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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Wave (II) down completed today at almost bang on 38% retracement of wave (I), something I was really in favor of. I'm not usually satisfied of a 23% retracement of most waves, until it's evident that the market has moved on from the correction. What's more, the leg down today developed in a clear 5 waves down, thus providing more credibility that wave (II) was a flat (3-3-5 wave formation), in this case with a B wave failure as previously discussed. It looks though the next leg up - wave (III) is forming, and I believe that the chances of wave (II) further correcting with a double flat correction is low considering that it's taken a long time for wave (II) to form v's wave (I) (which formed in 68% of the time wave (II) took to develop). Also, S&P500 futures retraced almost all of last night's move to within 2 points of the 1185 low that was discussed earlier - if it had hit 1185 it would have had me rethink the whole short term view - what's 2 points between friends, right? Right now, the S&P500 futures needs to move up from the current lows and form wave 3 of 3 for the current bullish view to remain intact.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Wave (II) down completed today at almost bang on 38% retracement of wave (I), something I was really in favor of. I'm not usually satisfied of a 23% retracement of most waves, until it's evident that the market has moved on from the correction. What's more, the leg down today developed in a clear 5 waves down, thus providing more credibility that wave (II) was a flat (3-3-5 wave formation), in this case with a B wave failure as previously discussed. It looks though the next leg up - wave (III) is forming, and I believe that the chances of wave (II) further correcting with a double flat correction is low considering that it's taken a long time for wave (II) to form v's wave (I) (which formed in 68% of the time wave (II) took to develop). Also, S&P500 futures retraced almost all of last night's move to within 2 points of the 1185 low that was discussed earlier - if it had hit 1185 it would have had me rethink the whole short term view - what's 2 points between friends, right? Right now, the S&P500 futures needs to move up from the current lows and form wave 3 of 3 for the current bullish view to remain intact.
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This is the alternate count I am looking at.

Before the E.Wave critics jump in, it is more than valid to watch 2 counts at once.

One will be invalidated leaving of course one.

As I have said before I find the Nasdaq count the clearest which suggests much more pain to come.

At the end of the day, the bail out plan in the US (or lack of ) may dictate short term direction.Medium term we look like we are going down.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I don't think the XAO has enough wind in its sails to walk the upper BB bands.
It just doesn't have enough spunk yet. In a consolidation scenario where the bands are showing little volatility, and you then get an emotional extreme pushing hard against the green 55day BB (on the 18th for eg), you often get two scenarios -
i) its a head fake that precedes a decent rally
ii) its a warning of the next emotional direction the market wants to take after it has a breather; a shot across the bow, so to speak.

I think we may see a euphoric move (with bail out approval) pushing up against the upper BB bands, maybe closing at 5300 in next week. But I'm sceptical that a decent rally will ensue. ( Note the Money Flow and RSI divergences longer term would suggest a bear market rally is indeed a possibility...I just can't see it being long lived).

I just get the feeling that the XAO wants to indulge in “a little of the old ultra-violence".
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I think the xao is heading up for a few days. (but im a permabull so dyor)

I find patterns and support on the ES helpful, as it pulls the xao around.

I think the US markets are surprised at the effort and debate going into the 'rescue package' as opposed to blindly throwing money into a bailout. I think the markets are impressed by the debate, and are factoring in a rise prior to an announcement next week.

Washington Mutual temporarily got in the way, and last night's gains were impressive despite negative Wachovia rumours.

It's interesting that the recent short term bottom (17,18,19 september) happened around futures rollover time. This was the same in March. The 'bottom volume' I was looking for was hidden in the rollover volume, which is somewhat annoying, because I would have liked 140 ES (400 spi) points in 24 hours..
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The small wave (II) correction wasn't quite content at a 38.2% retracement. The XAO headed down to a 50% retracement (to within 1 point) of wave (I) today, and developed a slightly different corrective pattern than that was previously discussed ;).

Instead of a flat (3-3-5), a double zig-zag formed which displays as two a-b-c (5-3-5) corrections separated by an X wave as shown). Picking the type of correction is like pulling hens teeth until the correction is just about over.

Interestingly, the Aussie Futures never looked in a position to drive upwards since the Friday close as a clear 5 wave advance wasn't visible (nor on the S&P500) and formed what looks to be an expanded flat with the C wave down hopefully finishing soon where bullish divergences on the RSI and Price rate of change are visible. A clear 5 waves up needs to materialize very soon on both the XAO and the Aussie Futures to validate the current count.

