XAO Technical Analysis

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very high chance of oil going to new lows overnight.

Ouch... let us know how you went.

Are you going to continuously remind us of this call as well Whiskers?

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

oh well , looks like i miss a bit of cream on the trades ......... sheet happens , still tho a buck in the bank beats a buck in the bushes anyday ....... will be other trade entrys

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't forget to read the Peak Oil thread people - you will see that oil has only one way to go IMO

Yeah, thanks jono... actually I do keep a close eye on it, although I mostly posted in the Oil Again' thread, when the Oil peak burst.

Still think it's got one more significant leg down before it bottoms, probably in the 40's. More to to with market action and over-reaction than anything else.

A very high chance that did not eventuate - oil up $6.

Actually, it did find new lows in USD about three/four hours after our market closed at 62.25 for US and 58.41 for Brent, before it went higher in USD.

BUT, what is important is the AUD strengthened 4 cents against the USD at the same time, from about .66 to .70.

Haven't done the maths yet to see what oil now equates to when converted back to AUD.

From our markets perspective it's the AUD conversion that's important. Similarly, metals and gold made small gains in USD, but probably wiped out in the AUD conversion.

The US stocks also rallied on election day, but I think that was a bit of a no-brainer given US paitriotism of late.

The $64 question is whether or not our markets follows the US and where is oil and our market or more particularly the XEJ, going to end the day, bearing in mind that oil (in USD) is still in a down trend and coming off it's overnight peak in the last few hours and the AUD, I believe has bottomed a few days ago and is in an uptrend again.

With regard to treefrogs question, it's risky and as I said could easily drop off a cliff, if solely focusing on the hourly charts... hence I would either be watching it like a mother hen or taking my profits conservatively.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

Still think it's got one more significant leg down before it bottoms, probably in the 40's. More to to with market action and over-reaction than anything else.

well.........there ya go, something we agree on whiskers - 40's for oil. It's likely the Omani oil minister agrees as saw a newswire where they (Oman) included oil revenues in their 09 budget at $55 (ave for the year) but yes, yes.....:topic
oh and re the XEJ trade - not trading the oil prospects, just the retrace following oversold conditions

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

oh well , looks like i miss a bit of cream on the trades ......... sheet happens , still tho a buck in the bank beats a buck in the bushes anyday ....... will be other trade entrys

Can't call them all nun . However, the next couple of days will tell where the market is heading. As of today, a possible wave c up is complete in a wave IV triangle (same on the S&P500).

 

[Sunder]

Re: XAO Analysis

I was wondering about something I observed about yesterdays hanging man candle.

When you get a hangman, people tend to say that the upward run has finished.

However, is that because they expect a morning star pattern to form the next day by gapping down lower?

If the following day starts with a gap up and continues on with strength, would you say then that a hanging man was a false signal, and was actually more representative of a hammer, indicating a bottom was tested, and respected, and the upward trend would continue?

I'm trying to learn a bit more about candlestick analysis, but I am a bit confused and amused by the multiple interpretations depending on context, both before AND AFTER a signal.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's just logic Sunder, apply your own to it to form your own conclusions.

I don't give my credence to a hanging man. I personally, think a shooting star is more reliable due to the low close (high volume preferable and if the tail hits a resistance, then it's very strong IMO).

If price gaps up above a hanging man, do you think it would invalidate it? I do.

Anyways, perhaps create a thread on candlesticks or search for one.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Can't call them all nun . However, the next couple of days will tell where the market is heading. As of today, a possible wave c up is complete in a wave IV triangle (same on the S&P500).

cheers , looks like i was out by a day only . in fact some of the trades closed were of only a minor rise past my exits anyways with the exception of BHP but hey not too many out there can say they can pick the exact highest and lowests

any thoughts on ST moves except the obvious falls tommorow ? small pullback and continue rally or we finished this rally completely and heading for new lows now ?

only opinions sought not gunna hold ya ransom to them

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Highly likely this is the end of the wave 4
This "Could" develop into a 3 wave correction to 4500 -4800 but looks unlikely with the severity of todays thrust down.

Wave 5 down is expected initially to reach 3200.
wether thats part of this move or wave 4 actually continues---which looks doubtful.(I'm noticing any corrections from this mornings fall are not supported with volume.Sellers are waiting for any move to sell into).

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Highly likely this is the end of the wave 4
This "Could" develop into a 3 wave correction to 4500 -4800 but looks unlikely with the severity of todays thrust down.

