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Re: XAO Analysis
Back on a rally - just blown past the 4700 mark...
Back on a rally - just blown past the 4700 mark...
XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
We failed a recovery rally. Was hoping to see it through but lunchtime killed it.
Financials did ok but market leaders BHP and RIO tanked hard. Don't think this bear market is even close to finished.
Maybe in the coming days or weeks we'll see this break finish up proper.
We failed a recovery rally. Was hoping to see it through but lunchtime killed it.
Financials did ok but market leaders BHP and RIO tanked hard. Don't think this bear market is even close to finished.
Maybe in the coming days or weeks we'll see this break finish up proper.
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Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Re: XAO Analysis
LOL. Up 5% and still an inside day!! :bong: Interesting times we live in. Something to tell the grandkids.
LOL. Up 5% and still an inside day!! :bong: Interesting times we live in. Something to tell the grandkids.
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white_goodman
BOC
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Re: XAO Analysis
how ridiculous, lucky for those who bought yesterday... I personally wouldnt want to hold over tonight tho, you never know with this market
how ridiculous, lucky for those who bought yesterday... I personally wouldnt want to hold over tonight tho, you never know with this market
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Ahhh day trading!
With intraday moves like this (and frequent bloody gaps in the opposite direction), who needs to hold overnight.
Ahhh day trading!
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Shhhh!!:nono:
You will get Nioka banging on about "ethical investment" and not ripping off the system. Wysiswyg about rigged moves. Whiskers about EW seeing into the future and ROE & Freedy2 about it being impossible to make money daytading. And countless others about TA not working anymore.
:behead:
Ahhh day trading!
Shhhh!!:nono:
You will get Nioka banging on about "ethical investment" and not ripping off the system. Wysiswyg about rigged moves. Whiskers about EW seeing into the future and ROE & Freedy2 about it being impossible to make money daytading. And countless others about TA not working anymore.
:behead:
GreatPig
Pigs In Space
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Re: XAO Analysis
The biggest problem with day trading is finding time to do it while you're at work.
GP
The biggest problem with day trading is finding time to do it while you're at work.
GP
white_goodman
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Re: XAO Analysis
ahh the biggest problem is to find time to work whilst day trading
The biggest problem with day trading is finding time to do it while you're at work.
GP
ahh the biggest problem is to find time to work whilst day trading
Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hi OzWaveGuy
As mentioned earlier I'm relatively new to EW, but I've been studying it up mighty hard particularly the last couple of days because I just felt something wasn't right with the larger degree count I adopted from previous Ew'ers more experienced than me.
Since you are the most recent EW posting I'll relate my thoughts to your chart. I originally had my wave (i) or A where you have to make an ABC zig zag pattern (that most were talking about), but I have since changed my mind... partly because B retraces more than 50% of A which seems more like a Flat.
I thought your placement of wave i back in last Oct was not exactly in the right place, ie that it should have been a bit lower down... but then I realised you may be calling a little diag triangle followed by an expanded flat and calling wave v of (i) an impulse for the wave (i) to be an impulse. I'm inclined to see v as an abc, which would make it an (invalid) diag triangle because i and iv don't come within 10% of overlapping. I'm curious about your thoughts there.
I think I'm more comfortable with the following... an (a) (b) (c) expanded flat which looks like panning out for (c) up to make wave 2 or a (1) to (5) diag triangle to make a wave (5) around recent lows to make 1
PS: My charts were from yesterdays close.
Hi OzWaveGuy
As mentioned earlier I'm relatively new to EW, but I've been studying it up mighty hard particularly the last couple of days because I just felt something wasn't right with the larger degree count I adopted from previous Ew'ers more experienced than me.
Since you are the most recent EW posting I'll relate my thoughts to your chart. I originally had my wave (i) or A where you have to make an ABC zig zag pattern (that most were talking about), but I have since changed my mind... partly because B retraces more than 50% of A which seems more like a Flat.
I thought your placement of wave i back in last Oct was not exactly in the right place, ie that it should have been a bit lower down... but then I realised you may be calling a little diag triangle followed by an expanded flat and calling wave v of (i) an impulse for the wave (i) to be an impulse. I'm inclined to see v as an abc, which would make it an (invalid) diag triangle because i and iv don't come within 10% of overlapping. I'm curious about your thoughts there.
I think I'm more comfortable with the following... an (a) (b) (c) expanded flat which looks like panning out for (c) up to make wave 2 or a (1) to (5) diag triangle to make a wave (5) around recent lows to make 1
PS: My charts were from yesterdays close.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Whiskers, Make Elliot as plain as can be and if it does not set out like an easy Elliot then the chances are that you will be wrong.
