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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.

The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)

The ASX.

Due to the sp500 lead... I belive today will be the last leg up before a trun in trend comes in and selling picks up. I will ne be looking to sell the ASX200 and SP500 tonight.
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If it falls over from here it means the top was actually a week or so ago, wasn't it?

So, the cycle bands will be proven incorrect?

Correct me if I'm wrong.

The potential fallover at 3750 was pretty easy from basic S&R wasn't it?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
If it falls over from here it means the top was actually a week or so ago, wasn't it?

So, the cycle bands will be proven incorrect?

Correct me if I'm wrong.

The potential fallover at 3750 was pretty easy from basic S&R wasn't it?
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Kennas, this anit time cycle points mate. They're bands set on the price that work off a dominate cycle. They show extrems in the price. this is theory / systems devaloped by Hurst.

This has been adapted by Wavepicker in his own way to make this system with some touches from myself.

At times the bands fail at times they work what system doesn't, it's what you average at weeks end that matters! At times the pa shows the trade at times you will never see it.

This is not about being spot on to the day it's about waiting for the price to reach an extrem and give an entry. combined strict money managment and entry criteria we have the system.

I am up on my short and would not call anything failed yet

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
Kennas, this anit time cycle points mate. They're bands set on the price that work off a dominate cycle. They show extrems in the price. this is theory / systems devaloped by Hurst.
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Maybe you could show/explain what this is then to help us out?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Maybe you could show/explain what this is then to help us out?
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as it's Wavepickers, what i can explain and show will be limited but I will post trades at point of taking with charts. If anyone wants me to prove trades I can do that aswell. This is still in a testing phase so I am not taking massive trades.

Members have to understand this is four years of his work and delavopment. The exact method won't be shared. As that would be like me asking Norm to give me a copy of his EA.....

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
what i can explain and show will be limited but I will post trades at point of taking with charts. If anyone wants me to prove trades I can do that aswell.
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No requirement to prove trades if they're real time.

We have your first one, based on this system we are not privy to.

>Apocalypto< said:
update.

short SPX500 (CFD) ent 857.5 stop 870.1 limit 830.5

Good trading
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This probably is not the right thread for this though. This is supposed to be regarding XAO analysis, not devoted to the theories of Machi, Wavepicker, Kinezikens, Libba, Skyhawk, or Stoner.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
No requirement to prove trades if they're real time.

We have your first one, based on this system we are not privy to.



This probably is not the right thread for this though. This is supposed to be regarding XAO analysis, not devoted to the theories of Machi, Wavepicker, Kinezikens, Libba, Skyhawk, or Stoner.
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Kennas,

The s&p500 has a link to the xao so the information about it weakening is relevant to this thread. I have explained the method and I have explained my trade.

So I think this post has the right to stay on the xao board as if the sp500 falls then there is a chance that could influence the Australian market tomorrow.

This is why i posted it in this thread.

I you disagree with the method then that’s your opinion and go for it. You asked the questions and I have answered you.

I posting information on the sp500 and xjo has nothing to do with wavepicker the person. Its a coincidence it's his method that has produced the market direction idea.

Good trading no matter how you do it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
I have explained the method and I have explained my trade.
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No you haven't. You said this:

>Apocalypto< said:
Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.

The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)
Click to expand...
So, what are these cycle bands?

It's really pointless to mention this if you can't explain it.

Really, I'm not trying to pick a fight, or be negative towards this system, but all ANYONE here should expect is some analysis and justification behind a trading decision.

Or, maybe I missed the explanation amongst the other posts? Apologies if I did.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.

The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)

The ASX.

Due to the sp500 lead... I belive today will be the last leg up before a turn in trend comes in and selling picks up. I will ne be looking to sell the ASX200 and SP500 tonight.

Cheers,

Based on the spi open market may not complete a move up today... look to short the sp500 only
Click to expand...

The overbought means the price extrem. since it is at a over bought extrem I am sort the SP500

What r the cycle bands? A. They're bands set on the price that work off a dominate cycle. They show extrems in the price. this is theory / systems devaloped by Hurst. high overbought extrem sell signal. low over sold extrem buy signal.

watch the spi futures things are coming off!

I will post a chart later

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Everyones been expecting a decent break in this bullish run and we thought around the 3750 resistance would be it, but it's been pretty resiliant. I was certainly expecting a correction back to at least the 3400/500 support zone. But, it's holding up and respecting a small uptrend line which is almost sort of forming an ascending triangle. But there could be a tiny H&S in there as well. lol With 'sell in May, and go away' fast approaching, odds still must be on a breakdown.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Yea, agreed Kennas.
The ES is walking its lower trendline, trying to cross it, and the bulls seem to be weakening.
A decent battle between bulls and bears though, standing only 10 ES points apart.
Could be a decent trendline break if it happens soon.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

There are so many factors pointing to a downward leg, but none materialising in the Australian markets. Other markets seem to have started their leg down... I closed all my long positions yesterday and opened a smallish short on XJO using CFDs.

Watching the market spike this morning was pretty nerve wracking - especially after the late recovery yesterday. I've set my stop loss at 3800, (must close above and confirm direction the following day), but that's still a bigger loss than I really should have set.

I'm personally looking at Chalkin money flow indicators for my primary analysis, combined with analyst expectations. Not very systematic, I know, but it seems to work fairly well on large indices.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

clayton4115 said:
i am still bearish on the xao, a breakout over 3800 would indicate another considerable leg up though!
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That is going to happen at some stage clayton. Just a question of when. A short pause and we break up, or way back down and sideways for some time? Each time we prop up against that level and fail the better the break up will be. Should be a great trading opportunity.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
That is going to happen at some stage clayton. Just a question of when. A short pause and we break up, or way back down and sideways for some time? Each time we prop up against that level and fail the better the break up will be. Should be a great trading opportunity.
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Yes. Who isn't waiting for a pull back - either to cover their shorts or to jump on.

I'm voting for stronger for longer.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

yes this bear rally has been quite resilient, maybe its overdue? i dunno, however if we break up 3800 and close above 3800 we could see 4000+ then!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My understanding that the magic number for the ASX200 was 3780.
I think it was the January high close.
Which we almost hit today, from there it went straight down. Im sure that including today, it is the third time in the last week or so that the ASX has failed to break 3780.
 
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