XAO Technical Analysis

[Grinder]

Re: XAO Analysis

yeah but that dont makea da moola !! ... big jump on the dow usually leads to a big jump on open here .. too late 70% of the time to actually enter and make a quid , the idea is to enter before the jump and sell into the strength hence all the guesswork BEFORE the fact.......just my 2 cents

like entering an hour before the market closed yesterday, when there were indicators that there could be a bounce today.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

whats the current count for you wavers out there?

Longer Term XAO posted yesterday https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175

S&P500 Longer Term https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307

Haven't looked at short term XAO yet, but around 4400 looks like a reasonable target area - probably a zig-zag pattern to get there. If anyone is interested, I'm happy to post the very short term wave pattern for the S&P500 wave iv triangle scenario (all session data)

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

Longer Term XAO posted yesterday https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175

S&P500 Longer Term https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307

Haven't looked at short term XAO yet, but around 4400 looks like a reasonable target area - probably a zig-zag pattern to get there. If anyone is interested, I'm happy to post the very short term wave pattern for the S&P500 wave iv triangle scenario (all session data)

cheers, does that mean the XAO may finish as low as 1500?

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just like my tiger rock worked a treat in stopping me being eaten by a tiger overnight.

Haha brilliant, I usually find sleeping with a red sock on left foot usually works for that one.

 

[stoner]

Re: XAO Analysis

whats the current count for you wavers out there?

Refer to charts for XAO and SP500 as follows:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354305&postcount=5317


I posted these charts last weekend, and they vary from OWG's. My analysis says the low in the SP500 occured 10th October (Supercycle wave A). The B wave upward rally started after 10th October and we have been in that since, but is more significant now after the rejection of the 10th Ocotober lows.

It's bery interesting at this juncture. The DJIA decline is almost as much in % terms as the crash of 29 and Nasdaq initial crash decline. Both these saw an upward rally retracing approximately 50% of the losses in almost the same amount of time it took for the decline. The nasty wave C that follows as stated in earlier posts is the killer. But for now BULLISH.

Had the ALL Ordinaries finishing this decline this week as evidenced in the numbering of the EW chart. Whether that will be right or wrong, not sure.

Will see what the market throws at us in the coming weeks chaps.

All the best

STONER

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

thanks for all discussions , analysis , arguments , humour and all other spects you luverly bunch bring to the table , i have a problem keeping within the posting guidlines and a little slow on the uptake in that dept so will bid you farewll and lurk in the shadows instead

thanks for your genorosity

cheers an illiterate nun

 

[amory]

Re: XAO Analysis

like entering an hour before the market closed yesterday, when there were indicators that there could be a bounce today.

interesting observation, Grinder! this brings me to ...

(c) [refer my preceding post for (a) & (b) ... there ARE times when our market is actually able to anticipate the DowJones. example: suppose a major event takes place overseas, during our trading session but well ahead of tonite's Dow. the kind of thing that is absolutely certain to take the Dow DOWN or UP. eg a terrorist attack, or some good news re interest rates or the war is over, something like that. evidently the Dow can't do a thing becoz its not trading yet, but we are!! so we can act ahead of the Dow.

the exception, not the rule! mind you, I don't know WHY there would have been indicators last night such as you are mentioning, but sometimes people with their ear to the ground & the right kind of contacts overseas are able to anticipate better than you & I can do.

technically one might add, a bounce was of course long overdue. but that is insufficient basis for the commitment of money, on a hunch as it were.

Enter the Dow.

 

[amory]

Re: XAO Analysis

Longer Term XAO posted yesterday https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175

S&P500 Longer Term https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307

Haven't looked at short term XAO yet, but around 4400 looks like a reasonable target area - probably a zig-zag pattern to get there. If anyone is interested, I'm happy to post the very short term wave pattern for the S&P500 wave iv triangle scenario (all session data)

that's not a very cheerful outlook! looking years ahead ... I didn't even know one could do that ... & disregarding the various fluctuations, but 4400 is the absolute top, is that correct? am I reading the chart correctly?

bearing in mind that it's barely a month ago the XAO first fell below that. I mean isn't there any room for recovery in the medium term? considering that EW chartists usually plot in a variety of probabilities, and one of them more often than not turns out to be right.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

thanks for all discussions , analysis , arguments , humour and all other spects you luverly bunch bring to the table , i have a problem keeping within the posting guidlines and a little slow on the uptake in that dept so will bid you farewll and lurk in the shadows instead

thanks for your genorosity

cheers an illiterate nun

sincerely disappointed to see that nun - appreciated your posts - we can all drift out of guidelines at times: know you will continue to do well despite not winning the ASF best 'within guidelines' poster award. Matter of fact don't think I will win it either.
cheerz
yes I know:topic

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is my personal problem with EW. Long-term targets.