The first wave down is a clear 5 wave structure, there is then an ABC structure up and now we are down. In Wave structure think alternation and as we can see the first wave down was 5 waves we can expect the C wave down to be a three wave structure. In other words if the A wave is 5 waves then we can expect the c wave to be 3 waves.
At least that is my belief, the only other problem with Elliot is trying to work out in what cycle your in.
Anyway good luck to everyone who trades
Whiskers, Make Elliot as plain as can be and if it does not set out like an easy Elliot then the chances are that you will be wrong.
The first wave down is a clear 5 wave structure, there is then an ABC structure up and now we are down. In Wave structure think alternation and as we can see the first wave down was 5 waves we can expect the C wave down to be a three wave structure. In other words if the A wave is 5 waves then we can expect the c wave to be 3 waves.
At least that is my belief, the only other problem with Elliot is trying to work out in what cycle your in.
Anyway good luck to everyone who trades
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Whiskers you are making the same mistake that every newb makes IMHO. Failing to become an expert and testing before implementing. It really is a joke!!
It happens time and time again. Someone finds something that on the first look seems like the holy grail or that resonates with them then they spend a couple of weeks reading up every thing they can. And hit the ground running. But from all my observations of expertise, especially in trading, the MAIN ingredient is practise. Hundreds of hours of it.
If you are trading off this tripe you are posting I would, IMHO, say you are in the same class as the dudes that post in the beginners threads about trading fulltime without actually testing or doing anything to justify their confidence in their own abilities.
But any way carry on. I got to give it to you its entertaining if nothing else.
Whiskers you are making the same mistake that every newb makes IMHO. Failing to become an expert and testing before implementing. It really is a joke!!
It happens time and time again. Someone finds something that on the first look seems like the holy grail or that resonates with them then they spend a couple of weeks reading up every thing they can. And hit the ground running. But from all my observations of expertise, especially in trading, the MAIN ingredient is practise. Hundreds of hours of it.
If you are trading off this tripe you are posting I would, IMHO, say you are in the same class as the dudes that post in the beginners threads about trading fulltime without actually testing or doing anything to justify their confidence in their own abilities.
But any way carry on.
I got to give it to you its entertaining if nothing else.
Whiskers
It's a small world
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hey, what do ya mean 'tripe'... I have already posted my illustrious results: and didn't I tell ya beware of pot holes... it's not the bottom fallin outa the market.
TH, I take it you have no faith in EW.
EW certainly is not the first nor the critical tool for my decision making.
Yes I do use it as a range finder to assist my trading quite well. I rely on FA first other TA then see how EW lines up or not.
As you know people post to get insight from others, a bit of fun, boost their ego, ramp or whatever.
Basically I'm sharing 'intelligence' to collectively find the right path of the market.
Whiskers you are making the same mistake that every newb makes IMHO. Failing to become an expert and testing before implementing. It really is a joke!!
It happens time and time again. Someone finds something that on the first look seems like the holy grail or that resonates with them then they spend a couple of weeks reading up every thing they can. And hit the ground running. But from all my observations of expertise, especially in trading, the MAIN ingredient is practise. Hundreds of hours of it.
If you are trading off this tripe you are posting I would, IMHO, say you are in the same class as the dudes that post in the beginners threads about trading fulltime without actually testing or doing anything to justify their confidence in their own abilities.
But any way carry on.
Hey, what do ya mean 'tripe'... I have already posted my illustrious results
: and didn't I tell ya beware of pot holes... it's not the bottom fallin outa the market. TH, I take it you have no faith in EW.
EW certainly is not the first nor the critical tool for my decision making.
Yes I do use it as a range finder to assist my trading quite well. I rely on FA first other TA then see how EW lines up or not.
As you know people post to get insight from others, a bit of fun, boost their ego
, ramp or whatever.Basically I'm sharing 'intelligence'
to collectively find the right path of the market.
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Re: XAO Analysis
Thats all.
Its not EW I have no faith in. It is people who are experts after a couple of weeks using something that I find a bit bemusing.
Thats all.
Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Oh, gee TH... it must be at least six months now... and I'm still on 'L' or 'P' plates or somthin. Can't call me an expert. That's why I'm sticking it out there for critique... or to be proved correrct.
Oh, gee TH... it must be at least six months now... and I'm still on 'L' or 'P' plates or somthin. Can't call me an expert. That's why I'm sticking it out there for critique... or to be proved correrct.
white_goodman
BOC
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Re: XAO Analysis
yeh dont be a dick about it, only be a dick if hes saying it is correct. If he wants some help to see if its right whats the harm in helping him out...
whiskers from a beginner it looks okish to me, i dont really like EW tho
Oh, gee TH... it must be at least six months now... and I'm still on 'L' or 'P' plates or somthin. Can't call me an expert. That's why I'm sticking it out there for critique... or to be proved correrct.
yeh dont be a dick about it, only be a dick if hes saying it is correct. If he wants some help to see if its right whats the harm in helping him out...
whiskers from a beginner it looks okish to me, i dont really like EW tho
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
To me the practical application of ANY form of analysis is far more important.
