XAO Technical Analysis

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Oh MY GOD!!

This is exactly what I am talking about. This is the XJO chandles with the real open. This is what traders use who play gaps. not the muppet chandle charts that you have. your chart is like I said Rubbish for gaps.

They happen every day.

In case you hadn't noticed TH my post and this thread particularly relates to the XAO.

I don't give a rat's **** what you trade or want to talk about. My post was in relation to trend analysis of the XAO.

Comparing the XAO to the XJO is like saying a holden is a falcon. Stupid!

Just because you have a hell of an ego and thick skull... I'll emphasise again... I was refering to trend analysis on the XAO, the recognised main trend indicator of the Aus market... absolutely nothing to do with the prefered tool or otherwise that you want or prefer to trade.

Do you get that TH. It's about trend analysis of the XAO... NOT ABOUT YOUR SELF IMPORTANCE.

And NO, they do not happen every day on the XAO.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO pretty much = XJO

The chart TH has is a proper gap chart as it gets around the staggered opening problem. It takes the opening prices of all the stocks and calculates the theoretical open.

Staggered openings just mean that if the total market weight of A-C stocks open extremely high or low; AND continue moving (and all the other D-Z gap the same way and the momentum continues...), we'll get a gap.

XAO Charts:
We have a gap around 6000 from June cause the overnight session was terrible...

and how about that gap at 3220 from Dec03. Will that get filled too?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

In case you hadn't noticed TH my post and this thread particularly relates to the XAO.

I don't give a rat's **** what you trade or want to talk about. My post was in relation to trend analysis of the XAO.

Comparing the XAO to the XJO is like saying a holden is a falcon. Stupid!

You have to be kidding. They are like skyQuake has said,

XAO pretty much = XJO

Just because you have a hell of an ego and thick skull... I'll emphasise again... I was refering to trend analysis on the XAO, the recognised main trend indicator of the Aus market... absolutely nothing to do with the prefered tool or otherwise that you want or prefer to trade.

Do you get that TH. It's about trend analysis of the XAO... NOT ABOUT YOUR SELF IMPORTANCE.

And NO, they do not happen every day on the XAO.

You are SO wrong.

They do. Get the data and calculate it for yourself. The open you are using is opening data for stocks A-B. Not the opening of the XAO.

I will state it again. You candle chart is rubbish for analysing gaps for the XAO. They happen ALL the time.

Nearly as often as you post incorrect, uniformed, untested and plain wrong "analysis".

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

I will state it again. You candle chart is rubbish for anaylsising gaps for the XAO. They happen ALL the time.

Nearly as often as you post incorrect, uniformed, untested and plain wrong "analysis".

I vehemently disagree, they couldn't possibly happen that often.

 

[roland]

Re: XAO Analysis

I know nothing in comparison to most here, so take it easy, but it seems to me that the ASX is so heavily effected by DOW movements that looking at the Australian charts would almost be meaningless.

If you wake up tomorrow and the DOW has lost 15%, we will fall, likewise, if there is a massive, massive rally in the US we will also probably go along with it.

I agree that when everything is calmer our individual stocks have some independence, but at the moment I feel like everyone is waiting to see what is happening overseas, more than here.

Anyway, just my .0001c

Hi shaunQ, I used to have the same beliefs that we fall out of some mindless following of the US markets. But you know, the US markets fall or rise based on the news or events that are related to the investment world - meaning that the DOW falls because of some event, news, financial data, fed announcements etc. The US has such a global financial impact that whatever news causes the US to shift will most likely shift the AU financials as well.

So in essence, we don't follow the DOW as such, but are certainly affected by the same news.

Correct me if I am wrong guys ....

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

Stoner,

Yes, I have no TA or FA reason to think anything different but I just have a gut-level feeling a rally is not far off. Considering one small long position. Will enter or not near close. Depends.

Well, I didn't enter long. Didn't look right with US futures falling and XAO softening through the arvo.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

With the XAO opening in a staggered format until about 10:15am (or thereabouts) then this would most likely not incur gaps on the index because of the incremental opening. Hence a reasonable gap on the open does indicate volatile market action.