Fundamentals obviously (at least I think it is plain obvious), drive long-term markets, not market psychology. So I don't see how technical analysis (or a form of it - EW), can possibly predict such a thing or how some believe it can. Years out? WHO KNOWS how the crowd will behave, will the crisis flush itself out or not? That will be seen with time, not psychology. It is the short-term interpretations of immediate fundamental news or interpretation of future fundamentals, which can be traded effectively IMVHO.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

But for now BULLISH.

Had the ALL Ordinaries finishing this decline this week as evidenced in the numbering of the EW chart. Whether that will be right or wrong, not sure.

STONER

Hi Stoner,
subject as you say to this week confirming, we have ending down wave confluence of:
wave c
wave C
wave (a) (the biggie)
surely if EW is worth the effort, this is what it is all about and the call should be "i'm all in" rather than a timid "But for now BULLISH"??
and could you clarify bullish expectations,
is it ST bullish (a week or two)
or MT bullish ( 6-12months)?
I gather its MT, or the 50% bear exhaustion break up?

 

[stoner]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Stoner,
subject as you say to this week confirming, we have ending down wave confluence of:
wave c
wave C
wave (a) (the biggie)
surely if EW is worth the effort, this is what it is all about and the call should be "i'm all in" rather than a timid "But for now BULLISH"??
and could you clarify bullish expectations,
is it ST bullish (a week or two)
or MT bullish ( 6-12months)?
I gather its MT, or the 50% bear exhaustion break up?

Hi treefrog,

I went long 2 days ago, refer to the following post:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354619&postcount=5326


As stated in that post, I am long Dec calls. This is not a long term trade.

To answer your questions. I had a turn date for my wave count. (Oh.... and I don't try to be an expert at EW... I am definately a begginer). That turn date was the 30th October however these do come early or late sometimes. I am not going to delve into how and way I arrived at this date, suffice to say the next one is on 7th November. I am bullish at least till then.

As mentioned earlier I am present assuming this decline has completed and that a good rally has started. I used the crash of 29 and Nasdaq as examples to this. For now, I am only worried about navigating my trades with a bullish stance into the next week. I am not gonna say what is gonna happen long term because I have no bloody idea like everybody else here. Even if I did , I would not be game enough to stick my neck out here.

MRC.

This is my opinion regarding fundementals. They don't drive the market. People do the buying and selling in the market, and peoples perceptions of the fundementals is what drives the market. That perception is not always logical is it?

All the best

STONER

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is my personal problem with EW. Long-term targets.

Fundamentals obviously (at least I think it is plain obvious), drive long-term markets, not market psychology. So I don't see how technical analysis (or a form of it - EW), can possibly predict such a thing or how some believe it can. Years out? WHO KNOWS how the crowd will behave, will the crisis flush itself out or not? That will be seen with time, not psychology. It is the short-term interpretations of immediate fundamental news or interpretation of future fundamentals, which can be traded effectively IMVHO.

Elliott or any other analysis doesnt predict whare a market will go.
All it does is give levels where the market could go.
These are areas of interest to the analyst until proven or disproven.
They represent possible entry and exit points nothing more.

Fundamental analysis is NO different.
If you listen to CNN views change almost hrly!
I would be interested in your practical implementation of your fundamental philosophy! In the short or long term.

 

[Grinder]

Re: XAO Analysis

interesting observation, Grinder! this brings me to ...

