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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
How were you going to trade that correlation with any sort of decent application?
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MRC - Why would I care? I was simply highlighting a 'factoid'. Same goes for Contrarian indicators, they can all propose a top/bottom is in place, but you wouldn't day trade against any of it as it all depends on your investment/trading style(s)

The people that should be taking notes on the longer term factors are those that would/are being seriously impacted by the current decline. Unfortunately it's ~90% of investors out there.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Thanks for that MRC

lol... yeah, I like to trade off my 'stars' signs even quite literally... the cycles of things.

Big 'coincidence' that so many have lined up atm... but I don't believe in coincidences.
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one day you might actually find a real morning star pattern whiskers and alas, no-one will take any notice at all: hmmmmmm come to think of it. Anyway, sorry about the whack on your head, hope you are seeing less stars after the rest over the weekend.
TCL chart shows a morning star pattern: although not a particularly strong one.
as for the DOW, there hasn't been one there of late at all: - refer to EOD chart candles of DOW - you seem to be using something other than NYSE EOD candles whiskers.
And also take care jumping onto forex charts, the ones you have posted do not appear to be US EOD, (where most of the financial muscle is usually assumed to be). Forex charts have three or more EOD closes depending on which charts you use - asia, GMT (europe) and US.
EOD on one does not necessarilly reflect the others - particularly for candle patterns - US close posted here.

note: I am not saying the candle formations you refer to as morning stars do not indicate bullish tendancies - just that they are not morning stars for the following reasons:
pink - no gap down and negated by immediate failure and subsequent lower low
blue - no gap down (bullish indications though)
yellow (on US$v JPY) - yes/no/unclear? but the reversal flag on one hr was there regardless of EOD charts used - don't come any more classic or easy money from an exhaustion break than that - daily momentum still down (ie JPY strengthening against US$ for mine though)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


Quite so... one has to wonder what some of these guys are on with their somewhat incongruous language and mood at times.

Seriously, are you on drugs, Chops... lsd or something?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
TCL chart shows a morning star pattern: although not a particularly strong one.
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From 28/6/07!


That chart with pink and blue is NOT the Dow Jones Industrials Average.

The DOW... your bottom chart labeled INDU, clearly shows a morning star whith a tail to the low which has not yet been breeched lower.


Are you sure? ... what with Morning Stars with the USD, EUR, GBP and AUD against the JPY (on my charts)... I'll take a wager on that.


I believe these spot gold, forex charts I posted refer to live quotes on a 24 hour global OED period... not percular to any one exchange or futures contract etc and are probably more reliable on a world wide trend basis.

I have found and discussed previously, spot quote differences between the LGE and NYMEX/COMEX for example. I suppose it gets down to which source you think is more reliable in the big picture.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Re the morning star discussion. Whiskers, when you see em' post em in the forum, always keen to see how they correlate to other analysis that myself or others use.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Aus 200 cash mini critial support around 3900 ish looks to have held also around break up point from downtrend line over the past few weeks.

Next hurdle around 4300.

Not sure how that equates to the XAO....
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Re the morning star discussion. Whiskers, when you see em' post em in the forum, always keen to see how they correlate to other analysis that myself or others use.
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Will do OzWaveGuy.

I've traded off Evening Stars in individual stocks and spot gold perfectly, not so many Morning Stars, so curious to see how well a heap of them that are appearing now transpire out, but haven't done a lot of work until recently with them on indicies.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
From 28/6/07!

The DOW... your bottom chart labeled INDU, clearly shows a morning star whith a tail to the low which has not yet been breeched lower.
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whiskers,
ever looked up into the sky on a clear night? A lot of the stars you think you see are no longer there - its just their light still travelling to earth.

The fact there is no gap down to open on the second candle means no morning star either. Sorry, but if you are going to cite candle nonsense at least get it right.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Wow, you really are in a bad mood aren't you treefrog.

Firstly, may I suggest you get it right before bad-mouthing others.

As I said your purple and blue chart was not the DOW.

Your other chart labled 'INDU' clearly had the 'low' tail that has not been breeched yet, despite your assertion that it had.

If your chart doesn't have a gap down, maybe you should check your data.

This image is from the Big Charts web site... not my data. So if you're saying my data is wrong you're saying BigCharts and maybe others are wrong.

Incredible Charts has a gap down and the long tail, but for some reason a different, (longer) third candle... but none-the-less a morning star.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


Excuse me folks, for dwelling on this off topic issue, but there has been a lot of insults and abuse by some who throw plenty of mud (untruths) which unfortunately sometimes sticks and should be stamped out.

I do believe you didn't even bother to check treefrog.

Take note of the opening and closing prices underlined in blue.

