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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
it probably does mean the buyers are that way disposed but without a price and volume spike together it probably also means the sellers are conversely disposed to a negative open on monday
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Oh there was a price spike on most I saw.

Here is a 5 min tick chart of BHP

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Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
Just a minor hesitation on W4, up to 4300 and then down to 3400 is my :2twocents
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Agreed, I guess I just had some newbie panic :p

Here's my updated EW analysis. I see the XAO climbing to about 4100 before dropping to ~3500. After waves a, b and c, I think the XAO might be at ~3800. This is assuming that wave 4 is approximately equal to wave 2 and wave 5 is approximately equal to wave 1.
If this is the case, then it looks like there's a small period to make some good gains :)

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Re: XAO Analysis

saiter said:
Agreed, I guess I just had some newbie panic :p

Here's my updated EW analysis. I see the XAO climbing to about 4100 before dropping to ~3500. After waves a, b and c, I think the XAO might be at ~3800. This is assuming that wave 4 is approximately equal to wave 2 and wave 5 is approximately equal to wave 1.
If this is the case, then it looks like there's a small period to make some good gains :)
Click to expand...
and................., a longer period to make some much better gains...........going short - ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Isn't shorting banned? Also, I don't have any shares to short haha, this will be my first entry into the markets.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

In August 2007 and January of this year I posted some charts on the long term action of the xao since 1980.

I'd like to update them and seek comment.

Both charts are line charts and the second is a semilog chart.

In the first chart it is reasonable to expect the xao to come down to either the old trendline from 1982 which would place the xao at 3000 or the newer trendline from 1992 which would place it at 3500

The second is a semilog and shows some interesting support and resistance lines, a 3500 seems more like a bottom , although 2350 is a distinct possibility.

The first chart by the way shows an obvious wave 3 in ew analysis, so a recovery and further falls to trendlines or support and resistance would not be out of the question.

We are in interesting charting times.

gg
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The monthly shows wave 5 stopping at 2700, and I'm guessing the corrective waves are going to take it back up to 3300-3500. Alot of assumptions were made though:
  • wave 3 = 1.5 x wave 1
  • wave 4 = wave 2
  • wave 5 = wave 1

xao-3.gif

Also, the EW in the daily chart that I posted before is contained in this larger wave 3, and its corrective waves will (IMO) contribute to this larger wave 4. Again, the larger corrective waves will take the XAO back to 3300-3500, which is close to the light green trend line (resistance). I believe that the larger corrective wave B will form meet the dotted purple trend line (support).

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Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
In August 2007 and January of this year I posted some charts on the long term action of the xao since 1980.

I'd like to update them and seek comment.

Both charts are line charts and the second is a semilog chart.

In the first chart it is reasonable to expect the xao to come down to either the old trendline from 1982 which would place the xao at 3000 or the newer trendline from 1992 which would place it at 3500

The second is a semilog and shows some interesting support and resistance lines, a 3500 seems more like a bottom , although 2350 is a distinct possibility.

The first chart by the way shows an obvious wave 3 in ew analysis, so a recovery and further falls to trendlines or support and resistance would not be out of the question.

We are in interesting charting times.

gg
Click to expand...

hi gg

few posts on this around pp 265/266 including update of great Pig's semilog
 
Re: XAO Analysis

hi guys,

Plenty of discussion on EW lately... would be mistaken to think this thread is more of an EW thread than an XAO one...

What happened to the more traditional TA's like S/R, Trends, Divergence, etc...? are they no good during volatile market conditions like this?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
hi guys,

Plenty of discussion on EW lately... would be mistaken to think this thread is more of an EW thread than an XAO one...

What happened to the more traditional TA's like S/R, Trends, Divergence, etc...? are they no good during volatile market conditions like this?
Click to expand...

same same as always k1 - just not fashionable. EW is in atm - not getting it right mind but that doesn't deter 'em. I think someone said the EW thread is broken :rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
hi guys,

Plenty of discussion on EW lately... would be mistaken to think this thread is more of an EW thread than an XAO one...

What happened to the more traditional TA's like S/R, Trends, Divergence, etc...? are they no good during volatile market conditions like this?
Click to expand...

K1 I think that the current moves are fairly close to basic EW formations and while that is reflected in the index movements then people will be drawn to the EW discussion.

