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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

mayk said:
Now I often wonder what happened to the great theory of decoupling :)

Anyway, today we might have a controlled panic, with an uncontrolled panic on Friday. Thursdays, I don't think are renowned for capitulation. Septembers and Fridays make a deadly combination.
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That's an economic theory...not necessarily share market based.

Don't think that will change the fact that the XAO is toast today.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
Don't think that will change the fact that the XAO is toast today.
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This is weird. Last futures trade was down 153 points - more than 3%

But every ASX200 share I look at, the pre-open price is set to skyrocket, and there are far more buyers than sellers.

Some fantastic news released between 7am and now?

Toast - but which side is getting burned, the longs or the shorts?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
This is weird. Last futures trade was down 153 points - more than 3%

But every ASX200 share I look at, the pre-open price is set to skyrocket, and there are far more buyers than sellers.

Some fantastic news released between 7am and now?

Toast - but which side is getting burned, the longs or the shorts?
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wait untill the pre-open auction opens... see how many spec buy orders placed yesterday are pulled...
incidentally.... get in quick and buy banks with your ears pinned back..

Cheers
.........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
wait untill the pre-open auction opens... see how many spec buy orders placed yesterday are pulled...
incidentally.... get in quick and buy banks with your ears pinned back..

Cheers
.........Kauri
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Ah, so you think that a lot of people were speculatively "picking bottom" and now when it was clear the US didn't behave, they'll pull?

This far out from start of trade, I'll believe that.

Too bad if a few of them couldn't get to work today to cancel their orders ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Its Futures expiry Sunder you will have the Arbs crossing hands on three months worth of work. It means nothing.

Certainly not anything in a directional bet sense.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Its Futures expiry Sunder you will have the Arbs crossing hands on three months worth of work. It means nothing.

Certainly not anything in a directional bet sense.
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My turn to ask you to explain something :)

What is the effect of futures contract expiry on the market? I've never really looked into futures trading.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

You have three month of arbitrage and hedges buying/selling the Futures and doing the opposite with stocks. What they are trying to do is not place directional bets but rather take profit between the two mispriced instruments.

Come expiry when you have to deliver the product or cash or roll into the next contract stock prices have realigned. So mostly the trades are unwound.

You will see huge volume. Everyone gets excited about it but they mean nothing in terms of a directional bet. Same thing kinda happens with options expiry next week.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ouch, it's a bloodbath, 160 points down!

The next fib support level from 2003 - 2007 is at 4300.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I took my 76% gain on my shorts and ran.

My feel is that it's got a bit more to go, but I'm not willing to risk my gains to try to chase the last few percent. I'm not a greedy man, after all 76% in less than a week should be a good return for anyone!

Carnage.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Still early days but it seems fairly tame in comparison to Jan 22nd when we dropped more than 400 pts.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I took my 76% gain on my shorts and ran.
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after all 76% in less than a week should be a good return for anyone!
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Sunder what point is quoting return on margin :confused:

I have a Futures account a CFD account and a Cash account.

I can make exactly the same trade and get the following results,

Shares 0.2%
Futs 3.8%
CFD 43%

Which one is the best trade? Only thing that's worth quoting is points NOT ROM.
 
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