats got to tell you something... and if it isnt why isnt oil or industrial metals outperforming it???

 

[swm79]

Re: XAO Analysis

I suppose the question the stock market is asking is: 'is this as bad as it gets?'

If so, then it's a potential near term bottom. Buy, buy, buy!

Or, unemployment goes to 50% and nothing is factored in.

i think thats why at the moment the market is hovering in a "wait and see" pattern... if we dont see REAL positive data coming out those FY11 guidance figures the market is pricing in (not the FY10!!!) are going to seem REAL thin!

i think this rally has been on the back of the herds fear of missing out.

TH - i know you love the "looks overbought, due for a XXXX etc etc"

but i just cant see reliable REAL bullish data.

with that said, i'm not 100% bear.... my holdings arent 0... but i'm only buying things i see with real potential in FY10 or PURE long term growth plays

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

check out what's happened to gold in the last week - thats got to tell you something... and if it isnt why isnt oil or industrial metals outperforming it???

Well the tin hat brigade will tell you this is the big one and the USD is about to COLLAPSE.

A more likely cause, IMHO, is risk money playing the "what has to catch up game".

 

[swm79]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well the tin hat brigade will tell you this is the big one and the USD is about to COLLAPSE.

A more likely cause, IMHO, is risk money playing the "what has to catch up game".

i totally agree that the risk money is switching to laggards. you can see that in the BHP price on a slow decline after being overbought... as traders are realising that being underweight BHP isnt such a bad thing... given that to be overweight BHP you now need the size of a small countries economy.

Plus, you can buy BHP and RIO in the UK at a substantial discount to here... for the same companies.

USD will never collapse while countries like China and Japan have their donkey bonds!

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well the tin hat brigade will tell you this is the big one and the USD is about to COLLAPSE.

A more likely cause, IMHO, is risk money playing the "what has to catch up game".

personally I cant see the USD collapsing in the medium term... would be catastrophic to world exporters, the world still needs the US till another consumer steps into its place

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Heres what I'm looking at.

It's interesting, all this doom and gloom, everything pointing to a tank back to the march lows ANY day now....but theres just one thing? It isn't happening. Yet anyway. Seems things are being supported at this stage. I think its important to be trading the now.

Would like to see a wide push up through the 4535 I have marked on strong volume, only thing that worries me now is the current volume, would have liked to see todays bar on stronger volume...but as I say, its still going up, despite how much negativity there is. Take what I say with a grain of salt though, still learning, thought I might as well keep this thread on track.

...more on my blog for those interested.(sig)