Wave 5 down is expected initially to reach 3200.
wether thats part of this move or wave 4 actually continues---which looks doubtful.(I'm noticing any corrections from this mornings fall are not supported with volume.Sellers are waiting for any move to sell into).

cheers , yeah i think patience for now may be the winner , i got no indicators ringin in for a long buy as yet , only one actually looking at me for a trade but even that i think i may get a little cheaper yet

thanks for your view

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Another Evening Star. :hide:

WPL: although only on a minor high, but everything is relative. Probably significant enough to see it go lower for a couple of weeks or so.

It's only about 3% of XAO, about 9% of Resources but about 30% of Energy XEJ.

So assuming other oil stocks trend the same way, that's gonna be a bit of a dead weight on the XAO getting up very much.

Possible Evening Star call on XEJ, a false alarm. My Chart didn't refresh properly when I set it up.

So hopefully this one makes up for it. Check for yer self.

Treefrog, did ya take yer profits yet or are yer still rideing it (XEJ)?

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is room for another up day but judging by the last bar I would say we could be seeing the Wave 5 take shape.

There are many stocks in a similiar pattern just begging to be shorted.
Can someone tell the 'no shorting' decision makers and their supporters that the market is going down anyway regardless of whether we can trade it or not

My

 

[tcoates]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes... it does appear to be in no mans land at the present. Would tend to think that it would progress towards monthly lows around 3500 (as it moved up though the pivot point yesterday but today was def. down).

With the size of the down move today (?) would expect tomorrow to be up, even if slightly, but then...

... still would depend on size of move in DOW (and/or S&P 500) overnight.

Which all goes to show that daily speculation on the next day is akin to reading tea leaves (or the stuff you find in the bottom of a bottle of red wine).

BUT THE GENERAL DIRECTION IS STILL DOWN.

Whiskers - I didn't know this was a WPL/Candle thread

Could someone create a morning/evening star thread for Whiskers?

Tim

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Could someone create a morning/evening star thread for Whiskers?

Tim

i think it depends on the timezone you are in

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes... it does appear to be in no mans land at the present. Would tend to think that it would progress towards monthly lows around 3500 (as it moved up though the pivot point yesterday but today was def. down).

With the size of the down move today (?) would expect tomorrow to be up, even if slightly, but then...

... still would depend on size of move in DOW (and/or S&P 500) overnight.

Yeah, to some extent... but I'm thinking commodity prices and the AUD are probably more significant now, cos I doubt we can get much strength without the resource and agriculture sectors doing well.

Which all goes to show that daily speculation on the next day is akin to reading tea leaves (or the stuff you find in the bottom of a bottle of red wine).

...or the stars.

Whiskers - I didn't know this was a WPL/Candle thread

Could someone create a morning/evening star thread for Whiskers?

Tim

Augh, com'on Tim... candles and the direction of significant stocks in the XAO and the sectors has got to be just as or more significant to the XAO as the SPI, XJO, DOW, S&P 500, Nasdaq, other futures, VIX, EW, Fibinacci etc... and certainly more relevant than a lot of the idle chit chat and personality attacking that goes on. :

PS: Smart ass, nun.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Before anyone asks - yes it's off topic. Now for my question: Does anyone know where I can get a list of the RBA interest rate rises/cuts including date and time released. The RBA site doesn't appear to have anything. Appreciate your help.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Before anyone asks - yes it's off topic. Now for my question: Does anyone know where I can get a list of the RBA interest rate rises/cuts including date and time released. The RBA site doesn't appear to have anything. Appreciate your help.

Try here OzWaveGuy... and I reckon it's relevant.

http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_i.html

scroll down to:
Interest Rate - Monetary Policy Changes - A2 http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/A02hist.xls

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is room for another up day but judging by the last bar I would say we could be seeing the Wave 5 take shape.

There are many stocks in a similiar pattern just begging to be shorted.
Can someone tell the 'no shorting' decision makers and their supporters that the market is going down anyway regardless of whether we can trade it or not

My

Boggo you are on the money mate.

Looks like a wave 5 beginning.

One way to short is to sell any stocks you now own and buy back in at the end of the wave 5.

Otherwise options may be the go.

gg

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Try here OzWaveGuy... and I reckon it's relevant.

http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_i.html

scroll down to:
Interest Rate - Monetary Policy Changes - A2 http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/A02hist.xls

definately relevant , in fact if one of you kind ppl want to post a chart with vols and intrest rate rises and falls dated shown on there for the last 2 years minimum (preferebly 8 but getting the daily vols might be a bit hard on them dates) id be much abliged , i dont know how to attach bits and bobs or postem here

thankyou in advance regardless

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wave 5 down is expected initially to reach 3200.

I doubt it. I'll pick support at 3400 based on the old 2004 support and 2002 resistance levels. Maybe it'll go lower eventually, but not in one go. Some of us have long memories.