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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
5
Australianstockreport.com.au wreckons we are due for 4800 in the next couple of days... who really knows i guess.
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omg, those clowns are pathetic... over priced for a rubbish report.

Yesterday it was Bullish, today Bearish...
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what do you expect? it's volatiles times. a 1000 point rally, then mirrored the next day doesn't happen during normal markets...

anything goes... short term technical charts are useless... the long term chart is still heading south...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
omg,
anything goes... short term technical charts are useless... the long term chart is still heading south...
Click to expand...


No disrespect intended here Korrupt, cause I am also learning to appreciate the different time frames of "investment", but from where I stand, the short term technical chart, particularly in the current state of the market, is the only chart that makes any sense at the moment ..............

Its probably more about our individual concept of what determines a short, medium or long term chart ................. eg. For some, a 1 hour chart is short term ................ for others, a 1 minute chart is an eternity ..............

For me personally ..... I'm open to suggestion/advice, but, the longer the chart time, the wider the stop required, and in the current climate, the more risk involved ................. Just an observation ...... I could be totally wrong however ...... Cheers.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
I'll put a best case scenerio... assuming todays low was ii, wave iii could take out 5700 and the max is well in play. Oh man, you watch me cop it now. The bludy bears are many and fierce around here.
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I wouldn't want to disappoint...FA says you're wrong. The downturn in the US, Europe and Oz has yet to be fully priced -- the worst is yet to come. Too many bad things haven't happened yet. Banks going bust, hedge funds blowing up, bail-outs, the usual stuff.

You've called lots of bottoms, but this is not it, not yet. Another day, another bounce. October is still a good month for bad news. You'll see.
:grenade:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wow.

If there was ever an indecisive day, this is it. Traded up and down within a -1% range today a lot.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

waiting for decisions in the US it seems. how long can it wait ? I would think anything beyond 2 weeks would put a bit of pressure on.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
5500. Really..? Everyone has so many differnet opinions. Yesterday it was Bullish, today Bearish...

Australianstockreport.com.au wreckons we are due for 4800 in the next couple of days... who really knows i guess.
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Yep that's what makes a market opposing opinions and its only ever some ones opinion no one really knows.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Today's market action, whilst down may be the start of a bigger push up as 5 small waves up (wave I) followed by a 3 wave correction down (wave II) seems to have been completed. Although there's every possibility that further downside action is possible considering the larger wave (II) has only corrected 23% of wave (I). Usually at least a 38%+ correction should be seen for 2nd waves, although 23% is usually considered a minimum - the next 1 or 2 trading days should provide more visibility on the short term wave structure. Today also marks the 3rd inside day on the XAO which may result breakout - hopefully forming wave (III) up
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Bets for US interest rate cuts are increasing so it could coincide with OZWaveGuy's opinion for a high push up from here... but ofcourse, once up, it'll get sold down again...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
Bets for US interest rate cuts are increasing so it could coincide with OZWaveGuy's opinion for a high push up from here... but ofcourse, once up, it'll get sold down again...
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Also, the S&P500 futures seems to be almost completed on a triple zig-zag correction from the sep 19th high, so a solid break out of resistance (possibly proceeding a false breakout) tonight could be on the cards.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I have just been going through an Elliott Wave exercise which has got me plotting 5 waves on SLB to around October 2002.

The pattern is somewhat similiar to the current chart of the XAO (or do I need to have a night off )
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
I have just been going through an Elliott Wave exercise which has got me plotting 5 waves on SLB to around October 2002.

The pattern is somewhat similiar to the current chart of the XAO (or do I need to have a night off )
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Nope - it's all good! There is a strong similarity with XAO, the current leg up could certainly be wave C of an expanded flat that should break the recent high.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

As discussed last night, a breakout of the triple zig-zag correction did occur (after the "default" false breakout) on the S&P500 futures (almost exactly on 61.8% fib retracement), so hopefully today's action on the XAO displays the start of wave III up as discussed previously (although I'm yet to see a solid 5 wave pattern up on the Aussie Futures this morning which may not confirm the XAO wave III as yet )
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Got any timings for us on these eventualities OzWaveGuy, or are you pure EW?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Got any timings for us on these eventualities OzWaveGuy, or are you pure EW?
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Hopefully we should see the end of the downside action today and thus complete the small wave (II) down which appears to be forming a flat (with a B wave failure), hence the last leg down should play out in 5 small waves that hit or go just beyond the XAO low from the 23rd (thus forming a double bottom). The S&P500 futures appears to be correcting from the 5 wave up breakout last night in a wave 2 down that must not drop below 1185 (strong resistance at 1189). I'm still not entirely satisfied that the XAO Wave (II) will hit only 23.6% correction, but it implies that market has a good level of confidence that higher values can be reached. More later
 
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