XAO Technical Analysis

RayG · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Cash is king, always will be, gives you more leverage.

So, how much of a dip is required before you put some of that cash to work? 3500? lower....

Regards
Ray

BTW, I like the avatar, but, you do know what Al Capone was nailed for don't you?

Garpal Gumnut · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

RayG said:
So, how much of a dip is required before you put some of that cash to work? 3500? lower....

Regards
Ray

BTW, I like the avatar, but, you do know what Al Capone was nailed for don't you?

2400

Nice round number.

See my chart above 1 week ago.

I pays me taxes. I see it as an investment in Australia, although I sometimes doubt the wisdom of those who spend it.

I can sympathise with Alphonse's reluctance.

gg

gg

Sean K · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Hope over reality mate see attached chart

Perception is reality.

Yours does look neater though.

Garpal Gumnut · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Perception is reality.

Yours does look neater though.

Agree it is perception.

My 3 is bigger than yours however.

Not that I like to brag about the size of my 3.

gg

tech/a · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Nasdaq
XAO
lining up-- analysis pretty well the same.
Again I dont see much changing from the analysis I have been posting for sometime.

Its weak.
Look with skepticism at long plays and be actively involved in low risk short plays.

You should work on your basic Elliott Guys!!
Both charts WEEKLY
Top chart QQQQ
Bottom ORDS

Click to expand

Sean K · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
You should work on your basic Elliott Guys!!
Both charts WEEKLY

The daily didn't represent my perception enough.

Chris45 · 24 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
The daily didn't represent my perception enough.

The weekly outranks the daily on the big picture.

gfresh · 26 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting juncture... if XAO can break 3950 the bear case is looking shaky for now.. (although always possibility of 4060 double-top).

However, if we turn back down again, this could be the end of the first-half rally..

Garpal Gumnut · 26 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

One basic element of TA is timing.

Coming up to the end of June in a bear market with fundos topping and tailing their books is not the time to be waiting for a breakout upwards in the XAO in July.

Its Show Day on Monday in Townsville, so I won't be able to trade, I'll be at the Show, which may be safest place to be next week.

gg

nomore4s · 27 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

For those that use divergence in their trading - this chart might be of interest.

In yellow I have marked divergences on the the minor higher highs and as you can see they have played out quite well in the last few months but if you have a look at the white lines the major highs are not yet showing signs of divergence. The uptrend since March remains intact for the moment.
The red box is a support/resistance zone.

Can we push up through 4100 now? Will have to wait and see.

I'm still of the opinion that if we are to see the lows re-tested we will see some distribution first. My current opinion is that we won't see 3100 tested for a decent period of time but that could change of course.

Garpal Gumnut · 29 June 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't know about the XAO but the XJO chart on the side of the ASF main page looks very toppy for a days trading.

When is the end of the year? Parachutes anyone?

I'm in holiday mode, so will look at the final fallout after the Darwin Show.

gg

Sean K · 1 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Just polishing up the crystal ball and I see a another potential H&S forming up.

gfresh · 1 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Nice one.. further to your chart Kennas.. possible target on break of neckline of 3500?? Which would fit nicely with the support level.

MACD indicating weakness as well.

Naked shorts · 1 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Just polishing up the crystal ball and I see a another potential H&S forming up.

Dont know how you work without volume.

sammy84 · 1 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Head and Shoulders patterns can also act as a good continuation pattern to the upside. Could be bullish or bearish from here

MRC & Co · 1 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

sammy84 said:
Head and Shoulders patterns can also act as a good continuation pattern to the upside. Could be bullish or bearish from here

Yes, all we have done is put in another higher low, but also a lower high. Could go anywhere from here, not really in a buying or selling region. Except now is a good place to sell if you are looking for a H&S to play out, as the stop would be much tighter.

gfresh · 3 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Naked Shorts pointed out the volume indicators.. This is the SP500 but the volume seems quite textbook.. Looking very bearish after last night.

Garpal Gumnut · 3 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks all poster and Uncle Festivus.

The xao is as near you will get to a classical Head and Shoulders pattern.

I would guess on previous analysis that the xao will tank.

There is a small possibility that the right shoulder is an ascending triangle, and if it breaks out and retraces to 3950 and then takes off again I'd be bullish.

Sense over sentiment wins out though.

This is a very bearish pattern.

Sell.

gg

Gordon Gekko · 3 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

So what will be the trigger or black swan event that sends this sucker down in the final capitulation move?
Will California's (the 8th largest economy) attempts to remain solvent by issuing IOU's be the trigger?
Will it come from Europe, Ireland? etc.
Swine flu, Iran, North Korea?
Massive debt and rising unemployment worldwide? (OECD)
Is this just market noise to keep the suckers on the sidelines while the smart money accumulates?
Some how I don't think so but whatever it is none of us will see it coming.

But one thing is for sure, we are living in interesting times and some will make a killing and some will probably throw themselves out of windows.

Hope we can all prosper and help each other cause I don't think we have scene anything yet

Best Of Luck

G

Garpal Gumnut · 3 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Gordon Gekko said:
So what will be the trigger or black swan event that sends this sucker down in the final capitulation move?
Will California's (the 8th largest economy) attempts to remain solvent by issuing IOU's be the trigger?
Will it come from Europe, Ireland? etc.
Swine flu, Iran, North Korea?
Massive debt and rising unemployment worldwide? (OECD)
Is this just market noise to keep the suckers on the sidelines while the smart money accumulates?
Some how I don't think so but whatever it is none of us will see it coming.

But one thing is for sure, we are living in interesting times and some will make a killing and some will probably throw themselves out of windows.

Hope we can all prosper and help each other cause I don't think we have scene anything yet

Best Of Luck

G

Agree mate

When I was in Kazakhstan the only news we got was Russian. Oil etc etc.

There are huge dangers out there, and the future is in the lap of the gods.

But the charts never lie.

I think most funnymentalists would be on Serverqual which is the new Prozac I've been told.

How can any funnymentalist exist with so much conflicting data of such dubious quality.

Watch yer charts mates.

gg

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