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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Oh Yogi.

Hmm volume has increased NOT demand.
Volume has increased due to selling into muffins.

Rest is rubbish.

Nothing has changed from my original analysis.
Post #6590
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Hey Buddy,
You can disagree as much as you like, but the proof is in the pudding.

Look out 4101 - 4116 before the end of August.

It takes guts but sometimes you just have to trade it.

Happy Trading
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Private Trader said:
Hey Buddy,
You can disagree as much as you like, but the proof is in the pudding.

Look out 4101 - 4116 before the end of August.

It takes guts but sometimes you just have to trade it.

Happy Trading
Click to expand...

You call that "Proof?"

Oh I see thats why it takes "guts" to trade it.
So your long---Enjoy.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.

Both periods went virtually vertical before the crashes (bubbles growing & bubbles bursting -I have these periods showing up quite clearly on other charts and can post them if anyone is interested). Both periods also suffered around a 50% decline (so far for current crash).

Anyway I'd thought I'd look at some chart patterns from 1987 to see if I could get any idea of what patterns to look for and maybe be able to trade. I was actually quite surprised to see the similarities presented in the charts(weekly) so far. While not identical they are close enough for me to be keeping a closer eye on to see how it plays out from here - remember don't be a dick for a tick;).

Disclaimer: This is a look at possibilities based purely on chart patterns and is more for general interest (I found it interesting at least) and discussion then anything else. I'm not comparing fundamentals or economic climates between these eras and tbh have no interest in discussing them.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Why people think rising volume is rising demand is beyond me :confused: Obviously there is a buyer for every seller.

Rising Volume is rising activity.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Breaking 3800 might be the catalyst, but there's plenty of support around 3700-50 ish. Interesting juncture.
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Bounced off that line (so far) but it could be just a pause. Nice pause though. Good to see buyers coming in. Maybe this earnings season is more than factored in and it'll surprise to the upside. Or not...H&S still well in play.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

beamstas said:
Why people think rising volume is rising demand is beyond me :confused: Obviously there is a buyer for every seller.

Rising Volume is rising activity.
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And rising activity is normally indicative of increased participation in the market, which normally means increased buying demand. I'm not saying that you want ultra high voilumes either. But up moves are not too convincing when everyone is standing on the sidelines.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sammy84 said:
And rising activity is normally indicative of increased participation in the market, which normally means increased buying demand. I'm not saying that you want ultra high volumes either. But up moves are not too convincing when everyone is standing on the sidelines.
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Depends where it is in the move. A low volume rally is a common occurrence after falls because there is no more sellers. That's very convincing.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sammy84 said:
And rising activity is normally indicative of increased participation in the market, which normally means increased buying demand. I'm not saying that you want ultra high voilumes either. But up moves are not too convincing when everyone is standing on the sidelines.
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You are forgetting the other side again.
"Which normally means increased buying and increased selling" - fixed.

Volume alone means nothing , you really need to look at the range.

Rising volume can be both bearish and bullish, the same as falling volume.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Depends where it is in the move. A low volume rally is a common occurrence after falls because there is no more sellers. That's very convincing.
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I prefer low volume rallies once the trend has changed direction/resistance being broken. For the initial move I prefer some volume confirmation that buying pressure has caused this move, and that there are now locked in buyers with this move. Otherwise an up move on low volume would require a greater study into the price/volume action preceding the move to see if the sellers are really gone, which is just another thing to get wrong :p:

Brad I know the concept that for every buyer their has to be a seller. And obviously you have to look at the days price action to put the volume in perspective, that goes without saying.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

beamstas said:
Volume alone means nothing , you really need to look at the range.
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sammy84 said:
obviously you have to look at the days price action to put the volume in perspective, that goes without saying.
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if i may be a little metaphoric ---

the range is the size of the football field u r playing on --

at certain times during the game (price level) --

the forwards are trying to beat the cr@p out of each other (volume)

thats the time to get the binoculars out ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.

