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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hey OWG, been digesting your chart this morning. Once again thankyou
Been also looking at the SP500 in terns of Elliott Waves and so far this is what I make of it:
The rally over 2 days has a five wave pattern UP with one wave DOWN at the end of trading, which leads to three options:
1. the c wave of the triangle is not yet over - three of the five waves up were wave (a), the final two waves up (which broke down then up) plus the wave down were (b) or the start of (b), and we should have a final (c) wave UP when wave (b) ends
2. this c wave is breaking as a 5, and the correction will count as a flat not a triangle (flats go 3 3 5)
3. the correction ended on Oct14 and we are in the waves - [ii] of wave 5 down, with wave 2 breaking as a flat -- in which case the late day selloff was the start of wave [iii] of 5.
Which is it? The market will let us know within a day or so:
1. the triangle means a higher high that ends BELOW the Oct14 high, and then we drop in wave d and rise in wave e -- call it the mish-mash-through-the-election scenario
2. the flat means a higher high that will end ABOVE the Oct14 high, then a drop in wave 5 that goes below the Oct10 intraday low -- call this the fake out before the drop
3. the wave [iii] down means we just drop tomorrow and go below the Oct10 intraday low

Ofcourse there is also one other option which is the one I have adopted in my own analysis which not totally based on conventional Elliott wave analysis: bullish! I see at least another 100 pts in the S&P shortly.

All the best

STONER
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stoner said:
The key date was 30th October and the low came in one day earelier than expected.
Click to expand...

stoner said:
The low in the SP500 and DJIA on 10th October ended a major cycle, as such I will hang onto my longs for a few more days possibly even another week
Click to expand...
Stoner, Interesting you mention 10 Oct as the end of a major cycle and yet the market has made further lows and now the key date is 30 Oct.

Where are you getting these dates from?

Must be some sort of Gann, or Fib I assume?

Cheers,
kennas
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stoner said:
MRC

I am not going to delve into this just now. FWIW IT has nothing to do with Fundamental Analysis or announcements, therefore would be of no interest to you.
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Actually, I scalp intraday, everyday. So it probably would be of interest to me. I use important levels (fade or breakout), fundamental announcements, false breaks, false breaks of false breaks (of important levels, boxes, triangles), rounding tops, V bottoms, BS (bull **** fake out) rounding tops and flags, legit flags, trade squeezes, order book, HH, HL (basic trend), volume, look at international markets (maily S&P night session and HSI + Aussie cash market), 1 + 5 min charts. All for SPI trading.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Was that the bottom or not I don't know, but it's a fair question. The case against it not being the bottom is the TED spread. It's actually ticked up a bit meaning banks once again are less willing to trust each other and it's at a level way above the norm.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Stoner, Interesting you mention 10 Oct as the end of a major cycle and yet the market has made further lows and now the key date is 30 Oct.

Where are you getting these dates from?

Must be some sort of Gann, or Fib I assume?

Cheers,
kennas
Click to expand...

You didn't read my posts very carefully kennas did you?

The above mentioned dates were for SP500 not for the Aussie Index.

As for dates, they are derived from both Gann and Fibonacci but also some cycles which are not based on these which I have discovered via trial and error. I am a fan of Alan Olivers work which incorporates both these.

All the best


STONER
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stoner said:
You didn't read my posts very carefully kennas did you?
Click to expand...
Ah, sorry,

It's just that this comment had a XAO chart attached to it:
stoner said:
The key date was 30th October and the low came in one day earelier than expected. Let's see if this pattern continues to surprise the bears, if anything for at leats the next week.

All the best

STONER
Click to expand...

And, I assumed this comment meant that you too were commenting on the XAO.

stoner said:
Chops are must

What’s the point you trying to make? This is the XAO Analysis thread isn’t it?

STONER
Click to expand...