As soon as there is a divergence away from basic EW and it becomes more complex as to the outlook which is likely to occur if and when the market travels side ways then you will see a drop of about EW and a rise in its criticism.

Following on from this point most argument about trading methods usually come from those who have limited knowledge of the method or bias in their thinking that they fail to recognize.

Another trait I often see is a distinct lack of understanding in the very basics of how to deploy a trading method for consistent returns where as most argue the merits of the method its self.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Lots of trades are indicating a wave 4 up move occuring now.
If interested I am running some commentary over on Reef on a few current trades.Using Elliot and VSA. Warts and all.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Slightly off topic... but on the EW thing....

... think that it also provides readers (not necessarily those with knowledge) with something to grab hold of as where the market will go. It provides a degree of certainty, especially in uncertain times!

People probably don't care when the market goes up, but when it goes down, the question is how far.

Functions like EW (which I have only glanced at) and Pivot Points provide a glimpse into the future (til proven otherwise) where as "traditional" tools do not do this.

But here are two charts for the XAO with Pivot Points. (The again, maybe this is traditional.) The chart shows weekly, monthly and quarterly among others.

The first is the action for this week. You can see it bounced up from support and ended at weekly pivot level. But we are still below the monthly support (1) (calculated from the prev. month). Presently can only work from weekly timeframe?

xao-1.gif

Here is next week and month. We could move up to the monthly pivot and then either move higher or lower. Next month resistance is about 4600. But otherwise the move is lower compared with the current month.

xao-2.gif

FYI - the quarterly line is NOT projected forward into the next month/quarter.

What is important is how "price" reacts at the Pivot, support and resistance levels.
Tim

PS. The yearly stuff is only there to give me some sort of the reference over the years, otherwise is unnecessary (before you comment)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Wow, what a cue for me to make an entry again. ;)

DOW Morning Star still in tact supporting notion the bottom is in for the US. The other two I mentioned probably weren't strictly morning stars. :eek:

The XAO hourly chart is looking like it will make 4000 at least.

The USDX recovery started off with a morning star as did the Spot Gold run end with an Evening Star.

The USD/JPY has a good Morning Star bottom which supports the notion that the USDX is on the way down again.

The AUD/USD has a good Morning Star supporting that notion.

The bottom line... commodities probably bottomed too with big funds just about done with their liquidating assets to meet cash commitments, so all the signs suggesting some cash may come back into our market and keep the XAO going.
Click to expand...

Ooops, missprint.

Try again...

According to Morning Star's the JPY looks set to fall against the USD, EUR, GBP and AUD.

The GBP and AUD to rise against the USD and the AUD also rise against the EUR.

So if the 'stars' are anything to go by :eek: the JPY is set for a hiding .

The USD will go lower particularly against the GBP and AUD but maintain strength against the JPY.

From the 'stars' the AUD seems to be going higher against the USD, EUR and JPY, suggesting some money flow back to Aus markets

Of interest particularly for our resource sector, USD Spot Gold fell in EUR and GBP three weeks ago, but started to rise in JPY a few days ago.

'The stars' seem to be suggesting some significant realignment of values has just started to transform with AUS a significant gainer in strength.

All the charts are here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=356581#post356581
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Lots of trades are indicating a wave 4 up move occuring now.
If interested I am running some commentary over on Reef on a few current trades.Using Elliot and VSA. Warts and all.
Click to expand...

Tech/a, would they be exposed to oil and construction maybe in particular?

Can you give us a link to the commentry at 'Reef'?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

And now for some good old fashioned support and resist lvls.

We've been trading inside a channel after 1987 crash. We've broken out of that channel briefly and now come all the way down. My experience with channels is that once they do a false break one way; they will break for real the other way. Recently we've seen the test and bounce around the channel support. (the image isnt too clear but we've gone through the channel support and sorta retested it)
Targets are 0.786 and 1.00 retractment zones.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

lol, if it's anything like the SPI, it will probably now break up through that bottom channel, take out all the weak shorts and get headed south again. Would be pretty consistent with a current short-term low and further lows to be seen down the track. Not to mention, this is the cash index based on the SPI :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
And now for some good old fashioned support and resist lvls....
Click to expand...

sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....

So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
Or
We see a break of this trendline after some further sideways consolidation that may last a couple of weeks before a further drop. Then there could be one final revisit or 'kiss' of the trendline acting as resistance before more downside?

Nun - got any views?
 
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