Attempting to label any complex corrective wave down to the most minor of timeframes is --to me---quite pointless.
If you understand Elliott you'll realise there are often different counts---each as valid as the other until proven incorrect.
Ive been trading this count for months.
Set me up very well for shorts off the wave 4 high---still have one NWS open.
The is no eveidence yet that this count is not currently valid.
My view is many here are attempting to find counts which suit their view of NEWS and FUNDAMENTALS,rather than letting the analysis play out.
Who cares if today is a minor wave "C"
The most important thing is being on the correct side of a move,my timeframe is higher and longer than T/Hs and if you were trading a lower timeframe then if you had R/T Elliott wave youd be using 5 min or so Elliott analysis to trade these timeframes NOT DAILY! To get on the right side of the market.
I'll bet there was a wave 5 end on the day before yesterday in many of the lower timeframes.(Cant confirm this as I dont have R/T but I do know someone who has so will get a chart or 3 and see!).
Incidently the chart above is currently showing a wave 5 of 5 or the "Possible" end of this move.
Yet to be confirmed as it could extend lower.
To me the practical application of ANY form of analysis is far more important.
Attempting to label any complex corrective wave down to the most minor of timeframes is --to me---quite pointless.
If you understand Elliott you'll realise there are often different counts---each as valid as the other until proven incorrect.
Ive been trading this count for months.
Set me up very well for shorts off the wave 4 high---still have one NWS open.
The is no eveidence yet that this count is not currently valid.
My view is many here are attempting to find counts which suit their view of NEWS and FUNDAMENTALS,rather than letting the analysis play out.
Who cares if today is a minor wave "C"
The most important thing is being on the correct side of a move,my timeframe is higher and longer than T/Hs and if you were trading a lower timeframe then if you had R/T Elliott wave youd be using 5 min or so Elliott analysis to trade these timeframes NOT DAILY! To get on the right side of the market.
I'll bet there was a wave 5 end on the day before yesterday in many of the lower timeframes.(Cant confirm this as I dont have R/T but I do know someone who has so will get a chart or 3 and see!).
Incidently the chart above is currently showing a wave 5 of 5 or the "Possible" end of this move.
Yet to be confirmed as it could extend lower.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Tech,
Why do you have the May high marked Sept 1st on your chart???
brty
Tech,
Why do you have the May high marked Sept 1st on your chart???
brty
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Re: XAO Analysis
I agree here, simple is good.It is impossible to trade double zig zags, triple 3's etc in my experience.
T/H is right here, people are trying to trade off E.Wave (in this case) without having a firm understanding.
The above quote just an example.Wave C cannot be 3 waves, always 5 as it is an impulse wave.It can be a diagonal but we won't go there.
Alternation as an example would be wave 2 being a zig zag, so in theory wave 4 should be a flat or complex pattern.
I agree here, simple is good.It is impossible to trade double zig zags, triple 3's etc in my experience.
T/H is right here, people are trying to trade off E.Wave (in this case) without having a firm understanding.
The above quote just an example.Wave C cannot be 3 waves, always 5 as it is an impulse wave.It can be a diagonal but we won't go there.
Alternation as an example would be wave 2 being a zig zag, so in theory wave 4 should be a flat or complex pattern.
Whiskers
It's a small world
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Re: XAO Analysis
Not sure it's pointless tech/a, because surely while the lower degree waves are guided by the higher degree, they can forewarn (especially when corroberated by other analysis) of any deviation from the most likely path... but again I suppose it depends on the time frame one trades.
I monitor my stocks and indicies hourly as well for entry and exit points but don't normally count EW hourly... just as an example the hourly of the XAO looks likely to come back a bit more from here... supported by other indicators and charts not shown... pending later developments that may sway it.
PS: tech/a, I'm curious... I see you have a 3 in green box at top of chart. Did you start that five count from the Aug low and if so why?
Not sure it's pointless tech/a, because surely while the lower degree waves are guided by the higher degree, they can forewarn (especially when corroberated by other analysis) of any deviation from the most likely path... but again I suppose it depends on the time frame one trades.
I monitor my stocks and indicies hourly as well for entry and exit points but don't normally count EW hourly... just as an example the hourly of the XAO looks likely to come back a bit more from here... supported by other indicators and charts not shown... pending later developments that may sway it.
PS: tech/a, I'm curious... I see you have a 3 in green box at top of chart. Did you start that five count from the Aug low and if so why?
