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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Ageo said:
And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?

It borrow's a little more..........
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No it's not!

There's so many big numbers floating around the mass media at the moment because they make great headlines. They won't need to borrow a thing unless something goes wrong.

Take the German bail out for example - €500b was in the headlines... but if you look into it €420b was to guarantee interbank loans which money they won't need to spend unless a bank goes under. But that is less likely to happen as the main reason banks are going under is they're too afraid to lend to each other which won't be an issue if loans are govt guaranteed.

The remaining €80b is to be spent on recapitalisations. It probably will mean more debt, but it'll buy equity for tax payers at what is arguably firesale prices.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just wondering how many jumped into various stocks yesterday morning, a few red lines and red faces around after that little sucker run I would think :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
J,
there have been a few interviews with banker heavies of late and hard to recall exactly but I think stewart (NAB ceo and ABA exec) was saying the guaranteeing was needed because the overseas market was telling the Oz banks 'yep, good banking system mate, one of the best around with solid returns but the funds we invest/loan you are not gov. guaranteed so we will go elsewhere for now' and they were not able to get a reasonable share of available loot.
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Thanks for that, treefrog. Makes sense.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
Just wondering how many jumped into various stocks yesterday morning, a few red lines and red faces around after that little sucker run I would think :2twocents
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Need to qualify the perspective I think Boggo.

Maybe it depends on your time frame. If you have a 'long term' perspective, then between 3000 and 4000 seems to be a good opportunity. Some analysts were calling 'once in a generation' buying opportunity under 4200 (sorry no reference), but there's others calling 3400 ish as a bottom, so take your pick and time frame.

Is it timing, or time in? :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Is it timing, or time in? :confused:
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Love this one Kenna's

A Financial Adviser friend of mine used (Past tense) this line all the time.

I gave him one of Radges.
"Being wrong is OK
Its how long your wrong that will determine success or failure"
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Love this one Kenna's

A Financial Adviser friend of mine used (Past tense) this line all the time.

I gave him one of Radges.
"Being wrong is OK
Its how long your wrong that will determine success or failure"
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Yes, I still have faith in my financial advisor who believes that it's time in, not timing, but he also believes in taking profits off the table and protecting capital.

He's been a much much larger grizzly bear than WayneL for at least 3 years.

Can they exist together? :confused:

I hope that I have bridged the gap, but I am way off highs experienced in April when some specific specs went balistic ...

Couldn't trade it because I was trying not to be killed in Venezuela at the time....

Anyway, I think we might be around a time where time in is a good approach in the LONG term..

kennas
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Lets start taking the predictions for tommorrow guys.

Right now the DOW is down on evernight trading by 78 points. XAO always follows the DOW blindly. I cant wait for the day when it will oneday break free.

Any way im thinking it will be a red day tm but just not sure how red.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cartel31 said:
Right now the DOW is down on evernight trading by 78 points. XAO always follows the DOW blindly. I cant wait for the day when it will oneday break free.
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And I cannot wait for the day when people actually observe what happens and learn rather than making comments like that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
And I cannot wait for the day when people actually observe what happens and learn rather than making comments like that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I certainly hope not! You may be rich and retired but then we have do deal with *gasp* a rational market :(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Yes, I still have faith in my financial advisor who believes that it's time in, not timing, but he also believes in taking profits off the table and protecting capital.
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I honestly think anyone who says that, has never seen a severe correction. They may have seen the small corrections which were too hard to pick, and by the time you saw the trend change, most of it had worked its way out... BUt when the market corrects 20, 30, 40, 80%, anyone who says "Don't worry, time will fix it!" all the way down, needs to have their FSL revoked.

Would anyone who bought Japan stocks or property in the 1980s say "I'm not concerned about the last 30 years, if I hold these till my great grandchildren are 18, they'll turn a great profit"?

Would anyone who went all in the day before black tuesday say that? Before the tech bubble burst? Who borrowed 1 million dollars to dump into shares based super last year?

The reason financial advisors say it's time in, not timing, is to cover their own rears. You can't pick the very bottom or the very top of anything, but the market does move in trends. If you hold onto a trend too long the wrong direction, then I feel you're incompetent, not just using the "Time in" theory.

The first time I hear "This time it's different"/"It's a new paradigm, the fundamentals have changed"/"There won't be a reversion to the mean", I know it's time to get out of the market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I honestly think anyone who says that, has never seen a severe correction.
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Yes he has.

Part of taking some off the table is to reallocate assets and weight yourself to the classes you believe will outperform. Like cash for example, or being short. That is being in the market.

Even Faber and Rogers have been in the market the past year.

Sorry if I've misrepresented what I meant.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Going to be ugly today.

We are now going to see the low of 10/10/08 tested in the next few days.
If this holds we could then see a period of consolidation.
We may also see (If the low holds) a higher low made,inducating some stability.

A fall straight through the low and we see the next stop 3300 ish
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

With BHP down 17% on NYSE and XJO being heavily weighted by BHP, quite possible the low will be broken. Based on current commodity prices, the resource stocks seem quite overpriced.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Like cash for example, or being short. That is being in the market.
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Fair enough. I accept that. However, in a time like this when people move from "speculative stocks" to "Defensive stocks" (which have lost 40% from peak and are likely to keep losing this morning), then I think that's real rear covering. Smart money would have moved out. Really smart money would have shorted.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tex.willer said:
With BHP down 17% on NYSE and XJO being heavily weighted by BHP, quite possible the low will be broken. Based on current commodity prices, the resource stocks seem quite overpriced.
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BHP in AUD terms is down 10.51% @ $26.58 from US close
 
Re: XAO Analysis

well, 10% falls don't mean as much any more since I am only losing 10% value of my remaining 40% - gets to a point where I just don't really care anymore
 
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