XAO Technical Analysis

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....

So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
Or
We see a break of this trendline after some further sideways consolidation that may last a couple of weeks before a further drop. Then there could be one final revisit or 'kiss' of the trendline acting as resistance before more downside?

Nun - got any views?

personally cannot call a bottom until i see it , i dont think we have seen the overall lows as yet BUT theres a few individual stocks that i reckon have seen them .I think that there is no hurry to be rentering for investment purposes but there sure is some beutiful short term trade ops to be had and will be had .

re the bounce we have been in one a couple of days now

re not posting , it was because of points , seems i have more leeway than i thought.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Funny that.

I could have sworn you were short gold from about 700 and oil from about 80.

You've raised an interesting point. Robert Prechter discussed a "all the same markets" phenomenon that we have rarely seen before (and I haven't overlayed long term charts to validate).

The "all same markets" phenomenon that we have recently seen is where Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Oil (probably heaps of others) were roughly in sync as far as each were making new highs (or thereabouts) at roughly the same time. This was reported as a rarely seen phenomenon. Now all are in decline including gold.

From an investor psychology standpoint, this could imply that new money entering the market was trying to find place of considerable growth - oil being the most recent. All have now rolled over - cash will once again be king

From and EW standpoint - many markets were wrapping up a large wave 5 (except gold)

I hope this isn't too far off topic. :millhouse

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....

So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
Or
We see a break of this trendline after some further sideways consolidation that may last a couple of weeks before a further drop. Then there could be one final revisit or 'kiss' of the trendline acting as resistance before more downside?

I think SQ was saying though it's not clear, we have already seen a break of the bottom support line of the trend channel, followed by a retest (resistance).

I agree with SQ, in that most trendlines (and technical patterns for that matter), are BS breakouts (false breaks), before price then goes on to breakout the other way. It's how most markets trade IMO and definately so in the SPI. Which would mean in all probability, a retest of that 'resistance', will actually be broken, before it will then come back down, which would show confluence with most other forms of analysis showing a short-term bottom for now but further downside to come. However, this method would only show a test up through that resistance, meaning this rally will be short-lived, just enough to get weak shorts out and for some to start to become bullish again, which is what we are now seeing in this thread

Very short-term long trades only IMO.

No waves in that, just a genuine depiction of how price actually moves in reality (only a probability of course).

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

If interested I am running some commentary over on Reef on a few current trades.Using Elliot and VSA. Warts and all.

Unfortunately not a member of Reef, so I miss out.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

The "all same markets" phenomenon that we have recently seen is where Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Oil (probably heaps of others) were roughly in sync as far as each were making new highs (or thereabouts) at roughly the same time. This was reported as a rarely seen phenomenon. Now all are in decline including gold.

Gold and oil were hardly making new highs at the same time as stocks (or thereabouts).

How were you going to trade that correlation with any sort of decent application?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Unfortunately not a member of Reef, so I miss out.

Just takes too much time to post the analysis on 2 forums.
Its really for those who are interested in my use of VSA and Elliott combined.
Quite a few have asked for more indepth explaination there so thats where I went--not pushing the site just informing.

Back to the XAO.
I'm noticing a great number of stocks in completion of wave 3s.
I saw this at the time of the top back last year many many were in wave 5 of 5 completions. The market cant really do much else that capitulate which it did.
In this case its come to a point of oversold and needs to take a breather.
Wave 4s are often the length of wave 2s and that being the case this wave 4 isnt likely to extend much past 4500 ish (On the weekly XAO chart)
The daily is currently showing the end of a wave 5,I expect this to extend at sometime to 3200 ish.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just takes too much time to post the analysis on 2 forums.

I tried to join that forum once but they rejected my email address for some reason.



Not good enough....

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....

So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
Or
We see a break of this trendline after some further sideways consolidation that may last a couple of weeks before a further drop. Then there could be one final revisit or 'kiss' of the trendline acting as resistance before more downside?

Nun - got any views?

I see sideways/up consolidation, kissing the trendline and a break above (probably after some huge day in the US) before finally falling down again.
(Which kind of fits with this rally as wave 4, and final decline wave 5... well since everyone is agreed on how this is gonna play out its probably gonna do the opposite)

And as MRC & Co said, maybe I've been spooked too much by the SPI, maybe its just a nice clean channel bounce and back to the glory days : (asif)

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

And as MRC & Co said, maybe I've been spooked too much by the SPI, maybe its just a nice clean channel bounce and back to the glory days : (asif)

Didn't you say the bottom of the channel on that chart had already been broken and we are now testing it again (if so, I think we will false break through it and fall back, which does suit the EW analysis)? I don't think we are going back to the glory days, though it would be nice to see for the super holders.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

Didn't you say the bottom of the channel on that chart had already been broken and we are now testing it again (if so, I think we will false break through it and fall back, which does suit the EW analysis)? I don't think we are going back to the glory days, though it would be nice to see for the super holders.

Depends on how you draw the trendlines... Its practically off by 2 pixels in the weekly...
I do think we'll eventually go back to the glory days, 5? 10? 20 years? Who knows, but we'll get there eventually : D

 

[Pairs Trader]

Re: XAO Analysis

Bring on a Santa Clause Rally!

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Bring on a Santa Clause Rally!

Yep, that is another thing. From memory, middle of November through start of January are generally by a LONG SHOT, the most bullish periods throughout stockmarket history.