Apologies,

kennas
 
Re: XAO Analysis

bit of bargain hunting amid the smalls today?
[XAO] 3,915.800 -41.500 -1%
[XJO] 3,951.500 -49.600 -1.2%

and update:
[XAO] 3,925.500 -31.800 -0.8%
[XJO] 3,961.400 -39.700 -1%
ASX 50 [XFL] 4,008.700 -51.800 -1.3%
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I was thought downward wave 3 was over and wave 4 had begun, but it seems as though the market is going back down, even with the Dow heading up over night!
I was going to enter the market today with BHP and WPL as they seem to follow the XAO closely (and they did!), but they both headed down too...

 

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Re: XAO Analysis

XAO - direction up, down, or sideways?

Depends on what timeframe you are looking at!!!

Best trades - using confluence between multi timeframes (say 3)

When ALL three time frames are in alignment - bingo, you have a high probability trade!

Trend direction - you can't beat Dow theory

Best indication of a likely move - congestion (low volatility - narrow Bollinger Bands) or a candlestick reversal signal (depending where it appears)
Always wait for confirmation

Entry - no ifs, buts or maybe, price must break some form of support/resistance
Exit - depends on your risk tolerance
usually some prior support / resistance level
could be an indicator signaling a weakening of trend
could be a price range / volume signal
etc, etc

Peter
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Ah, sorry,

It's just that this comment had a XAO chart attached to it:


And, I assumed this comment meant that you too were commenting on the XAO.



Apologies,

kennas
Click to expand...

Fair enough, I will look for another thread or site which is more relevant to US markets.

Sorry for posting irrelevant content in this thread
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stoner said:
Fair enough, I will look for another thread or site which is more relevant to US markets.

Sorry for posting irrelevant content in this thread
Click to expand...
Well, there are a few EW threads, and there are US index threads.

If you are only going to talk EW and US, then logically that's where your posts should be.

However, some people also think that the XAO correlates to the DJI and S&P, depending on the significance of the move. So your comments may have some relevance here.

I'm sure everyone here would be interested in some well measured commentary on EW and it's application to the S&P no matter what.

But, being critical about someone for not discussing the XAO in this thread seems quite the paradox.



Cheers.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

BBand said:
Trend direction - you can't beat Dow theory

Best indication of a likely move - congestion (low volatility - narrow Bollinger Bands) or a candlestick reversal signal (depending where it appears)
Click to expand...

Wow, what a cue for me to make an entry again.

DOW Morning Star still in tact supporting notion the bottom is in for the US. The other two I mentioned probably weren't strictly morning stars.

The XAO hourly chart is looking like it will make 4000 at least.

The USDX recovery started off with a morning star as did the Spot Gold run end with an Evening Star.

The USD/JPY has a good Morning Star bottom which supports the notion that the USDX is on the way down again.

The AUD/USD has a good Morning Star supporting that notion.

The bottom line... commodities probably bottomed too with big funds just about done with their liquidating assets to meet cash commitments, so all the signs suggesting some cash may come back into our market and keep the XAO going.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well there's parts of Asia that are feeling a little bullish.

Second day in a row the Kospi has gone 10% limit up.

It must have been feeling like it had some ground to make up..
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
But, being critical about someone for not discussing the XAO in this thread seems quite the paradox.



Cheers.
Click to expand...

To be honest I still have no idea what the individual in question was discussing.



Please let's just leave it at that

STONER
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Did everyone notice the volume spikes on most ASX 100 stocks on close?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Does that just mean that those buyers are confident of a positive open on monday???
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Lukeyz said:
Does that just mean that those buyers are confident of a positive open on monday???
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it probably does mean the buyers are that way disposed but without a price and volume spike together it probably also means the sellers are conversely disposed to a negative open on monday
 
Re: XAO Analysis

End of month rebalancing probably. Could be also because a lot of US hedge funds use Oct31 as end of FY or quarter.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Just a minor hesitation on W4, up to 4300 and then down to 3400 is my
 

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