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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

"We've had a nice snapback rally in stocks today as we got that favorable piece of news about the investments in the banks," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at Morgan Asset Management, in Birmingham, Alabama.

"But these gains, this momentum, may not be sustainable. We'll see what happens tomorrow when the bond market reopens."

:batman:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

That's my feel as well, and it seems fairly unanimous here... But we're small time investors. Even all of us together, are not going to make a dent into amount of movement hedge funds and institutional investors make. I just hope that the institutional investors feel the same way.

My money is on that they do...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
Nyden, I feel similarly. I've been waiting for the initial excitement to die off and as it does, the shares I'm looking at are falling off their early highs often to below their open prices. Test will be this arvo and close. But in my book this is the bear market version of a "correction" in a bull market. Nothing has really changed so far in the credit markets to my knowledge.
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As they said this morning on the news - "Stock Markets welcomed the news(coordinated actions etc), while credit markets hardly buldged."

These high jumps make me nervous at the current stage, more nervous than the big drops, seing there is not short selling even for hedging purposes once you get in at his inflated for the current situation price, there is nothing you can do when it starts falling but to ride it or sell it............. both not very profitable options:confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

it is not easy trying to read a lot into today's XAO ... except it has duly followed the Dow on up.

merely that the rubber band was vastly overstretched into oversold. now that it has slackened a little, how is one to guess whereto from here?

it will take a few more days before a new trend emerges, in whichever direction of its choice. no doubt about the Fed: time & again they've rescued the dollar from a horrible fate. I've been using this argument many times in the past, to explain why Gold hasn't got much of a chance. but this would be the closest shave the US economy has had, & once again the Fed pulled a rabbit out of its hat. you want to never underestimate uncle Sam!

after last night's mighty leap forward, a reaction could be on the cards. my guess is, caution & some liquidity is still indicated.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Yes, but surely yesterdays rally didn't factor in an 11% gain? Where's the frenzy? Perhaps the fact that there is no frenzy is a good sign though :eek:
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Might have been a bigger % up if we had the additional buying of short sellers covering (buying to close their positions) ... :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hearing the general talk about stock markets in my office, it seems the general public opinion at the moment is that stocks are going back up and they've missed out on their chance for bargains, whereas last week they were all in a mad panic to switch their super to cash.

Gives a fair indication of why things are happening the way they are I think. Especially the rise today, I don't think it has anything to do with anything but the price.

So today and yesterday is everybody panicking and buying in to make sure they don't miss out on the bottom.

Next move is something will happen, ie, a drop in the DOW, another collapse, and everybody who bought in these last couple of days will realise the all ords isn't going to bounce back to 6800 over night and they'll sell madly again.

Because they lost all their money in this next big crash that will happen, they probably won't buy for a very long time, in which case will see a true bottom, where it will stay for quite a while.

I have no idea when/if this will happen but we'll see..:2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

After being pessimistic for so long now, it's hard not to remain so. Even after today's rise it seems that it really never gets there. Like others I am holding on to some pretty heavy percentage losses and out of the trading game.

Big rises like today only start to lick at my boots, need around 3 of these for me to free up some capital.

Now to see if the bungie zips her back in the other direction.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

roland said:
After being pessimistic for so long now, it's hard not to remain so. Even after today's rise it seems that it really never gets there. Like others I am holding on to some pretty heavy percentage losses and out of the trading game.

Big rises like today only start to lick at my boots, need around 3 of these for me to free up some capital.

Now to see if the bungie zips her back in the other direction.
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I agree. I think too many people have been burnt for the past year now to just all of a sudden jump back in and think everything's A-OK again. We have had bounces like this before, think January of this year, and we've headed much lower since then, and problems have gotten much worse since then too. So what makes it different now?

I used to trade regularly but it's more of a 'wait and see' approach now, and has been for the past year. Too many wild swings up, then just as fast down. When some stability returns, the market will continue to go up. Until then, it's a day traders market and you need tight stop losses otherwise that loss can quickly liquefy a good portion of your holdings.

Still feeling pessimistic here, and to me, nothing has changed fundamentally except governments across the world have started to acknowledge there actually is a problem. Once things become clearer and start to improve, only then will this once-burnt trader return.

As they say, once burnt, twice shy ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nothing has lasted more then a few days so far and the same will apply here.

