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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
trick is not getting killed shorting in the next few weeks of potential up thrusts imo
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Interesting opinion.
Mine is still where it has been for a while.
Bearish as we are still in a medium term up move short term down move.

Not buying longs was selling them all day. (No not shorting).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Interesting opinion.
Mine is still where it has been for a while.
Bearish as we are still in a medium term up move short term down move.

Not buying longs was selling them all day. (No not shorting).
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seems a few of us are in this camp
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Expect all the doomsdayers will go quiet again and wait for the next few days of sell offs before they pop out again. Let's say the contrarians are correct, that there are still some fundamental wrinkles in the system to iron out (and there will always be some). As an old red ragger I recognise there are still some significant ones out there.

Fact is China won't change their system in a hurry, they want domestic growth and have the will and $s to drive that. The US have had enough GFC for a few years and haven't the stomach to face another. A serious downturn in the stockmarkets would slow down the real economy recovery as well.

Some ramblings to underline my conviction the ASX will continue to recover towards 5000 with a few minor corrections along the way.

Begs the question of will the current reforms slowly going through happen in time to avert another GFC not long after we've recovered from this one? I would be all for reducing the influence and paypackets of the finance industry for starters. ASX being reined in will not hurt, as long as ASIC is up to it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Donga said:
Expect all the doomsdayers will go quiet again and wait for the next few days of sell offs before they pop out again. .
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i used to today to add to my short position on a leading market darling ..... hey i could be wrong but i have a stoploss button for that
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hey Nun - why the continued secrecy on your leading market darling. Weren't you taught to share in the monastery?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Donga said:
Expect all the doomsdayers will go quiet again and wait for the next few days of sell offs before they pop out again. Let's say the contrarians are correct, that there are still some fundamental wrinkles in the system to iron out (and there will always be some). As an old red ragger I recognise there are still some significant ones out there.

Fact is China won't change their system in a hurry, they want domestic growth and have the will and $s to drive that. The US have had enough GFC for a few years and haven't the stomach to face another. A serious downturn in the stockmarkets would slow down the real economy recovery as well.

Some ramblings to underline my conviction the ASX will continue to recover towards 5000 with a few minor corrections along the way.

Begs the question of will the current reforms slowly going through happen in time to avert another GFC not long after we've recovered from this one? I would be all for reducing the influence and paypackets of the finance industry for starters. ASX being reined in will not hurt, as long as ASIC is up to it.
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Struth, you need to do a bit of research, China is in all sorts of sh.t The current reforms are failing everywhere, open the eyes and study some proper analysis.

The asx is struggling in the charts, pops up only on the us dow hot air and like it, is very close to the next tumble.

Macquarie, cant believe the price of crap here, the ponzi continues.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Donga said:
Fact is China won't change their system in a hurry, they want domestic growth and have the will and $s to drive that. The US have had enough GFC for a few years and haven't the stomach to face another. A serious downturn in the stockmarkets would slow down the real economy recovery as well.

Some ramblings to underline my conviction the ASX will continue to recover towards 5000 with a few minor corrections along the way.
Click to expand...

I agree pretty much with the way you are thinking, no doubt we will see a correction sometime soon, but my feeling is that it will be a shallow dip on the XAO when compared with the US markets. If that proves to be the case, then we can argue that the XAO is more likely to be coupled to China in the future rather than the US.

China is a bit of a wildcard in this scenario, I don't think anyone yet understands how their economy really functions, except to say that they have enough resources (people and money) to do whatever they want.

So, still thinking 5000 by Christmas with a shallow (5-10%) pull back to maybe 4100 or so between now and then.

Might be time to take a profit, and wait for the dip?

Regards
Ray
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi explod - Research on China? All I need to know is they have low labour costs, good education, funds galore and strong central planning. Politically they need to keep growing and have the bucks to fuel it, so it is and will continue to happen, baring major civil disobediance. I receive despatches from my brother who lives in China and talk with my colleaugues in our company there, that'll do me.

Ray - I'm with you except I don't sell to get back in as a rule, admire those who do. I might trim as did today with MMR or move into other sectors at some time as heavily into mining at present, but don't think that sector is going to suffer unduly during the inevitable minor corrections on the way back to 5000. China bubble burst and all bets are off! Just my thoughts and no guru, so DYOR.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Donga said:
Hey Nun - why the continued secrecy on your leading market darling. Weren't you taught to share in the monastery?
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no secrecy whatsoever . in fact 90% of regulars here would already know who im referring to as its my favorite trade stock short and LONG

bhp for those that are concerned over what im actually trading ...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Struth, you need to do a bit of research, China is in all sorts of sh.t The current reforms are failing everywhere, open the eyes and study some proper analysis.
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Ex

What is proper analysis?