Also, I thought I'd post a snapshot of the real estate sector which displays one of the best Elliottwave Patterns I've ever seen here ---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=341958&postcount=732
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

LOL but no disrespect nor offence intended but my take on the elliot wave spruikers and readers of said patterns have the advantage of being able to change the "pivot " points on a daily basis using new fandango phraseology and numbers quoted until one day they might get it right , gawd bless a freee market hey :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
LOL but no disrespect nor offence intended but my take on the elliot wave spruikers and readers of said patterns have the advantage of being able to change the "pivot " points on a daily basis using new fandango phraseology and numbers quoted until one day they might get it right , gawd bless a freee market hey :)
Click to expand...


AND if the fundamentals of a company alter do you simply stay with your analysis or alter it accordingly.
OR if a trend is broken do you simply ignore it and trade the trend regardless.
This is one of the benifits of Elliott --The analysis tells you WHEN its incorrect and gives you the opportunity to "Reset" it given what is known.

I personally use Elliott in my analysis and has given me just the edge I need.
Ive also posted realtime trades which only seem to get comments if they fail.

The latest Ive made public were these.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12119

Frankly I think comments like these show the lack of experience in analysis.
Perhaps then you'll remain "Nunthewiser"
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
AND if the fundamentals of a company alter do you simply stay with your analysis or alter it accordingly.
OR if a trend is broken do you simply ignore it and trade the trend regardless.
This is one of the benifits of Elliott --The analysis tells you WHEN its incorrect and gives you the opportunity to "Reset" it given what is known.

I personally use Elliott in my analysis and has given me just the edge I need.
Ive also posted realtime trades which only seem to get comments if they fail.
Click to expand...

um the way ive read the posts here lately is calling a rise to a certain level each day then changing the numbers at where it turns each time because it didnt happen . I too use elliot amongst other other tools but basically at the end of the day it is merely another view from behind until someone gueeses it right then they sing how accurate they or there methods used were.
i have no comments on anyones posted real time trades as i post mine too in other places and know exactly where ya coming from .
like i said no offense was intended was merely pointing out what i see
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OH DEAR!.........



"Frankly I think comments like these show the lack of experience in analysis.
Perhaps then you'll remain "Nunthewiser"

LOL
now who showing a lack of experience dear ?? .um i merely pointed out some failings in your beloved elliot and some of the posts here and now you wish to attack me personally , grow up dear and confront or answer my posts in a mature manner


thanks in advance
an open minded when it comes to trading and investing Nun
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
AND if the fundamentals of a company alter do you simply stay with your analysis or alter it accordingly.
OR if a trend is broken do you simply ignore it and trade the trend regardless.
This is one of the benifits of Elliott --The analysis tells you WHEN its incorrect and gives you the opportunity to "Reset" it given what is known.

I personally use Elliott in my analysis and has given me just the edge I need.
Ive also posted realtime trades which only seem to get comments if they fail.

The latest Ive made public were these.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12119

Frankly I think comments like these show the lack of experience in analysis.
Perhaps then you'll remain "Nunthewiser"
Click to expand...


tech/a, can you tell me how you find Advance Get wrt EW? Accuracy overall performance and cost? thx in advance
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
Instead of a flat (3-3-5), a double zig-zag formed which displays as two a-b-c (5-3-5) corrections separated by an X wave as shown). Picking the type of correction is like pulling hens teeth until the correction is just about over.
Click to expand...

In my experience (which isn't too long) these type of corrections are next to impossible to trade.

We could even get another zig zag making it a triple.No way I know of that can tell you this.

It can't be a combination as only one zig zag is allowed.

I still favour that we are in a wave 3 impulse down although we could get another correction testing the recent highs.

There are times when any type of analysis gives conflicting information.E.Wave is no different.

I am waiting for confirmation, probably a break of the recent lows before trading full positions again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I too use elliot amongst other other tools but basically at the end of the day it is merely another view from behind until someone gueeses it right then they sing how accurate they or there methods used were.
Click to expand...

This I find an amazing comment from someone who "Uses" Elliott in their analysis.
Its not a comment I have ever seen from an exponent of Elliott---rather from those who simply dont understand the analysis.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Good grief!, remind me not to question elliot wave accuracy and "change the story analysis until its right" approach again .

have a lovely day
 
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