(c) [refer my preceding post for (a) & (b) ... there ARE times when our market is actually able to anticipate the DowJones. example: suppose a major event takes place overseas, during our trading session but well ahead of tonite's Dow. the kind of thing that is absolutely certain to take the Dow DOWN or UP. eg a terrorist attack, or some good news re interest rates or the war is over, something like that. evidently the Dow can't do a thing becoz its not trading yet, but we are!! so we can act ahead of the Dow.

the exception, not the rule! mind you, I don't know WHY there would have been indicators last night such as you are mentioning, but sometimes people with their ear to the ground & the right kind of contacts overseas are able to anticipate better than you & I can do.

technically one might add, a bounce was of course long overdue. but that is insufficient basis for the commitment of money, on a hunch as it were.

Enter the Dow.

The only indicators I considered, whether they be deemed indicators or not; was the reaction of the overseas markets late in the day, how the AUS market reacted to this, news at play and the direction of the US futures. Ofcourse you would'nt commit funds to this type of speculation, there are too many external variables at play. However, if you were looking to make a play it's equally as credible as any other 'analysis' Im seeing in this emotion filled market. DYOR

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC.

This is my opinion regarding fundementals. They don't drive the market. People do the buying and selling in the market, and peoples perceptions of the fundementals is what drives the market. That perception is not always logical is it?

All the best

STONER

Stoner and Tech,

Peoples perceptions of fundamentals are currently negative. So what happens if positive news comes out, if banks start becoming profitable in the next 18 months and China resumes growth? What is the point of your 2 year + analysis? It is based on waves of crowd behaviour right? But that will CONSIDERABLY alter over time, the longer the timeframe, the further that will alter. Fundamentals drive markets in the long-run, regardless of what anybody says. It is plain obvious. So why has the stock market risen in the US throughout a boom period and fallen throughout a recession?

Pretty obvious. Not because of perceptions which can only be traded short-term IMHO, especially when it comes to application.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: XAO Analysis

Its like a 'reversion to the mean' with long term fundamentals. Over short and medium terms cos prices are above or below 'fair value' but in the longer term they seem to average out.

I have to agree with MRC, I dont see how TA can forecast crowd behaivour years in advance

 

[frenzel]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is it possible with lots of people trading on TA and using software tools, that it becomes in itself a self fulfilling prophecy? At least to some extent?

On a slight aside, the Fed are currently in a 2-3 day meeting on their next rate move. Looking at the Dow chart, things strangely rocketed toward the end of the day. Now I don't know why, as there were no major stories that I know of. But is it possible that some news has leaked out about the Feds next move to some major players.

Announcement tomorrow US time I think, so if it is good news and made public, then could see another good run tomorrow. Just a theory though.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Fundamentals

are what is thought

Sentiment

is what is felt

Technicals
are a measure of what is
actually done..

In the Beginning was the deed
thought and feelings
then follow
along with rationalizations
.....

markets go up so they can go down
on all scales..

How fine do you want to pick the bottom ?
means to what degree you follow
the waves that build

down to "dead centre"

eg YOU can not get a bull market
till there is an UP fractal

ie the red line crosses the blue

so waiting till even then is OK ( or even later
till it has moved sideways as far it moves downwards ( need foundation) etc etc )

or follow waves
tease apart Price Volume Time
down to the tic that matters

Identify After
do not predict before
but always anticipate

that upside count is not really there
and maybe becomes a downside count

It does not exist until it is activated.


motorway

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Motorway your P&F chart seems to suggest the XAO has about bottomed bottomed out on the trend line...

Markets always Overshoot
ALWAYS

because of expectancies

We price what we think will happen tomorrow TODAY

Such that tomorrows actual price is different

Wait for a clear bottom
A Sign of Strength
and a CLEAR --LAST POINT OF SUPPORT

A clear Jump over the flow of supply
( a sign that "they" have all the stocks and a panic is impossible )

IF ( big IF ) we shoot under the same the top shot over

here is that chart atm (all is flux though )

"They"

use Price NEWS and time to manipulate
so the best laid plans are always undone

whose plans ?
Who is manipulated ?


of those who it is said
will never see "it" go up until after they sell.

The only thing that can tell us when that last point of support comes
is the tape... what is done , the deeds..

motorway

 

[sam76]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sometimes I really hate our market's position within the global time frame.

Are we celebrating yesterday or fearing tomorrow?

can't catch a break either way!