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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

S&P ASX futures currently [size=+1]down -266pts[/size]

$AU [size=+1]down 1.6c to $US .7061[/size]

Not sure last night's SuperUpbeat assessment of the Oz economy by our esteemed Swan Diver can sustain the sliver of green grass that yesterday poked it's head above the blood-stained desert floor.... metinks the on-going credit drought will out the real state of the economy.

How many more smug, smiling "experts" are we going to hear in our media spouting the guvmint line that "she's right mate - the lil' Aussie Bleeder is as fit as a Bondi Iceberg - none of these overseas Tsunamis can touch us".

IMO this tiny, tiny economy is hanging by a thread. In June 2008 according to ABS our Net Foreign Debt To GDP Ratio had grown alarmingly to a whopping 54% (around 43% in 2002 and only 37% in 1996) and to top it off, the June figures showed $AU1.07Trillion of Net Foreign Liabilities. Since those figures, the $AU dollar has plummeted, so the situation now is far, far worse. We have to somehow fund that rapidly growing mountain of Foreign Liabilities with a plummeting dollar!

Sure, we are relatively ok as long as the gold silk thread (trademarked CHINA) doesn't snap. If it does, well - we ain't seen nuthin' yet.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
looks like its gunna rain instead
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you can still make hay when it rains :)

another bounce today with high probability of global rate cuts?

never did I anticipate this much volatility!

Can someone update another VIX chart please? It must be really off the scales by now?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
you can still make hay when it rains :)

another bounce today with high probability of global rate cuts?

never did I anticipate this much volatility!

Can someone update another VIX chart please? It must be really off the scales by now?
Click to expand...

:D gday Korupt and yes .my post was in regards to some other dribble i was posting last night :) rain never stopped play here.

have a great day and enjoy the opportunitys which will definately present themselves around open :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Bring on the CAPITULATION I say. All this hope is doing no good for the markets.

Its been the easiest play in the book, buying the gaps down but this time its different. I want BLOOD.

I want the Talking heads and investment guru's to start to talk about return off capital rather than long term return.

I want two or more really ugly closes instead of strong ones.

We may get that today. I don't think we have the same chance of a strong close. Then again just like Pavlov's dogs I know what the futs traders are going to do, buy the opening dips :rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

TH,

I think you are funny.

Jaithomson,

I've got a great game for you to play.

It is called pin the tail on the donkey.

But it is played on the cliff top.

You go first. I'll put the blindfold on you, spin you around 3 times and if you can place the tail correctly I'll give you a $100.

There is no cost to you whatsoever.

I'll just ease your burden by holding your wallet till you complete the task.

When you have won the first $100, the offer stands open to play as long as you like.:rolleyes:

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
That is unless you get caught... with a short @ 4400..? You would be wanting to find other peoples opinions as to whether the Dow would increase\decrease tonite to try and clear the position, wouldnt you..?
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Man kissed on the @rse by a fairy again. Keep playing with fire and you'll get burnt.

On a more serious note, it will be interesting to see how today plays out.
I'm thinking we'll see some level of panic after last nights action in the US and yesterdays eurphoria at the rate cut, the close today will be telling.

Was watching the Today show this morning and Karl was talking about the interest rate cut and how it could serve as a blueprint for other countries to help stabilise the markets because of yesterdays bounce:confused:, and here I was thinking that the US had already been slashing rates:rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If my name was Jai and I had a short on at 4400 and I had no idea what I was doing Id be COVERING right NOW
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
If my name was Jai and I had a short on at 4400 and I had no idea what I was doing Id be COVERING right NOW
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morning. but your name's John isn't it? bet you didn't expect to find me still around, frankly I didn't either. is that the XJO you are referring to? meaning that the worst is now over?

seeing that we are in uncharted waters, I wouldn't argue with that. but noticed something interesting. contrary to expectation, the leading golds for once decided not to follow the Dow down, but to go up on the strength of a modest rise in the POG. looks to me like they are expecting something important is yet to occur. the only thing I can think of, short of total meltdown is a collapse of the USDollar. if that's on the cards, then anything goes!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

e.g. why not BHP at $25? you wouldn't have to go all that far back on your monthly chart, in fact one might say we are within cooee now! yes those Golds today, sure makes you wonder about the XAO. 4100 to 4200 should do the trick.

which in turn, depends on the course of the DowJones.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Can someone update another VIX chart please? It must be really off the scales by now?[/QUOTE]
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Remember people, it's not 'timing the market', it's 'time in the market'.

Just ask those in the US in 1890 or those who 'invested' in the Nikkei 20 years ago when it was 400% higher than it is today. ;)

Can a whole lot of lazy cliches be thrown out of the window? Or is it time to throw financial planners out the window? Perhaps both.....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The Japanese traders didn't like their sushi for lunch??

They came back from lunch and turned the nasty sell switch on. :D

This close will be interesting .................... I thunk!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
The Japanese traders didn't like their sushi for lunch??

They came back from lunch and turned the nasty sell switch on. :D

This close will be interesting .................... I thunk!!
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4:04pm 10/07/2008


TM 68.54, -4.84, -6.6%) consolidated operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March is expected to decline 40% from its earlier forecast as the global financial crisis dampens global auto demand and higher commodity prices squeeze margins, according to a Japanese media report Wednesday. Toyota's consolidated operating profit is likely to amount to 1.3 trillion yen ($12.9 billion), down from its earlier forecast of 1.6 trillion yen, the Nikkei newspaper reported, without citing its source. The automaker is likely to have trouble achieving its global sales target of 9.5 million units, or about 25 trillion yen, because of falling demand in the U.S. and slower growth in China, the report said. Toyota's North American sales are likely to shrink to under 14 million units, from 16 million units a year earlier. Toyota shares were down 6.2% in late morning Tokyo trading.

could be a a part of it.
 
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