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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
(ie cant make money off it) now post me something forward looking on the right edge
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As I said, it's all just a bit of fun - bit like all of that 911 numerology stuff - curiosity value only. None of that stuff I posted before is meant to be taken seriously. Trainspotter and RayG got it (cheers guys). If anyone was able to analyze the market with any real significance, do you think they'd be posting it on an internet forum? No way!

The market will do whatever it takes to prove most of us wrong most of the time. The strong rebound today is already demonstrating just that.

Does everything have to be deadly serious all the time? I enjoy nun's comic talent :) and if you can't have an occasional bit of fun, what's the point of living? :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
I love dumb glass comments.
You clearly havent bothered to look back over this thread.
Rather than look for specific exact dates or price levels,Elliott provides strong indication in anticipation.
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EW hasn't proven to predict prices in anticipation at all.

Otherwise my mum, her dog, and her dog's taxi driver, would be trading EW patterns.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think the key word there kennas is anticipation..

I can anticipate something is going to happen very strongly for a long time and probability denotes that it will happen at some point of time.
Not necessarily in the near future though.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, I will not be surprised if someone drags up an hysterical chart that conforms to the 10 million rules of EW to prove it works in the coming minutes. We should just disregard the other 100m charts that didn't magically conform to it.

I would really like to see OWG (and other EW'ers, including tech and Nick) keep posting in the EW and the XAO thread to keep explaining the movements of the index and how and why it doesn't conform to EW projections, or how it can be combined with money management to be an advantage.

EW has been calling a leg down to new lows for months, and I know many people would have stayed out of the market because of that. Or, only gone half in waiting for the pullback.

Is EW still calling that? Probably not. Now they have called a bottom and are right all along.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
EW hasn't proven to be predict prices in anticipation at all.
.
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I take it you have applied and evaluated Elliot Waves Theory to be able to make such a statement.

Elliot Wave is a very popular world wide. I understand this does not make better than anything else around, but for so many to be using it they must see something in it. I am not saying all users would have an edge, but they have a basis of a system. You in your last post have stated you have no system.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I personally haven't Used EW myself for investing/trading so I guess I shouldn't be so quick to judge.

From what I have read EW can be an effective means of trading, however i think its use is more for confirmation of a Buy or Sell.
Which alot of TA is all about.. less about predicting more about verifying.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

micksof said:
I take it you have applied and evaluated Elliot Waves Theory to be able to make such a statement.

Elliot Wave is a very popular world wide. I understand this does not make better than anything else around, but for so many to be using it they must see something in it. I am not saying all users would have an edge, but they have a basis of a system. You in your last post have stated you have no system.
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Can you please give your definition of a system? Are you trying to say EW is a "system" and isn't discretionary?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

micksof said:
I take it you have applied and evaluated Elliot Waves Theory to be able to make such a statement.

Elliot Wave is a very popular world wide. I understand this does not make better than anything else around, but for so many to be using it they must see something in it. I am not saying all users would have an edge, but they have a basis of a system. You in your last post have stated you have no system.
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No Mick, I have been following it for the past couple of years, but not religiously applying it, so perhaps I am wrong. I have not seen a quantatative/qualitative measure of EW's success, but I have only read a couple of their novels. An EW'er could quite easily splash up a 'how to' guide here and be a gazillionaire, but alas, no. In retrospect, perhaps...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Apologies Sam,

I am using the word "system" quite loosely. Call it, approach, analysis, method, or even forecast it's still discretionary.

Kennas

I don't understand you. "Ew" was calling for more downside from March onward e.t.c. EW was no doing anything, it's only a small portion of Ew posters here that were, and because of this you are dismissing Elliott Wave as not a viable analysis.

The best exponent if Elliott is Robert Prechter. He shorted the SP500 a few weeks before it topped and then rode it down 850 points when stated that 5 waves are closed out two weeks before the market bottomed.

The statement that Elliott Waves was predicting further downside is fallacy.
It seems to it's not the method that is at fault here, but rather, how it should be applied. Don't you think ?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

micksof said:
Apologies Sam,

I am using the word "system" quite loosely. Call it, approach, analysis, method, or even forecast it's still discretionary.

Kennas

I don't understand you. "Ew" was calling for more downside from March onward e.t.c. EW was no doing anything, it's only a small portion of Ew posters here that were, and because of this you are dismissing Elliott Wave as not a viable analysis.

The best exponent if Elliott is Robert Prechter. He shorted the SP500 a few weeks before it topped and then rode it down 850 points when stated that 5 waves are closed out two weeks before the market bottomed.

The statement that Elliott Waves was predicting further downside is fallacy.
It seems to it's not the method that is at fault here, but rather, how it should be applied. Don't you think ?
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seems like a very flawed system if not everyone has the same interpretation of it - why is there only one person of note who applied it as such?

and yet the EW's on this thread have been calling it differently??? how is it so?

i may as well flip a coin

lets shoot an arrow and then whatever it hits we'll call the target.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

swm79 said:
seems like a very flawed system if not everyone has the same interpretation of it - why is there only one person of note who applied it as such?

and yet the EW's on this thread have been calling it differently??? how is it so?

i may as well flip a coin

lets shoot an arrow and then whatever it hits we'll call the target.
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Hey, all systems/methods have flaws, if it was a perfect world, we would all be mega rich. To be quite honest, I think most approaches including fundementals ones are open to intepretation.

"Only One Person of Note applied it as such?" Do do you think the only people who use Elliott Waves only post on this little forum?

Let me tell ya something, at the March low the consensus of bulls would have been about 5%, no matter what method they were using, Elliott Waves, Trend folllowers, Fundemenatlists.. whatever!!

Flip a Coin.....:2twocents

At the end of a day a trade is nothing more than any other form of gambling: A 50/50 Bet
 
Re: XAO Analysis

micksof said:
At the end of a day a trade is nothing more than any other form of gambling: A 50/50 Bet
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A 50-50 bet? Go find another hobby mate, you're obviously *not very good if those are the sorts of odds you're playing with, and more importantly; willing to accept! :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

micksof said:
The best exponent if Elliott is Robert Prechter. He shorted the SP500 a few weeks before it topped and then rode it down 850 points when stated that 5 waves are closed out two weeks before the market bottomed.

The statement that Elliott Waves was predicting further downside is fallacy. It seems to it's not the method that is at fault here, but rather, how it should be applied. Don't you think ?
Click to expand...


The best exponent is someone that has been calling for the DOW to fall to 400 since the 1980's:confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Gordon Gekko said:
And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!

A good article on what may follow..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-beyond-stimulus

G
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Thanks for the link Gek. Backs up much of what a lot of us have been saying.

What really stood out is the following quote - 12 months ago this would have seemed like madness.

Never before have so many government dollars been thrown at the economy to prevent a depression. When added together, the combined financial, monetary and fiscal stimuli in the US are more than the cost of the two World Wars and “The New Deal” combined.
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Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Gordon Gekko said:
And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!

A good article on what may follow..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-beyond-stimulus

G
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Thanks for posting that up G/G. Problem is that only those that already know and understand will read or believe it.

As was said earlier in the day, the current wave V is so large on so much hot air that it is not being recognised for the havoc being metered.
 
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