XAO Technical Analysis

chops_a_must · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
I never thought a year ago we would get this low, so I wouldn't be surprised. I'm just shocked at how our market has managed to persist in going down despite the Dow being up, this has happened on numerous occasions lately. I believe last Thursday the Dow was up some 550 or 6% and our market could only maintain a 1.5% gain, then when the Dow lost 300 or roughly 3% the next night we lost all of those previous gains, then some.

Maybe this is that 'unrelenting selling' some people have been talking about.

You could look at it this way. Why on Earth would you want to put money into Australia?

Before the mining and debt boom, structurally, our economy was rat****. And apart from mining and energy, it still is isn't it?

What has actually changed in that period? Did our government that was in power over that time reinvest the money to correct those long term structural problems, or did they actually, in real terms, reduce the investment into the sectors (education especially) that would free us from this old world economy problem?

What do we honestly offer apart from our dirt?

So why should we be holding onto our gains when the US hasn't, in that same period?

explod · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
Maybe this is that 'unrelenting selling' some people have been talking about.

Blame it on the bottom pickers. They think they got it then the sellers that were bottom the day before sell and drive it down, so the next day todays bottom sellers hit thier stops and sell to tomorrows bottom pickers and so on. Are ya with me.

Of course what we want is some good old consolidation over a period of 6 months. What we are getting is an erratic downtrend that is scaring the bejesus out of everyone. That's the technical.

Fundamentally

there is no good news, its all bad and sounding worse each day. I'm not qualified to give advice but if I were I'd tell averyone I know to get the hell out of it till it looks like going up strong and that could be years away.

Just MVHO as always

skyQuake · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, this unrelenting selling has had a few good drivers in the last few days.

1. New lows on the XJO cash close last thurs made by some considerate futures selling. That made sure the funds would bail out/stop buying, and dump any recently accumulations...

2. Traders pre-empting the start of the short selling ban...

--------------
Think we should see some real buying soon. We came within 10points of the 50% retracement on the XJO, and pretty much bounced off the prv highs from ages back. Maybe a few hundred points in this leg up, then reassess. Doubt the lows can be formed so easily.

Garpal Gumnut · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Blame it on the bottom pickers. They think they got it then the sellers that were bottom the day before sell and drive it down, so the next day todays bottom sellers hit thier stops and sell to tomorrows bottom pickers and so on. Are ya with me.

Of course what we want is some good old consolidation over a period of 6 months. What we are getting is an erratic downtrend that is scaring the bejesus out of everyone. That's the technical.

Fundamentally

there is no good news, its all bad and sounding worse each day. I'm not qualified to give advice but if I were I'd tell averyone I know to get the hell out of it till it looks like going up strong and that could be years away.

Just MVHO as always

Very very wise advice explod.

We need a trading range/consolidation for 6 to 24 mo before I would be game to call a halt to this bear market, then a nice breakout to the upside with a retracement to the top of the range to finish it off before heading north again.

Fundamentally "I couldn't give a damn" as Bogie said.

gg

nick2fish · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
What do we honestly offer apart from our dirt?

So why should we be holding onto our gains when the US hasn't, in that same period?

Your kidding aren't you

What have we got apart from resources, technology, agriculture.

A developed exporting nation is what you have Chops and our once prosperous customer base is all f**ked up cause of those greedy smartarse Wall Street Geeks.

What we have is a banking system largely untouched by sub prime compared with other developed nations

What we have here is a much smarter bunch of investors than those dope heads on Wall Street, and so that is why we can;t match the Dow, not because this countries fundamentals are kaput.

What has America got now ....2/10s of F**k all
Cheers and thanks for winding me up...keeps the blood flowing

Wysiwyg · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Very very wise advice explod.

We need a trading range/consolidation for 6 to 24 mo before I would be game to call a halt to this bear market, then a nice breakout to the upside with a retracement to the top of the range to finish it off before heading north again.

Fundamentally "I couldn't give a damn" as Bogie said.

gg

Frankly, my dear, I don`t give a damn. Clark Gable ... Gone with the Wind.

Garpal Gumnut · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
Frankly, my dear, I don`t give a damn. Clark Gable ... Gone with the Wind.

So what did Bogie say in Casablanca??

Mea culpa.

gg

MrBurns · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
So what did Bogie say in Casablanca??

Mea culpa.

gg

Here's lookin' at you kid -

Indie · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm pretty sure there will be even more bad news over the next 12 months than there has been up to now. I wouldn't have picked 3500 by this time although I guessed 2500 as a bottom when this started. The pace of the fall has been surprising.