Long-term, as in 10+ years, I'm still not sure. Growth of Chindia etc could cause a big problem of stagflation due to inflating commodity prices for debt ridden Western society, which will then affect those economies. A real paradigm shift.

Wouldn't like to be investing as such, much of my portfolio, anytime soon!

 

[stoner]

Re: XAO Analysis

Robert Prechter discussed a "all the same markets" phenomenon that we have rarely seen before (and I haven't overlayed long term charts to validate).

The "all same markets" phenomenon that we have recently seen is where Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Oil (probably heaps of others) were roughly in sync as far as each were making new highs (or thereabouts) at roughly the same time. This was reported as a rarely seen phenomenon. Now all are in decline including gold.

I totally agree with OWG’s comments here regarding the “All the Same Market” phenomenon.

Since 2003 due to the infusion of credit more dollars have been looking for a home. This fueled the rise and mania of many markets world wide. That is quite obvious.

MRC, sure various markets like Gold and Oil have been slightly out of sync with the rest (approximately 4-6 months). But over the slightly longer term horizon, many markets have been moving up and Gold and Oil started down within some months of each other.

I also find it amusing that 6-8 months ago, the consensus in this forum and just about everywhere else was that “The Dollar was Doomed”. How ironic that this year, the best performer has been the US Dollar. What do the precious metal bulls have to say now?

How many forecast services called 2008 the “The Year of Financial Flameout” in late 2007? I only know of one.

All the best

STONER

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

8 months? Aren't you new?

How are you going to trade that though Stoner? Long stocks, then at the high, quickly switch and go long oil, then go long USD once the oil rally is finished, did you time that?

You have to know what correlates NOW, to have any chance of catching corresponding moves. Correlations change intraday many times, let alone over a period of months.

 

[stoner]

Re: XAO Analysis

8 months? Aren't you new?

How are you going to trade that though Stoner? Long stocks, then at the high, quickly switch and go long oil, then go long USD once the oil rally is finished, did you time that?

You have to know what correlates NOW, to have any chance of catching corresponding moves. Correlations change intraday many times, let alone over a period of months.

Yes I am new, but I can also read. You display much angst MRC, what's your problem anyways?

As for the trading. Well I didn't, apart for an oil short on STO with put options in October. The word approximate was mentioned. I had no idea what was going to happen on what day just like you and everybody else. But the obsevation re "All The Same Market" which was OWG's point is very valid, and there is no denying that.

STONER

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes I am new, but I can also read. You display much angst MRC, what's your problem anyways?

Something fishy is going on, if you get my drift.

IMO, correlations are best used intraday, when you can spread or catch movements when one instrument deviates.

I am not denying anything, but it's kind of pointless to trade, and there is no denying that.

As for the precious metal bulls, wrong thread. I'm not one of them at the moment.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

I totally agree with OWG’s comments here regarding the “All the Same Market” phenomenon.

That'd be a first.

Wavepicker agreeing with anyone, including himself.

I also find it amusing that 6-8 months ago,

Yes, I also find that amusing.

the consensus in this forum and just about everywhere else was that “The Dollar was Doomed”. How ironic that this year, the best performer has been the US Dollar. What do the precious metal bulls have to say now?

Yes, how ironic.

But I'm sure you didn't lose your shirt at all shorting gold on the breakout at about 700... or continually going long USD for the last 2 and a half years.

How many forecast services called 2008 the “The Year of Financial Flameout” in late 2007? I only know of one.

All the best

STONER

Who cares?

I only know of one person who had a premonition that oompa loompas tripping balls on lsd, in conjunction with the pussy gnomes stealing home mortgages in phase 2, were going to bring down the world economy.

Perhaps you should start another service: "A Million and One Ways to Continually Start and Lose E-Pissing Contests".

 

[stoner]

Re: XAO Analysis

Something fishy is going on, if you get my drift.

IMO, correlations are best used intraday, when you can spread or catch movements when one instrument deviates.

I am not denying anything, but it's kind of pointless to trade, and there is no denying that.

Sorry, don't get your drift pal.

The whole point was about trading it was it? It was about the this phenomenon, "All the Same Market" which was an expression that Robert Prechter used to described the market activity of the last 3-4 years.

Apart from my STO options trade, the only other trade I had going was in buying USD some years ago. I had to wait a while to not only regain my losses but actually pull in a profit but happy now.

STONER

 

[stoner]

Re: XAO Analysis

I only know of one person who had a premonition that oompa loompas tripping balls on lsd, in conjunction with the pussy gnomes stealing home mortgages in phase 2, were going to bring down the world economy.

Perhaps you should start another service: "A Million and One Ways to Continually Lose E-Pissing contests".

?????

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry, don't get your drift pal.

The whole point was about trading it was it? It was about the this phenomenon, "All the Same Market" which was an expression that Robert Prechter used to described the market activity of the last 3-4 years.

Apart from my STO options trade, the only other trade I had going was in buying USD some years ago. I had to wait a while to not only regain my losses but actually pull in a profit but happy now.

STONER

Sorry, just a disappearance of two famed wavers and reappearance of two more with similar styles, anyways back to the topic.

Anyways, good work with the USD trade. I just relate everything to how you could profit from it, don't see much point otherwise, that's what this game is about, what works and how do you apply it, otherwise I would just be an analyst as opposed to a trader. But yes, a valid observation, interesting 'flight to quality' to say the least.

Cheers