The bailout - no effect
!% int drop - no effect

Somehow throwing more money around doesnt impress me and I think the market will agree soon.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The derivative problem still remains.
How to unwind it is the issue.
All the government guarantee's do is cover all deposits.
Thats it.
If you think about it thats not a lot that governments are covering.
They arent covering anything else that banks maybe involved in.

So if a bank goes bust it wears everything else and the deposits are covered by governments.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
The derivative problem still remains.
How to unwind it is the issue.
All the government guarantee's do is cover all deposits.
Thats it.
If you think about it thats not a lot that governments are covering.
They arent covering anything else that banks maybe involved in.

So if a bank goes bust it wears everything else and the deposits are covered by governments.
Click to expand...

It's a bold move aimed at confidence only, it's worked so far but if things hit the fan they wont be able to pay any more than the banks.

It's a bluff really.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MrBurns said:
It's a bold move aimed at confidence only, it's worked so far but if things hit the fan they wont be able to pay any more than the banks.

It's a bluff really.
Click to expand...

bluff or not, it has affected things. in my (very humble) opinion we all have to use these "bluffs" to put ourselves in a better position (or less worse position) with each bump and grind that eventuates
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
The derivative problem still remains.
How to unwind it is the issue.
All the government guarantee's do is cover all deposits.
Thats it.
If you think about it thats not a lot that governments are covering.
They arent covering anything else that banks maybe involved in.

So if a bank goes bust it wears everything else and the deposits are covered by governments.
Click to expand...
I thought they were also covering any interbank lending, i.e. if bank A lends to bank B, then bank B fails to come good with the repayment, then the government will make good the loss to Bank A.
I thought this was the measure designed to get banks lending to one another once again.
Guaranteeing deposit rates has nothing to do with easing the credit stall as far as I can see. This aspect of the promise is clearly designed just to restore confidence amongst the population, was unnecessary in any rational sense, but is justified in that it makes everyone feel more secure.


If my understanding above is wrong, I'm happy for someone to correct me.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

roland said:
After being pessimistic for so long now, it's hard not to remain so. Even after today's rise it seems that it really never gets there. Like others I am holding on to some pretty heavy percentage losses and out of the trading game.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Just to put a figure on it, a good first target would be the support at 4000. Then there is the 50% retracement at 3900. After that is the old resistance levels at around 3500. But the big one is the bottom from back in 2003, which was close to 2700. That's close to a 60% retracement.

I've been out since Feb and although I was tempted to dabble yesterday, I can wait. We should be getting a few dismal profit reports soon...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Agreed. Just to put a figure on it, a good first target would be the support at 4000. Then there is the 50% retracement at 3900. After that is the old resistance levels at around 3500. But the big one is the bottom from back in 2003, which was close to 2700. That's close to a 60% retracement.

I've been out since Feb and although I was tempted to dabble yesterday, I can wait. We should be getting a few dismal profit reports soon...
Click to expand...

Yup. Like you, metinks a lot of Sep Qtr results are going to reveal a general malaise setting in, though I suspect much worse toxic shocks to company bottom lines will be "uncovered" during the Dec Qtr reporting period.

aj
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ageo said:
And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?

It borrow's a little more..........
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It wouldnt be able to that's where the fine print will come in, you'll get in back over 5 years or something like that and if they haven't got it then they'll change the rules again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Julia said:
Guaranteeing deposit rates has nothing to do with easing the credit stall as far as I can see. This aspect of the promise is clearly designed just to restore confidence amongst the population, was unnecessary in any rational sense, but is justified in that it makes everyone feel more secure.
Click to expand...
J,
there have been a few interviews with banker heavies of late and hard to recall exactly but I think stewart (NAB ceo and ABA exec) was saying the guaranteeing was needed because the overseas market was telling the Oz banks 'yep, good banking system mate, one of the best around with solid returns but the funds we invest/loan you are not gov. guaranteed so we will go elsewhere for now' and they were not able to get a reasonable share of available loot.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ageo said:
And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?

It borrow's a little more..........
Click to expand...

Why borrow when you can PRINT $AUBananaBuck$ for nuthin? The U$ and UK GuvMINT$ have led the way by flooding the planet with lot$ of pretty bit$ of confetti to paper over the crack$. $eem$ to have worked a treat with Wall-e$treet $o far..... $oon be able to roll around in bath$full of the $tuff like $crooge McDuck!

:)
 
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