Since housing hasn't officially tanked yet and some are still dreaming of government bailouts I'd have to say we will move another 30-50% down from where we are now before we have a chance of bottoming. I agree with Explod that negative psychology has to be played right out now that it has set in. I think we won't see a bottom for at least 12 months.

nunthewiser · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

data out tonight in the US: MBA Purchase Applications (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 19 Consumer Price Index (Oct , 2008) Nov 19 Housing Starts (Oct , 2008) Nov 19 EIA Petroleum Status Report (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 19 FOMC Minutes (Oct , 2008)

Beej · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MrBurns said:
Here's lookin' at you kid -

Plus "Play it again, Sam"

Beej

Sunder · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Beej said:
Plus "Play it again, Sam"

Beej

According to 20 to 1, the most misquoted movie phrase.

Apparently it's "Play it once, Sam, for old time's sake".

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=LNXB3jfFvJo

GreatPig · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

"Play it again Sam" was the name of a movie by Woody Allen, based around Bogie and Casablanca.

GP

chops_a_must · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nick2fish said:
Your kidding aren't you

What have we got apart from resources, technology, agriculture.

A developed exporting nation is what you have Chops and our once prosperous customer base is all f**ked up cause of those greedy smartarse Wall Street Geeks.

What we have is a banking system largely untouched by sub prime compared with other developed nations

What we have here is a much smarter bunch of investors than those dope heads on Wall Street, and so that is why we can;t match the Dow, not because this countries fundamentals are kaput.

What has America got now ....2/10s of F**k all
Cheers and thanks for winding me up...keeps the blood flowing

Lol.

A developed exporting nation that can't crack a trade surplus in the country's greatest boom of all time?

We have no (virtually no) technology base.

And we can't match the Dow because we can't generate our own income to match the outflows of foreign capital. We are a debtor nation at a time we should be exactly the opposite.

brty · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

"of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world she walks into mine"

OzWaveGuy · 19 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Lol.

A developed exporting nation that can't crack a trade surplus in the country's greatest boom of all time?

We have no (virtually no) technology base.

And we can't match the Dow because we can't generate our own income to match the outflows of foreign capital. We are a debtor nation at a time we should be exactly the opposite.

Interesting isn't it. With our skew to Finance and Mining - both of which will suffer deeply under a global contraction. Could mean a lot of problems here should the worst happen.

brty · 20 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Ilsa, "play it once, Sam, for old time's sake".

later
... Rick "you played it for her and you can play it for me"
....Sam "I don't think I can remember it"
....Rick " If she can stand it, I can. Play it!"

brty

nick2fish · 20 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Lil.

A developed exporting nation that can't crack a trade surplus in the country's greatest boom of all time?

We have no (virtually no) technology base.

And we can't match the Dow because we can't generate our own income to match the outflows of foreign capital. We are a debtor nation at a time we should be exactly the opposite.

The wheel will turn chops , stay tuned

The bubble deflates ...overcontraction, then the next bubble begins

Till then sit tight and listen to Ice House

"Great Southern Land"

No tech base cause we have unsupportive govts so our tech advances get shipped overseas for development.

Its going to be tough without strong customer demand for our products, but we do have a budget surplus and a growing world population will see our commodity strengths return
As for XOA down down to 3200 and lower probably

Cheers

chops_a_must · 20 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nick2fish said:
The wheel will turn chops , stay tuned

The bubble deflates ...overcontraction, then the next bubble begins

Till then sit tight and listen to Ice House

"Great Southern Land"

I'd rather listen to the Oils' "Dreamworld".

But what have we got from this current bubble? Absolutely jack, which is my point.

nick2fish said:
No tech base cause we have unsupportive govts so our tech advances get shipped overseas for development.

Thanks for proving my point after disagreeing.

But also because the tertiary system is so under funded, you would be nuts if you were talented and had a good idea that needed long term work, to stay here.

nick2fish said:
Its going to be tough without strong customer demand for our products, but we do have a budget surplus and a growing world population will see our commodity strengths return

Lol.

I doubt we will get another commodities boom like this for another 30 years or so, but energy is yet to have its day in the sun.

mayk · 20 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Major lows achieved during last night trading in New York. Will be a complete blood bath on ASX. I am guessing today might be the capitulation we were waiting for. We might see 3100-3200 today.

Watch out tall buildings

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