Is it an article on a blog written by someone whos opinion is the same as yours or is it figures released by Economists, Government bodies or supposedly independent bodies?

Many of the conspiracy theorists on here debunk most of the reports by a lot of the bodies or recognised Economists yet choose to link to Blogs to articles written by, in many cases (but not all), someone who has no standing in the Business or Economic community.

However many on here will remark at what a brilliant article it was.

Imo it was a brilliant article to them because it backs up their thoughts on the direction of the market, not because its statistics are any more correct or verifiable than those released by other sources.

So what is proper analysis?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
Ex

What is proper analysis?

Is it an article on a blog written by someone whos opinion is the same as yours or is it figures released by Economists, Government bodies or supposedly independent bodies?

Many of the conspiracy theorists on here debunk most of the reports by a lot of the bodies or recognised Economists yet choose to link to Blogs to articles written by, in many cases (but not all), someone who has no standing in the Business or Economic community.

However many on here will remark at what a brilliant article it was.

Imo it was a brilliant article to them because it backs up their thoughts on the direction of the market, not because its statistics are any more correct or verifiable than those released by other sources.

So what is proper analysis?
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Confirmation bias. We are all guilty of it.

But as a point of order, "standing" in the business or economic community usually means a strong vested interest. I pretty much ignore those with such standing, except as an adjunct to trying to read the market mood.

"Proper" analysis would entail putting hope to one side and just consider the facts... hopefully, confirmation bias doesn't fudge the analysis.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
Ex

What is proper analysis?

Is it an article on a blog written by someone whos opinion is the same as yours or is it figures released by Economists, Government bodies or supposedly independent bodies?

Many of the conspiracy theorists on here debunk most of the reports by a lot of the bodies or recognised Economists yet choose to link to Blogs to articles written by, in many cases (but not all), someone who has no standing in the Business or Economic community.

However many on here will remark at what a brilliant article it was.

Imo it was a brilliant article to them because it backs up their thoughts on the direction of the market, not because its statistics are any more correct or verifiable than those released by other sources.

So what is proper analysis?
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this is very true the other problem is, how reliable and accurate is economic data anyway? unemployment rates are skewed, inflation data etc etc. Also the other problem is some people in the economic community with credibility have worse forecasts/opinions then some bloggers.

I try and look at the perma bullish commentators vs the perma bears and the truth usually is somehwere inbetween, however my bias atm is bearish admittedly
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
Ex

What is proper analysis?

Is it an article on a blog written by someone whos opinion is the same as yours or is it figures released by Economists, Government bodies or supposedly independent bodies?

Many of the conspiracy theorists on here debunk most of the reports by a lot of the bodies or recognised Economists yet choose to link to Blogs to articles written by, in many cases (but not all), someone who has no standing in the Business or Economic community.

However many on here will remark at what a brilliant article it was.

Imo it was a brilliant article to them because it backs up their thoughts on the direction of the market, not because its statistics are any more correct or verifiable than those released by other sources.

So what is proper analysis?
Click to expand...

Proper analysis is when you stop listening or taking any notice of anyone else and go to some good books and learn to measure the real value of the markets for youself. To measure proper p/e against liabilites hidden, (which has unfortunately become the norm) is not an easy task.

Unfortunately good and independant economists who do measure and state exactly how it is are not cheap but are very worthwhile in subscriping to. I do not plug for anyone but you will find the right direction, if you want to. Most people only look for who will tell them what is nice and what backs up what they want. The markets are not like that.

The economists in the news plug for the general financial system itself, an incestuous self serving plug to keep the fees and charges flowing from us mugs.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

also dont marry a bias, see whats presented for analysis and come up with a bias, but dont follow it till the grave if its proven wrong.

The problem with the Schiffs of this world now, although they speak some sense, they are now married to there opinion and have to be proven right or else their careers will soon go down the drain
 
Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Proper analysis is when you stop listening or taking any notice of anyone else and go to some good books and learn to measure the real value of the markets for youself. To measure proper p/e against liabilites hidden, (which has unfortunately become the norm) is not an easy task.
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The trouble with this is a market doesn't represent the true value of anything. It represents what people are willing to pay for it. Better of trying to read which way the herd is trying to run and going along for the ride. Which is why Donga hit the nail on the head methinks.

But you perma bear nutters can think whatever you choose too ;-)
 
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