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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

personally think its time to get those shorts on ........

and is trading accordingly

could always be wrong and have to use that magic "save our cash "button
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Looks like the banks run finally came to a screaming halt today. I think we'll see a retest of 3500 in the next few days, will be interesting to see if there is any sort of support there.

Chart marked up with some possiblities.

I'm probably favouring #2 at this stage, a pullback just far enough to shake out some sellers then up towards 4300, but the market will do what it wants.
Click to expand...

All three possibilities still in play at this stage as well as the H&S pattern.

The next leg down will give alot of clues to how we will progress from here - ie bear market rally or the first leg up of an extended rally or maybe just sideways between 3200 & 3800.

To the current chart. Some very strong bearish divergence now with 3 attempts to go higher through resistance. It would take a huge couple of days in the US to push us any higher in the immediate future imo.

I would like to see support hold at 3500 but I don't think it will, I think we will probe under that to shake a few people out and then a retest of 3800 but the market will do what the market wants.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
...
3700-3750 looks important here. There should be some decent consolidation soon you'd expect, and about here for mine. If not here, then :confused:
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If these two (XJO and DJI) can hang in there now then we may have seen the bottom.
The US reporting season may change all of that but at the moment this looks to me like it has the potential to be positive.

(click to enlarge)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

General concensis here is people are just buying in for the ride.
I think as soon as there's sign it's stopped rising for now it'll shoot straight back down to 3400.

It's probable we've already seen the bottom but this rally is unsustainable at this stage IMO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Analysis still remains the same.
This is a wave 4 in a 5 wave up move by the looks.
Still some more to come off before moving on for a short while.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Here's the truth, the recession hasn't really hit yet but is about to so fasten your seat belts.

Wall St going 'back to reality' as recession strikes
By North America correspondent Michael Rowland for AM

Posted 5 hours 45 minutes ago
Updated 5 hours 38 minutes ago

Confidence on Wall Street has taken a battering after catastrophic losses.

Wall St woes continue (AM) Related Story: US stocks up despite disappointing data Wall Street's six-week winning streak may be over as the United States braces itself for the worst global recession since World War II.
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/24/2551380.htm
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MrBurns said:
Here's the truth, the recession hasn't really hit yet but is about to so fasten your seat belts.
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Of course it hasn't really hit in Australia except for a few job losses and forward bookings lost, but it will. We all know this. Cripes, even the taxi drivers know this now.

Thus, the markets have counted this in.

Check charts of all income stocks on the ASX with price earnings ratios way under 14. The recession/depression is mostly factored in.

It could get worse, but lets not assume that it hasn't been factored in to current share prices, and thus create buying opportunities for those dedicated to the investment game.

Remember, the market over and under shoots.

Trading is about making money off the price movement of stocks (etc), not the overall state of the economy.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What the article is saying is that the US hasn't been hit by the full force of the downturn yet, so as bad as it is there now it will get a lot worse and we follow them so it's not looking good.

You know the share market better then I but I still think there is a huge crunch yet to come.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MrBurns said:
What the article is saying is that the US hasn't been hit by the full force of the downturn yet, so as bad as it is there now it will get a lot worse and we follow them so it's not looking good.

You know the share market better then I but I still think there is a huge crunch yet to come.
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Yes, but Burns - we all have access to this article, we all have access to most of the information out there; that's the whole point, and reason that markets are forward thinking.

Here's an example of what happens with markets on a whole, ahem. Company XYZ mines copper, copper all of a sudden falls drastically; thus people sell on this information, with the expectation of further falls, and for company profits to be down 50%.

Reporting day comes, profits are only down 30%, a positive surprise - hence why "less bad" news, is good news, because the price had reflected more dire results!

Why do you think share prices are down 50%? People don't sell on the on-the-day implications of yesterdays bad news, they sell on what they perceive to be the future impact of that news.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Yes, but Burns - we all have access to this article, we all have access to most of the information out there; that's the whole point, and reason that markets are forward thinking.

Here's an example of what happens with markets on a whole, ahem. Company XYZ mines copper, copper all of a sudden falls drastically; thus people sell on this information, with the expectation of further falls, and for company profits to be down 50%.

Reporting day comes, profits are only down 30%, a positive surprise - hence why "less bad" news, is good news, because the price had reflected more dire results!

Why do you think share prices are down 50%? People don't sell on the on-the-day implications of yesterdays bad news, they sell on what they perceive to be the future impact of that news.
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Ok understood and well put Nyden. I have a more simplistic approach and still think that the news yet to come will be very bad, worse than people expect.

I almost always go on gut feel for these things.

But yes what you say is very well put and explains how the markets work very clearly thanks for that :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

would require bravery to hold over the weekend in the middle of earnings season. also bank stress test results about to be realeased?

:(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Largesse said:
i'm too young to be wise
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lol --- i think that may be a wise move !! :D (ie not to hold shorts for too long )

i reckon the "deep pockets" will squeeze every last drop out of this over the next week/weeks (who knows) b4 it has another serious dig lower ----- no T/A or charts involved in that opinion :rolleyes: ---- but it seems that when all the "average" punters are looking to short (and that is the vibe on the street) ---- it's time to look for the final spike high !! ----

the deep pockets have to unload on somebody b4 any capitulation !! ----- id reckon some ranging/volatility b4 any serious move to the downside ---- could be totally wrong though -----
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting thoughts Cartman, thx.

I thought the false break through previous Jan highs was that final spike, but you may be right, we could perhaps get another one.

Motorway put it best, first they try to scare you out, then they try to bore you out!

When I finally give up on running some large short positions, it will tank, completely out of the blue, based on absolutely nothing, no news, no big reason, it just will.

Have to be on the ball or by the time you notice it, that juicy entry will be missed.

:2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.

The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)

The ASX.

Due to the sp500 lead... I belive today will be the last leg up before a trun in trend comes in and selling picks up. I will ne be looking to sell the ASX200 and SP500 tonight.

Cheers,

Based on the spi open market may not complete a move up today... look to short the sp500 only
 
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