Quite the point, Oz WaveGuy.

Rarely have I found that the intra day action doesn't fill any opening gap on the XAO.

On individual stocks it's a good indicator for a swing trade especially when the gap isn't filled intraday and leaves the gap between the daily candles/bars, but because I've not noticed it before on the XAO, curious to see how significant it will be.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

The chart TH has is a proper gap chart as it gets around the staggered opening problem. It takes the opening prices of all the stocks and calculates the theoretical open.

Staggered openings just mean that if the total market weight of A-C stocks open extremely high or low; AND continue moving (and all the other D-Z gap the same way and the momentum continues...), we'll get a gap.

Yes, I know how the market opens in a stagger skyQuake, and I also get "It takes the opening prices of all the stocks and calculates the theoretical open."

But in 'actually' trading stocks not indicies... that is irrelevant to the XAO.

XAO pretty much = XJO

The XJO = S&P/ASX 200 = 3809.2

The XAO = ALL ORDINARIES = 3768.3

But I sota know the point you're trying to make, but it's irrelevant to my original point about gaps between the daily candles of the XAO.

XAO Charts:
We have a gap around 6000 from June cause the overnight session was terrible...

and how about that gap at 3220 from Dec03. Will that get filled too?

Not sure about these mate... checked Bigcharts and Incredible charts and cannot find that gap on either of them either. Do you have a possible explination?

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

.

So, fibinacci is good and true but candle formation and gaps are not!!??
You will have to excuse me for not replying with the same mindless insults and 'attempted' ridicule.
But you might like to explain the all powerful and true aspects of fibinacci as opposed to candle formations and gaps.

whiskers, you were the one who went way out on a limb about the high reliability of a reversal with the morning stars on the indexes - I posted the reseach which showed it nonsense - it was your choice to emphatically reject that info. As you have had a multitude of stabs at a turn I think I was entitled to point out that it didn't happen, again! I accept your criticism that it was in a mindless insult.
However, it is almost a certainty that one of your future reversal posts will prove correct.
WRT fib analysis; thanks but no thanks. I will not add to the tedious and often repetitive TA detail that is posted on this thread when there are several other specific threads for that.
And besides, if I posted fib analysis info, we would have the Elliot Wavers adding it in and calling it theirs - EW6 v2.5 or such.
Fib "all powerful and true"? no, never said that. But having traded gaps, candles and fib in normal markets, have had best roi of those with fib.
Is this a normal market? Nope.
Is TA workable in it? depends how quickly we adapt.
Is it as TH suggests "nonsense"? Almost, - a lot is over-run by, in wave terms - the 'dumpers' we are getting at present.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

You have to be kidding. They are like skyQuake has said,

Refer to above post.

You are SO wrong.

They do. Get the data and calculate it for yourself. The open you are using is opening data for stocks A-B. Not the opening of the XAO.

It is the one and the same. That is the nature of the XAO. If the computers could handle all trades instantaniously they would, but they can't and that's just how it works everyday, regular as clockwork.

Of course the first stocks to open trading are A, B, C etc... and those trades are adjusted according to the opening proceedure for calculating the price of each particular stock. Those prices then stand as do the one's 10 minutes later for X, Y and Z stocks.

None of those stock trade prices are again later averaged and adjusted after all open trades have been processed to any theoritical opening price of the XAO.

It's a dynamic index and if sentiment changes based on the result of the A and B trades thats how it stays. Similarly with the closing prices.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I accept your criticism that it was in a mindless insult.

Thank you.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers do you or have you ever seen Live Dynamic quoting of the XAO. Have you seen how the open price is even quoted? the very First tick of the day?

It would seem not. If you did you would see that it's completely fanciful as to what is actually happening on the open. even for the A-B opening prices.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's a dynamic index and if sentiment changes based on the result of the A and B trades thats how it stays. Similarly with the closing prices.

FYI

Its Actually not quoted Dynamically Its quoted Live snapshot every 30 seconds.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

And besides, if I posted fib analysis info, we would have the Elliot Wavers adding it in and calling it theirs

Nothing new to Elliott exponents Fib has always been a companion component of Wave analysis.Its how extensions and retracements are measured always has been.