Another apology won't go astray.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Wow, you really are in a bad mood aren't you treefrog.
Firstly, may I suggest you get it right before bad-mouthing others.
As I said your purple and blue chart was not the DOW...
Click to expand...

oh dear - never said it was - I used that as an example of different data = different formations - I posted the dow and clearly referenced it as the dow

Your other chart labled 'INDU' clearly had the 'low' tail that has not been breeched yet, despite your assertion that it had....
Click to expand...

I made no reference to the tail at all but that your "morning star" pattern had failed. It has failed because of the subsequent price action sideways including an EOD lower low - I have always been referring to EOD not intraday levels - can't be sure what you are referring to though as you seem to have a penchant for misquoting/misrepresenting.


Ah! the penny has dropped has it (one can hope): yes there are varying timeframes and even data on the same timeframe and not everyone sees the same OHLC you see. Indeed if you ever start trading it is paramount to ensure that charts and quoted prices are in synch.(the same value at the same time).

Yes, the bigcharts pattern is a genuine morning star: (earlier post of research data shows the success rate is 50/50 at best). Add to that, as we have just established, that not everyone gets one when you do: the result is there to see on your bigchart - another claytons morning star failure.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


I won't specifically weigh into this discussion, but some food for thought...If I have a candle pattern that has a 50/50 success rate, can I simply use this as the basis of a trading strategy?? If I could use this pattern as a simple enabler to trade, and I get me 40-50% winners ( because this formation has a 50% strike rate), then that's a good thing for a possible strategy.

Wait for a morning Star...depending on risk, wait for a test...go long on Highest High value in "n" days(??) and manage the trade.

One other point to mention is this 50% reliability. What does this mean if you break it down ??

How reliable is the signal if there is a lower low immediately to my left?; or how reliable is it, if the candle pattern forms above a 50 day MA? Or between a 50 and 200 day MA, or when price action is below a 200 day MA???

Knowing your craft's tools and indeed how potent they are in certain climes, and in certain markets is important. Do you guys ever notice that certain patterns seem to just work across many equities, and then become less potent as the market changes, or sentiment changes?? I guess, what works one day may not work the next.

Whiskers/Treefrog, carry on....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes said:
One other point to mention is this 50% reliability. What does this mean if you break it down ??

I guess, what works one day may not work the next.
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And what works at open, in the morning, at lunch, afternoon and close completely changes too, intraday.

Not to mention, what is 50% reliability? The wider the stop you give it, the greater reliability. It's why it's such an art and why it's vital to know your edge. Mine personally, is always trying to gain a slight edge in both win % and average win to average loss, make 200+ trades a day, and it's pretty reliable day to day, so far.

IMHO
 
Re: XAO Analysis


All good points MRC!! And it's an art I'm still learning.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Are you serious???!!! 200+ trades a day - that's impressive MRC. Even if you are spending 12 hours a day trading that's still one every 3.5 minutes! Do you have software to trade for you? How do you manage that many trades?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jonojpsg said:
Are you serious???!!! 200+ trades a day - that's impressive MRC. Even if you are spending 12 hours a day trading that's still one every 3.5 minutes! Do you have software to trade for you? How do you manage that many trades?
Click to expand...

Hey mate,

It's all done manually. Manage it myself, no stops, just manual exits. Just scalping the SPI only and the majority is done in the first hour and last hour of trading. Same method as TH, just intraday scalping (that being said, I don't have much risk tolerance, so my stops are tight and hence, I am literally scalping 1-5 ticks at a time most of the day, except for big momentum moves), hence the large number of trades.

But just as TH says, with that many trades, if you have a slight edge on a highly leveraged instrument (futures), you end up being able to be consistent (over a couple hundred trades your edge will generally come out) and just 100 ticks is still a couple grand a day after brokerage.

By no means an expert yet though. But good money off scalping can be a pretty rapid learning curve and implementation.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I must admit ... I am quite shocked by today's performance. With so much negative news out and about - I'm surprised such a strong rally managed to manifest.

I must say it certainly feels as if there isn't as much fear at this moment, but this only stands to reinforce the volatility of these markets - so I shall still sit along the sidelines.

I did have a dream that the bottom was in though, so all in fellas! I jest
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I must say it certainly feels as if there isn't as much fear at this moment, but this only stands to reinforce the volatility of these markets - so I shall still sit along the sidelines.
Click to expand...

Yeh, it felt a couple days ago, the big sellers had done most of their business and bailed out of most long positions. Then again, this may just be them trying to position themselves to get higher prices, would make sense, it's how the big boys play. Short-term longs still looking good though.

IR announcement tomorrow, interesting times.

What are you looking to do Nyden, find a point at which you can invest for the longer-term and feel safe?
 
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