Both periods went virtually vertical before the crashes (bubbles growing & bubbles bursting -I have these periods showing up quite clearly on other charts and can post them if anyone is interested). Both periods also suffered around a 50% decline (so far for current crash).

Anyway I'd thought I'd look at some chart patterns from 1987 to see if I could get any idea of what patterns to look for and maybe be able to trade. I was actually quite surprised to see the similarities presented in the charts(weekly) so far. While not identical they are close enough for me to be keeping a closer eye on to see how it plays out from here - remember don't be a dick for a tick;).

Disclaimer: This is a look at possibilities based purely on chart patterns and is more for general interest (I found it interesting at least) and discussion then anything else. I'm not comparing fundamentals or economic climates between these eras and tbh have no interest in discussing them.
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Fair enough.... But what about time frames? Must say with reference to your charts above, I'm having a little trouble how a chart pattern spanning 87, 88, 89 and 90 can be re-produced again now all in a single year! Is it to have any meaning?

This is what I've been looking at (since you brought it up) "87 vs 08". Take a look at the same periods in the same time frames. (you did suggest weekly?)Both hit in the month of October. Both falls were approx 50%, yes. With the second lows (3 months later) late Feb88 & early March09. From there "both" rebounded, some 32 percent, then side ways / dropped back a little over a couple of months.... very similar. So after the "dropped back a little" the low in 88 was in June then the market rallied a further 15% in a month!

Will we now see a 15% rise in July or there abouts?

ps: Also noticed back in 87 we had more of our own market. We didn't follow America day in and Day out!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MR. I'm not expecting the full pattern to play out this year, if it does play out like that it will be over a similar period of 3-5 years. This was basically a longer term look at what might play out in the markets over the next few years - sideways between maybe a 1000-1500 point range, but if broken down into smaller time frames (1-2 year periods) you can see you end up with smaller bull & bear trends within that range. Sometimes it pays to keep the longer term trends & patterns in mind.

While I agree alot has changed in the markets since 1987, the similar patterns to me are very telling. A lot of T/A is based around the psychology of the market participants and the similarities between these patterns (so far) shows that the 'panic' of a bubble bursting after the 'euphoria' of an over inflated bubble would appear to be much the same today as it was back then. While it remains to be seen whether this 'recovery' continues to play out as it did back in 1987, it is worth taking note of because it could provide opportunities for us traders/investors.

As for the question about July, we will have to wait and see;).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This range looks important in the short term. Breaking down looks very bearish, where breaking up puts me in a quandary. The market (and you EW fanatics) is supposed to be giving me a chance to invest around the 3000 mark. Maybe that chance has gone. And maybe not. (That's the EW stance too I feel)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
This range looks important in the short term. Breaking down looks very bearish, where breaking up puts me in a quandary. The market (and you EW fanatics) is supposed to be giving me a chance to invest around the 3000 mark. Maybe that chance has gone. And maybe not. (That's the EW stance too I feel)
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i think one cannot exclude the possibility of 2500 until we see how october/november plays out. on a smaller time frame, the next two weeks are also very important. we fall here, and there will be a lot of pressure to bring S&P500 to 770, which is an easy break to 750. If we are around 750-800 by the end of the quarter, you can bet your last dollar we will retest 666 in late october/november. the question i ask is how much support will that scenario create. of course if we hold on, and break 950 and move towards 1000 and beyond, one could expect no resistance until 4400 on our market, and that will mean that we could really be recovering. i see the first scenario more likely.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

i think one cannot exclude the possibility of 2500 ?

In order for the market to drop that level there would have to be something alot more serious than whats already unfolded. What would the condition of the average super fund or alot of other assets be in if that were the case? You would be talking of a depression not a recession. I'm not a chartist or an economist but i think your 2500 is way off the money.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Most firms seem to be outperforming.

Bank of America and Citi should be the most important in regards to how the Commercial finance world is fairing.

As of yesterday just after 4pm I turned bullish again.

Chop chop.
 
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