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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Sounds like I might be out-gunned on tomorrow's XAO prediction. The very short term wave count is calling for an imminent bounce or maybe one more minor low before the retracement starts. This would complete wave 1 down, and wave 2 should retrace back up to 3800 or slightly higher, before the downtrend resumes.

However, there seems to be a distinct lack of price support at the current levels except:

1) on the linear chart we have retraced almost exactly 76.8% of the leg up from the March 2003 lows, and
2) We are in the vicinity of a long term trend line from the early 1990s

So perhaps a little sideways action could eventuate.
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:D i think you covered all 3 scenarious there OZwaveguy :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
At the current juncture the rules indicate "something will happen" :cool:

Of course a small bounce would do nicely as well.
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Yep and my rules dictate .."when in doubt stay out"

got no signals or probabilities in any direction for tommorow for me , happy to watch
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
Yep and my rules dictate .."when in doubt stay out"
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Nah, go with the rule from my motocross days... "when in doubt go flat out"

Perhaps a more appropriate comment from those days would be... "when the green flag drops the bull$hit stops"

My green flag is still around the 3200 area !
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My green flag is still around the 3200 area !
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Been touted for months.
Thats where I'll be looking as well.
Better stop their or Waves will look like a genuis at 1500!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Been touted for months.
Thats where I'll be looking as well.
Better stop their or Waves will look like a genuis at 1500!
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Nah, there's going to be a reasonable bounce coming (as many suggest) and several larger ones down the track - 1500 is way off, plenty up/down opps between now and then :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like a bounce off 3530 area (APP of 1.272), next area is around 3320 perhaps after a little sucker run up.

My :2twocents

.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Based on the market action over the last 2 days, 3350 is an approx downside target that could have some significance, assuming:

1) a small wave 4 bounce to around 3600 occurs shortly
2) wave 5 will = wave 1 (about 250 points)
3) therefore end of wave 5 = approx 3350 (or wave 5 target = 61% of wave 1 = approx 3448)

chart --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=363371&postcount=157

As the count unfolds a more accurate assessment should come to hand
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think we just hit a short term bottom, spi 3500.

Over the next few days heading back up for a while.

Gutsy call I know.

We'll see.

:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

just an observation and i probably am missing something, but seeing as our xoa closely mirrors the usa dow would analysis of the dow take precedence as to what may happen here, as it seems to trigger events in our own market

just trying to understand this aspect of the markets
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I've been doing this for the past fortnight and it seems to be that the XAO will always follow the DJIA.
However, considering that the DJIA has ~600 points to lose before it bounces (IMO), then the XAO is going to be slightly past the support at 3450. Hopefully the DJIA will fall quickly so that the bounce can happen sometime this week :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jackson8 said:
just an observation and i probably am missing something, but seeing as our xoa closely mirrors the usa dow would analysis of the dow take precedence as to what may happen here, as it seems to trigger events in our own market

just trying to understand this aspect of the markets
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yes... same comment has been made over 1000x on this forum... as much as we want to think, the markets are far from being decoupled...

With PPI data out in the US tonight and with the forecast being a shocker.... DJ's heading lower if forecast comes in accurate. SPI futures are down about 50pts already and well below this psychological 3500...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi,

I've been doing this for the past fortnight and it seems to be that the XAO will always follow the DJIA.
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I'm gobsmacked at the experience behind that post.

Can I have your autograph.:rolleyes:

This is a capitulation phase when the falls of the market make no sense and seem never ending.

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
With PPI data out in the US tonight and with the forecast being a shocker.... DJ's heading lower if forecast comes in accurate. SPI futures are down about 50pts already and well below this psychological 3500...
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if the past weeks have taught me anything it's that the close is almost always the opposite to the future movement before open. maybe only during a market turmoil lol
 
Re: XAO Analysis

brty said:
Hi,



I'm gobsmacked at the experience behind that post.

Can I have your autograph.:rolleyes:

This is a capitulation phase when the falls of the market make no sense and seem never ending.

brty
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Why certainly! Saiter

Give a newbie a chance :p
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Transfield suspended almost a week now.

Could this figure from Comsec be correct?

"Debt/Equity ratio 95.8%"
 
Re: XAO Analysis

KFC soup said:
if the past weeks have taught me anything it's that the close is almost always the opposite to the future movement before open. maybe only during a market turmoil lol
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Ive notices that when black comes up on roulette a few times red usually comes in a few spins. Not sure I could make a living out of it though. ;)
 
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