Id be interested in treefrogs "Fib analysis info".Particularly in how he uses it in his trading.

Oh and on Gaps.
Breakaway gaps wont get filled.
Not all gaps get filled.

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers, quit while you are behind.

I have no prediction as such but do enjoy reading this thread as i feel i can learn a little here and there and it's good for a laugh also.

You have repeatedly said you are learning EW, yet mostly when anyone who is more experienced than you offers you advice on your predictions, you immediately look to prove them wrong and attempt to validate your predictions rather than considering their opinions and experienced advice.

You have been wrong so many times on this thread and others yet when you do get something right you smugly pronounce it to the world.

You complain about being insulted but have you considered why people insult you and not others? (The answer is above)

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally enjoy whiskers posts right or wrong and at least he willing to stick his neck out and make a call

i dont follow anyones calls here and suggest if people are using ppls analysis here as gospel then perhaps they in the wrong game

keep em coming whiskers and all others that give it a go and aint this place for sharing views of how ya see things anyways ?

you will notice i didnt say i agree with said analysis and that goes with most ppls views here with the odd exceptions who i would be silly to ignore what they point out as time has proven they are more correct than incorrect .

thanks for ALL views here

 

[$20shoes]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hmmm, I'm glad Whiskers is deflecting attention away from my latest analysis..good on ya' Whiskers..But I did state that I'm using weekly data...I still have 4 trading days before possibly being wrong beyond a shadow of a doubt ...though one never truly knows, until it comes to pass.

Let's not forget that we are all at varying stages of knowledge and all use different methods and disciplines (some of us use no discipline apparently). I certainly consider myself as being in the formative stages and glean a lot from more experienced posters here. But I'd hate to be taken to task so harshly by those I consider mentors. It would probably stop me posting ( I know there's an opening here, but please refrain...lol). Teachers who berate don't make for very good teachers. And to an extent, that is an unspoken role some of you have here - whether you want it or not.
Students - if you hand in your homework, you should expect some red-ink corrections. Take it graciously...learn from it.

Agree that if you are going to stick your cohunas out there, you deserve to cop a bit of heat. But sometimes you guys are gleefully pouring Dencorub all over those bad boys...(its not a nice experience, trust me...can't really say too much more on this subject).

Anyway, I'm off my soapbox now...And remember kids, the world really is wonderful.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

Nothing new to Elliott exponents Fib has always been a companion component of Wave analysis.Its how extensions and retracements are measured always has been.
Id be interested in treefrogs "Fib analysis info".Particularly in how he uses it in his trading.

tech,
it was Boggo who posted the original 3250 fib target (posts#5119 and 5120)
bankit agreed (#5122) and reinforced.
Skyquake (#5123) and logique concurred.
can get the basic idea of fib clusters/confluence from these posts (enough to get you into trouble anyway)
All I did was concur that fib confluence is building strongly at this level as pointed out by bankit.
Yes, rudimentary fib is used in EW but not the more reliable (imo) confluence/cluster analysis referred to here.
There are salesmen out there who will sell you courses and books on it - some "free" stuff designed to suck you in and take your loot (just like the EW sites) is www.fibnodes.com/index.asp - (di napoli system)
In a nutshell - the 3250 level is worth bearing in mind - only 550 more points to go.
Will it go straight there or get there after a (b) upleg and final (c) leg, or not at all??? - as always just trade what is there not what you expect or hope for.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

Praise be to QGC (with some assistance by BHP) for lifting the All Ords out of its mid-day slump...

QGC up near +80% with trades worth $AU650million+ for the day - approx. twice the value of BHP.

XAO might benefit tomorrow from another mass sale by QGC holders?


aj

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

FYI

Its Actually not quoted Dynamically Its quoted Live snapshot every 30 seconds.

Is it true through Reuters I think it was, you can get it quicker than every 30 secs? Thought I heard that the other day. Would be useful, time is of the essence on cash lately when the futs are trying to push it to new lows.