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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Neither would I.

But something else pretty dramatic would have to get us down there I would reckon. And if it does, it's kind of irrelevant because we'll all be eating cat food anyway.
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Hmm lets try Obama assassinated and a race war in the US.

How about a few more fund collapses and a total run on Funds and banks world wide by panicked investors who are sure they will lose their entire savings.

How about a total collapse of the US/European monetary system.

Impossible?

Your also missing the point of the analysis.
All its doing is pointing to possibilities NOT certainties
 
Re: XAO Analysis

But are any of them priced into current sentiment tech?

What is the point of a possibility when it is based on something with a tiny probability (based on it's assumptions?). How would you trade that?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
As for the XAO and S&P500, and nothing has really changed on the analysis since the last posts - the market is still unfolding with more downside to come.
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Agreed, but the enclosed chart is nonsense. It relies on a bogus long term trend going back over 50 years. That trend was broken forever by the onset of inflation in the 1970s. The XAO is now scaled upwards and trended upwards by inflation and can never reach those low levels again. If you adjust the XAO for CPI or GDP you will find the trend bottom is now around 3500 or so.

Also, the crash on the DOW in 1929 has already been repeated on the NASDAQ in 2000 and the SSE this year, but the conditions do not exist for it to repeat on the DOW or XAO. There is not the steep prior rise to give room for that kind of fall this time, and the market structure is totally different.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
LOL dont write off cat food in troubled times either :) some mighty fine lookin varietys out there if worse comes to worse and ya cant afford cat food , theres always the cat
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LOL! Your a funny nun!

Cheers,


CanOz
 
Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes said:
Does anyone want to join me in a possible inverted Head and Shoulders formation for a rally up to 4800?? Come on...say you'll join me...we'll all hold hands and pretend everything is rosy ( because it'll take denial to get us there, and then we'll have room for some of the old ultra-violence once again).
Note some good divergence in the money flow during the H&S formation.
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That's how I'm trading it.

Two bob each way for now.
tech/a said:
Hmm lets try Obama assassinated and a race war in the US.

How about a few more fund collapses and a total run on Funds and banks world wide by panicked investors who are sure they will lose their entire savings.

How about a total collapse of the US/European monetary system.

Impossible?

Your also missing the point of the analysis.
All its doing is pointing to possibilities NOT certainties
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We've already had a run on funds of sorts.

I'd say your chances of trading on possibilities rather than probabilities is not good. Long side 4800, short side lows and then 3200 after. And worry about things when and if they then reach these levels.

And yeah... we'll all be eating cat food so who cares?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Neither would I.

But something else pretty dramatic would have to get us down there I would reckon. And if it does, it's kind of irrelevant because we'll all be eating cat food anyway.
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The two areas of support are the 2003 low of 2770 followed by 1987 at 1200. I reckon the music might stop at 2770 but wouldn't rule out 1200. What's going to lead XAO to either of these new depths? That's an easy question to answer, the financials. Australia is sitting in the mother of all housing bubbles and while house prices have gone a bit soft this year should they really tank due to a hike in unemployment then our banks, particularly CBA Australia's biggest home loan lender, which is seen as one of the safer banks may suddenly look very risky. Oh and SGB is a joke only being down 26% in the middle of a financial crisis.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
The two areas of support are the 2003 low of 2770 followed by 1987 at 1200. I reckon the music might stop at 2770 but wouldn't rule out 1200.
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Looks like a bump at 3400 ish first IMO, and has been discussed. This level coincides with a few supporting factors.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

3200 on the low side to 4800 on the high side are the 2 figures of interest as pork chop points out. Anything in between is boring.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
3200 on the low side to 4800 on the high side are the 2 figures of interest as pork chop points out. Anything in between is boring.
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Are you fairly agreed that around 3200 would be the bottom and the time to buy in, not for trading but for long term holding ?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
The two areas of support are the 2003 low of 2770 followed by 1987 at 1200. I reckon the music might stop at 2770 but wouldn't rule out 1200. What's going to lead XAO to either of these new depths? That's an easy question to answer, the financials. Australia is sitting in the mother of all housing bubbles and while house prices have gone a bit soft this year should they really tank due to a hike in unemployment then our banks, particularly CBA Australia's biggest home loan lender, which is seen as one of the safer banks may suddenly look very risky. Oh and SGB is a joke only being down 26% in the middle of a financial crisis.
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I don't think it's that bad CamKawa. Sure, Aus has some high debt levels, but we don't have the intrinsic default trigger that the US has... ie there is not a large subprime market in Aus and our financial system is much better regulated, consequently you won't see people just walking away from their homes and debt en mass. I don't see a bit of a rise in unemployment causing major problems in the housing market.



nunthewiser said:
LOL dont write off cat food in troubled times either :) some mighty fine lookin varietys out there if worse comes to worse and ya cant afford cat food , theres always the cat
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CanOz said:
LOL! Your a funny nun!

Cheers,


CanOz
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Hey, you lot... stop scaring my cats.

Cat's are really man's best friend... ya never know when you'll need an extra life or two.


Besides, there's not much meat on a scrawny old cat, they're mostly a few tough little muscles and cunning grey matter.

Now BEARS on the other hand are big and plentifull atm... and mostly starting to tire out, so they're easy prey :D... except Panda's of course, they're protected. ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tcoates said:
Ummm. But I have seen in posts on other forums or emails alternative points of view. Some indicate a long (5-7 years) flat period (range bound) vs an up movement after 2 years.

OzWave - there are some "must" and "if" which make it seem conditional. As such, there are alternatives? Are there not?

Tim

PS. This is not a criticism. Just thinking out loud.
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No problems TC. There's an alternative count that puts the bottom in at around 3250 points - all described in the file posted.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

gfresh said:
OzWaveGuy, I know yours is purely a technical perspective, however does the wave count illustrated be backtested to any periods in the last 50 years? Or even longer I guess, but over similar periods to that illustrated.

Sorry I know very little about EW, however surely if it can be predictive like this it must apply equally to previous periods in the recent past?
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I suggest you take a look at www.elliottwave.com - there's plenty of free material there. As for 'backtesting' look for 5-3 wave formations at any degree of trend at any timescale on any index. Some will be very easy to spot, some will be very complex.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ageo said:
lol i love peoples ignorance!, i just hope your not advising anyone!

P.S im not saying 1500 is likely but never say never (remember you dont determine the market but it determines you).
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I'll not buy into this fashion where the most dire prediction wins. I'll not rule out WW III or any other global disaster, for that IMO is what it would take to achieve the 1500 level.
But I will not allow my trading strategies to be ruled by a Henny Penny "Sky is falling " philosophy
JUST MY OPINION


Ageo I may not be up to your legendary trader status, but I have traded through the sub-prime and I am still in the game so pls do not take me for a fool. Thank You, Nick
 
Re: XAO Analysis

XAO 3440 area will pull the market up, It is the 50% retrace of all time high, not to mention the tops of 01-02. If you go back to 1987 you will see that it had a 50% pullback and bottomed. 50% is THE MOST IMPORTANT retracement number in the market without any doubt, whether your a technician or a fundie everybody knows what 50% means, (61.8 means nothing to fundies and many techies) so if your looking for major buying from fundies and techies look at 50%. The 50% area will get bought up big time if and when it happens, COUNT ON IT.

Now of course whether that stops the market long term may be a different matter, however short mid term if the marekt gets down there then we will bounce hard.

But we have to get there first, time will tell.
 
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