XAO Technical Analysis

Timmy · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
Ex

What is proper analysis?

Is it an article on a blog written by someone whos opinion is the same as yours or is it figures released by Economists, Government bodies or supposedly independent bodies?

Many of the conspiracy theorists on here debunk most of the reports by a lot of the bodies or recognised Economists yet choose to link to Blogs to articles written by, in many cases (but not all), someone who has no standing in the Business or Economic community.

However many on here will remark at what a brilliant article it was.

Imo it was a brilliant article to them because it backs up their thoughts on the direction of the market, not because its statistics are any more correct or verifiable than those released by other sources.

So what is proper analysis?

Amen to this.
Confirmation bias is rife, as is marrying a view (subsequent posters have mentioned these).
Reading a lot of the articles/blogs/comments from the bears over the past months the thing that has most stood out to me has been the way most of them are absolutely incensed that the market direction has proven them wrong.
The rage coming through the writing is almost palpable.
Happily, one day the market will fall, even if only a bit, and they can all say "I told you so", recover some face and equanimity and carry on.

Buckeroo · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
Amen to this.
Confirmation bias is rife, as is marrying a view (subsequent posters have mentioned these).
Reading a lot of the articles/blogs/comments from the bears over the past months the thing that has most stood out to me has been the way most of them are absolutely incensed that the market direction has proven them wrong.
The rage coming through the writing is almost palpable.
Happily, one day the market will fall, even if only a bit, and they can all say "I told you so", recover some face and equanimity and carry on.

Its funny how the bulls only listen to upstanding economic experts & the bears only listen to bloggers? What a rant.

I'm afraid if you can't digest the facts properly & only listen to people trying to increase your confidence in the face of an impending disaster, then prepare for the soup kitchen - no doubt eventually, I will be donating money to feed you.

Cheers

Timmy · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Buckeroo said:
Its funny how the bulls only listen to upstanding economic experts & the bears only listen to bloggers? What a rant.

And the sensible people listen to the market.

nunthewiser · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
And the sensible people listen to the market.

amen

while the rest whine about it

Buckeroo · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
And the sensible people listen to the market.

And we all know the market is based around the cycle of emotion - I prefer to stick with the facts thanks.

Cheers

nunthewiser · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Buckeroo said:
And we all know the market is based around the cycle of emotion - I prefer to stick with the facts thanks.

Cheers

and hows that working out for you ?

yep sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen whilst a 50% bounce occurs on some stocks sure sounds like a great way to make some cash

RayG · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
Hitler Misses Out on the 2009 Bull Market - Video

Loved it.... absolutely brilliant

thanks for posting that.

Regards
Ray

Buckeroo · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
and hows that working out for you ?

yep sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen whilst a 50% bounce occurs on some stocks sure sounds like a great way to make some cash

Who says I'm not in stocks? I don't see how that has anything to do with your views on where the market is headed in the future.

Cheers

Naked shorts · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
and hows that working out for you ?

yep sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen whilst a 50% bounce occurs on some stocks sure sounds like a great way to make some cash

+1

p.s. mods we should get a "recommend post" feature added.

skc · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Buckeroo said:
And we all know the market is based around the cycle of emotion - I prefer to stick with the facts thanks.

Cheers

The fact is that the market is based around the cycle of emotion...

So trade the emotion = trade the fact... same same.

white_goodman · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

skc said:
The fact is that the market is based around the cycle of emotion...

So trade the emotion = trade the fact... same same.

same same but different

Broadway · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
Hitler Misses Out on the 2009 Bull Market - Video

'and Australia didn't even have a recession..'

I thought asx stocks were bought again on today's dips.

Up more for the next day or two.

Maybe 'better than expected' news tonight.

white_goodman · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
'and Australia didn't even have a recession..'

"Its ok Anna, natural gas is just in a bottoming phase"

MR. · 27 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Ahhh when will that market darling ever get back to that 18 or 24?

Hard not to have made some money in recent months, ha ha ha. Will admit did attack with way too little conviction. So guess I’m a still standin in Hitler’s office........ Think I liked the older version of that clip more so! Avoided the drop. Didn’t recognize the rebound. Bugger, and Nun thought I’d know when the time was right to jump back in! Ummm .......

Wonder if this rebound is the one I wrote of back in Feb? ..... Can't be..... We ain't even in a recession are we?

nunthewiser · 28 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

MR. said:
Ahhh when will that market darling ever get back to that 18 or 24?

Hard not to have made some money in recent months, ha ha ha. Will admit did attack with way too little conviction. So guess I’m a still standin in Hitler’s office........ Think I liked the older version of that clip more so! Avoided the drop. Didn’t recognize the rebound. Bugger, and Nun thought I’d know when the time was right to jump back in! Ummm .......

Wonder if this rebound is the one I wrote of back in Feb? ..... Can't be..... We ain't even in a recession are we?

crashnburn market darlings to 18

when we chatted you stated you was an investor NOT a trader .. big difference .

fwiw i still think we will see new lows before we see this bear over and done with

dont mean im gunna sit around and wait in the meantime tho

and yeah what recession ? ..... still sitting on a tip of an iceburg i personally think .... but hey i dont have a degree , nor have letters after my name , nor do i appear on "sunrise " in the morning so what would i know hey ............

IFocus · 28 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
Amen to this.
Confirmation bias is rife, as is marrying a view (subsequent posters have mentioned these).
Reading a lot of the articles/blogs/comments from the bears over the past months the thing that has most stood out to me has been the way most of them are absolutely incensed that the market direction has proven them wrong.
The rage coming through the writing is almost palpable.
Happily, one day the market will fall, even if only a bit, and they can all say "I told you so", recover some face and equanimity and carry on.

Adding to Timmy's comments a lot of arguments sort of go like the following....

"Traders do the same thing. They have an opinion and then they search for clues/evidence/support to back/justify their views. If they think the market is going up, they’ll key on the 4 indicators that tell them the market is going to rally and conveniently ignore the 3 that offer warnings. You’ve heard me say 1000 times, trade what happens, not what you want to happen or think should happen."

http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=1732

Garpal Gumnut · 28 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

I do like the chart of the xao attached on the home page of asf.

This morning it looks like my old uncle Cecil heading for breakfast in his nursing home in Bendigo.

Slow slow keep on going , its breakfast.

Lets hope he doesn't fall over, and gets to sit down for his muesli, poor bugger.

gg

Garpal Gumnut · 28 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

What a diff an hour makes. Looks like Cecil has given up, dropped the plate, not a chunder though. Being led back to room !!

gg

jersey10 · 28 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
crashnburn market darlings to 18

fwiw i still think we will see new lows before we see this bear over and done with

Really? That would be some sort of dramatic crash if it were to eventuate. What is your timeframe for this?

cutz · 28 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
nor do i appear on "sunrise " in the morning so what would i know hey ............

Actually sunrise is a fairly good contrarian indicator, what's the latest from Koshy ??, good times to come, the start of a massive bull market ??

Anticipating a massive correction, got nothing to back me up though.

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