We will definitely know by end of this week which scenario will play outI'm in the top is in over the next few months camp, but that is not to say i am right. Out of interest who is expecting this to break and the S&P to move towards 1000?
Why? Why can't it just chop around and back fill a little like markets spend 99% of the time doing?
Obviously it can chop around, however I find that highly unlikely. Traders are still edgy about the direction, and you need to have a bull market scenario for this to chop around.
out of all the ASX, US and London Stocks I track I'm only geting short signals for what its worth...
personally their will be another down leg atleast before this is over. Also the correlation between the US stock market and US currency I can see being broken in the near future (ie stockmarket down but USD down aswell)
The weekly % movements have been nothing extraordinary for the last 4 months - EXCEPT last week and the breakout weeks in March. And the stats weigh towards consolidation after those strong weeks yet everyone calls for pullbacks because it overbought!! Its seems that again people think indicators work but don't know how they have actually acted in the past.
Markets push and pull to various 50% levels. Its a good bet when people start calling for a pull back we get 50% of what people expect.:
Just look at the poor soles in the gold thread, always getting 50% pushes and pullbacks yet they still wait.:
(thou no doult I will wake to a god almighty crash tomorrow)
I would have thought "traders being edgy about the direction" is why it would chop around, not a "bull market scenario"
FWIW i'm sticking with the trend and i think we are going to grind higher.
Time will tell....
Speaking of the devil, we have broken 960...
I have been lacking the ability to clearly express myself over the last week or so lol, sorry. I don't think we are in a bull market at all. In fact I still see the 40% move as a bear market rally. I think my side of the fence is having less and less followers, and if the dreaded October/November doesn't play out, then most of us will be flooding the bull market side. I think markets chop around so much for three reasons: a) uncertainty, as you suggested, b) increased amount of technical traders with very different views about the same scenarios, c) increased amount of bots being ran by traders and institutions. I don't know if i have added something that doesn't have an impact, nor do I know if I have left anything out. On a side note, don't you think we could see a spike if we break the range?
Some patterns, just for interests sake. I'm probably neutral atm with a slight bullish bias. Needs to break 4100 with some conviction to make me bullish till around 4300-4600, prices back under 3900 could mean more sideways action, under 3700 and I'm bearish.
Daily chart 1st & Weekly chart 2nd.
That's what I see also.
BS rounding top looking likely!
There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........
It's not always easy to get accross what you mean in writing and things can also be taken the wrong way.
lol, it's a bit hard for me to answer your question about the spike now, as it has already spiked
I'm not really big on predictions as i just follow trends but my guess, as i posted elsewhere before when the S&P was up by about 2 points, is that i think we will grind higher and to be honest i now think we are in a new bull market and it will be a V.
Of course i am realistic enough to know not only may i be wrong but we are likely to have some testing times along the way.
As always time will tell.
Edit: Woah up 19.00 on the S&P, noice!!!!!
Really? My investigations have shown that after such overbought condition the bears have no edge. In fact for the short term overbought is usually followed by more momentum. Like I ranted about on Monday,I think you are on the money there about how people use their indicators. I use them at crucial points, for example, if a market is heavily overbought at a major resistance level. That usually proves to be a good base for a move in the opposite direction.
In terms of weekly moves, they have been odd. I was referring more to the range in which equities are moving. We have had many moves where the week ended close to flat, but the range was very wide, i.e. 5-7%. Actually I should stop being lazy and do a histogram of the weekly ranges tomorrow, if I don't forget.
There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........
Hmm, I hope you are rightWhat is a BS rounding top pattern. I only know one popular meaning of BS and thats bullsh*t
Really? My investigations have shown that after such overbought condition the bears have no edge. In fact for the short term overbought is usually followed by more momentum. Like I ranted about on Monday,
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2009/07/good-time-to-be-bearish.html
We have only had a over 5% -7% 4 times since April. The average weekly range since then is 4.10%. That's not odd. As for the large range and finishing flat since the March lows we have only had 3 week, out of 19, were the open and close is within 1%of each other. all the others correlate reasonably well with the High/Low range.
Haha indeed! S&P500 now 10pts off its highs after ur post. Hope u shorted it
Yup, the bullsh*t rounding top. They're supposed to be topping patterns, beauty is they're very easy to get into giving punters plenty of time to get short, before a squeeze to new highs kills all the bears.
Works really well on the SPI and HSI intraday charts, however I have never really looked at one on the daily... Will have to do some work on that today.
Whats really interesting is on the S&P500, We have a daily BS rounding top (had a late squeeze) and also on the 1hr charts (with the bust through 960).
Similar on the SPI (see charts).
I'd be expecting the bears to capitulate today. As all reasons to short are dead and buried. And in motorway's words, market participant's opinions are reaching consensus which is where the turning points are.
Cheers
lol, can't half tell we learnt to trade next to eachother Quake!
Think you covered it all, by I would add the underlying psychology is simply that momentum is slowing and price looks ready to rollover on itself. However, as quite a few do have time to position short, 'they' push it higher to get better fills themselves on the short side before taking it down.
I am a bit concerned however, as I would like to see higher volume on the spike (but the fact that it is summer in Europe/US has me worried).
As far as consensus, that is very true, I believe Credit Suisse was pretty much the last bank to upgrade it's view on the market to a bullish stance.
Ultimately though, I didn't get short. On this odd occassion, I am actually waiting for confirmation as there is a really odd lack of selling pressure (no effort even required to push it through the previous resistance high). I.e. when price was flirting with the high for those 48 odd hours, I was almost certain we would break through, as no selling pressure was coming online INFRONT of the level. From my experience on order flow, when this happens, most of the time, the break up through is a high probability play.
The fact that I got farked on oil being squeezed down and chopped around for 12 minutes after the US smashed the high on what was clearly not a false break, leaves a bitter taste in my mouth!!!!!!
BTW, is ASF slow as sh*t these days or is it just my comp?
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