XAO Technical Analysis

[Largesse]

Re: XAO Analysis

what news just hit the american markets? 2am Melbourne time

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is no wonder EW'ers have stopped posting with the constant inuendo's going on.

This was a genuine question Porper. Geesh

Seems asking an EW question here is like lighting a stick of dynamite.

 

[Naked shorts]

Re: XAO Analysis

what news just hit the american markets? 2am Melbourne time

I had a look, seems like nothing came out around that time, maybe a stop loss run? Thats the time when liquidity drops off a bit because its the end of the working day for people in the UK.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Having a nice healthy sell off today. We need more of these on a smaller scale, more often. Just hate the constant run one way or the other. Hopefully we get to shake the tree and lose some pedestrains. All this straight up and down stuff is just crap.

I'm looking to an overlapping criss crossy type of movement down into the green circle and some stabilisation for this to be a friendly correction. Hopefully not just massive red candles one after the other...eeeek.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

 

[explod]

Re: XAO Analysis

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

Whew and Amen to that. And the Dow will plummet to 1500 and like wonderful sheep we will follow right behind, fundamentals or not. But fundamentals will rule the day at the end of it. Till we all learn to pay our way in true value behind our toil, we will not climb back out of it.

Well said Garpal

 

[saiter]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

Nice and simple count. I agree with it.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

Huh? Like where?

 

[GumbyLearner]

Re: XAO Analysis

Targeted how so?

Are you into conspiracy theories?

 

[Cartman]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

no it hasnt GG ----- but it can be arranged :

best get back to my cave methinks :aliena:

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Arriving at a make or break point imo.

If this support level holds above the 200d ma, then the bear bounce still has some legs. Massive divergence on the MACD and more than obviously trending lower. Yes, post price movement, but look bloody ugly. A very slightly lower high adding to the bearish view. Could the 200d ma provide some support to the 3700 ish support line?

Obviously a non paid for chart (sorry Beamstas), so someone elses paid for one might look different.

 

[Nero64]

Re: XAO Analysis

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

Yes charts don't lie (unless you have the wrong data feed) but humans beliefs and forecasting can be taken as lies.

On a more encouraging note. If what you say is true it will give me a chance to start saving up for the big low. I wonder if they will start closing markets if we get that low.

 

[gfresh]

Re: XAO Analysis

It took 18 months to fall from ~6800 to ~3100 or around 55%

Now we're going to fall from 4000 to 2400 (-40%) in 6 months?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I feel he's pretty close.
But wouldnt rule out a lower low yet.

Other than that-------

Pretty well to "The Book"
But you've got to be impressed with this!

 

[drsmith]

Re: XAO Analysis

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

With regard to the scaling on that chart, should it be linear (as it is) or non-linear in the form of equal distances in the vertical scale between 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000 etc ?

This would obviously impact on how far your analysis suggests the market would fall. 1800 points is about 26% of 7000. A 26% fall from around 4000 would give a target just below 3000.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

no it hasnt GG ----- but it can be arranged :


best get back to my cave methinks :aliena:

Us EW believers are in to conspiracy, if it doesn't exist we will invent it !

gg

Arriving at a make or break point imo.

If this support level holds above the 200d ma, then the bear bounce still has some legs. Massive divergence on the MACD and more than obviously trending lower. Yes, post price movement, but look bloody ugly. A very slightly lower high adding to the bearish view. Could the 200d ma provide some support to the 3700 ish support line?

Obviously a non paid for chart (sorry Beamstas), so someone elses paid for one might look different.

Hope over reality mate see attached chart

Yes charts don't lie (unless you have the wrong data feed) but humans beliefs and forecasting can be taken as lies.

On a more encouraging note. If what you say is true it will give me a chance to start saving up for the big low. I wonder if they will start closing markets if we get that low.

Cash is king, always will be, gives you more leverage.

gg

It took 18 months to fall from ~6800 to ~3100 or around 55%

Now we're going to fall from 4000 to 2400 (-40%) in 6 months?

So!

With regard to the scaling on that chart, should it be linear (as it is) or non-linear in the form of equal distances in the vertical scale between 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000 etc ?

This would obviously impact on how far your analysis suggests the market would fall. 1800 points is about 26% of 7000. A 26% fall from around 4000 would give a target just below 3000.

The old Fibmeister always went on linear data. Linear.

Its falling

A chart

 

[drsmith]

Re: XAO Analysis

The old Fibmeister always went on linear data. Linear.

Its falling

A chart

Linear is a reasonable approximation for movements which are small relative to the index/individual price value but for movements which represent a larger portion of the index value ??

Consider what would happen under your scenario if the first drop was, say 30% of it's peak value and the second was, say 50%.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

Linear is a reasonable approximation for movements which are small relative to the index/individual price value but for movements which represent a larger portion of the index value ??

Consider what would happen under your scenario if the first drop was, say 30% of it's peak value and the second was, say 50%.

You and I know that, but the average punter in any market, tomatoes, sugar, oil goes on the linear data.

I go to my local veg/ vegan.crazies market on sunadays whenever I find it difficult to work out charts. I watch the ebb and flow of prices.

It is linear.

Folk trade linear.

gg

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

You and I know that, but the average punter in any market, tomatoes, sugar, oil goes on the linear data.

I go to my local veg/ vegan.crazies market on sunadays whenever I find it difficult to work out charts. I watch the ebb and flow of prices.

It is linear.

Folk trade linear.

gg

But they don't account for a large slice of the mkt do they? Funds and larger guys with better knowledge and access would be using semi-log charts.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

But they don't account for a large slice of the mkt do they? Funds and larger guys with better knowledge and access would be using semi-log charts.

Financial markets are your vegan.crazies veggie markets writ large. Its all buying and selling. Tomatoes and beans, BHP and RIO.

gg