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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
The new E.Wave guru had a E.Wave triangle breaking to the upside as well :eek:

Maybe some will have a bit less of an ego now.
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lol, I doubt it. Remember there was also a hedged call ;), so I'm sure we'll all hear about how it was called correctly.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
lol, I doubt it. Remember there was also a hedged call ;), so I'm sure we'll all hear about how it was called correctly.
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yeh you can never be wrong if you bet both ways....

however i see no harm in having a stab at a price level as long as you can back it up with a well supported theory or chart...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We have an classic inverted hammer today.

When that comes during a downward trend, that usually indicates shorts are closing their position.

Undecided what I want to do. I don't believe we are anywhere near bottom, but it could be a bit of a resting period as the AIG and Lehman deals (or lack of deals) works its way through the market. I fear a bear market rally, but I guess I'll read it from tonight's trading in the US, and Futures at 7am tomorrow.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
We have an classic inverted hammer today.

When that comes during a downward trend, that usually indicates shorts are closing their position.
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Could ya explain this one for me? With some evidence would be nice. If not, at least your thinking :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
The new E.Wave guru had a E.Wave triangle breaking to the upside as well :eek:

Maybe some will have a bit less of an ego now.
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T'was a possibility to consider mate. Gotta keep an open mind eh.

nomore4s said:
lol, I doubt it. Remember there was also a hedged call ;), so I'm sure we'll all hear about how it was called correctly.
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Nah, no need to doubt it. ;)

After all it ain't over til the fat lady sings.

white_goodman said:
yeh you can never be wrong if you bet both ways....

however i see no harm in having a stab at a price level as long as you can back it up with a well supported theory or chart...
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That's the spirit mate.

But, I did pick the top of this little swing. She (the fat lady) must have been sitting in the passenger seat... caused this bit of a pothole to be felt a bit worse that's all. :eek:

But hey, It hasn't changed the big picture.

After all I don't abandon a trip just because the car hit a pothole and got a flat... or if some dude has a crash and delayed me for a bit.

Don't panic folks... she'll be all right.

Oh, and I only use EW as a range finder to select my target. I'm still driven by FA.

Porper mate how about you put up your EW chart for scritiny? What is your current count and projection... or why it can't possibly go up?

Anyone else for that matter got the balz to post a chart. If yer come under attack from the ravenous bears, I'll come to yer aid and beat em off a bit. :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
We have an classic inverted hammer today.
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With the XAO right on the fib level, I'm not surprised that people are closing their shorts. If it breaks this level, they'll just open them up again. (But then, given the time I have at the moment, my current analysis resembles mostly to the "lick your finger and stick it in the air" method.)

There's no way telling what might happen though. Looking at HBOS (in ftse) today... last close 184.73, open 200.00, current intra-day low 88.00 (yes, eighty eight p only), last traded price (as I type) 191.00. Good luck trading on this one. :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Could ya explain this one for me? With some evidence would be nice. If not, at least your thinking :confused:
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The usual thinking is that in a downward trend, any spikes up aren't usually bulls trying to pick bargains, but failing to drive the price up, but rather shorters that want to close, and so are short spikes.

And so there is usually a continuation of the existing down pattern with a few hours of upward movement like we saw today. This doesn't mean the downward slope has fully ended, but rather that there is enough doubt for a large portion of the shorting community either want to lock in profits, or are uncertain enough of the direction to pull out.

As for evidence? Since when did reading chicken guts require evidence? :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

In Australia meanwhile, the Reserve Bank flooded the financial system with over $4 billion in cash this morning as it sought to keep cash rates steady while the fate of American International Group (AIG) was being sorted out in New York.


After adding $A2.1 billion on Monday and $A1.895 billion Tuesday to meet a system deficit of $A1.39 million over the two days, the RBA added $A4.285 billion today to meet a system deficit of $2.18 billion. That was after the Exchange Settlement Account was left flush Tuesday night with over $4 billion in cash and nervous Australian banks wanted quick cash overnight in case AIG or some other big problem got worse.
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The above quote is from today's Crikey.com.
Apologies if this is a silly question, but when we hear that "The RB flooded the financial system with over $4 billion in cash this morning......" etc, does this mean - in terms of the mechanics - that it simply makes that much more cash available for interbank borrowing from the Reserve?

If that's wrong, could someone kindly outline how it all actually works?

With thanks.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thats what I thought you would say but I reckon you are wrong. Have a look at the chart today and there was nothing but selling from the open.

As for evidence you can always find it in Open interest or put/call ratios. Will be a bit hard to figure so close to expire but e will see tomorrow when the stats are out. I just didn't see any covering today.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

On second thoughts I know where you are coming from. Just the amount of shorts covering on a early morning pop would be miniscule.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Thats what I thought you would say but I reckon you are wrong. Have a look at the chart today and there was nothing but selling from the open.

As for evidence you can always find it in Open interest or put/call ratios. Will be a bit hard to figure so close to expire but e will see tomorrow when the stats are out. I just didn't see any covering today.
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I'm wondering what you mean by "nothing but selling from the open", as every trade needs to have a counter party.

Unless you mean offers to sell? I have a hard time putting any credibility in the "market depth" figures. I've seen shares where there are 1000 buyers for 10,000,000 units, and 200 sellers for 2,500,000 units, (roughly, obviously. I think it was MQG quite a few months ago) and the share price still fell that day.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

No I mean it did nothing but go down from the open. Sellers over whelmed the buyers and the price fell.

In fact I was waiting for the volume to hit prices higher on the open and there was a distinct lack of volume moving up, much to my dismay!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

futures down nearly 200pts since the high this morning...

feels like capitulation is getting closer... any day now, all hells going to break loose... then the buying frenzy will start... and I have pockets full of loose change from lunch to buy a few lots :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We broke that fair and square. Should finally see some proper panicky selling .
(XJO around 4550s). Some blood on the streets tomorrow morning...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Julia said:
The above quote is from today's Crikey.com.
Apologies if this is a silly question, but when we hear that "The RB flooded the financial system with over $4 billion in cash this morning......" etc, does this mean - in terms of the mechanics - that it simply makes that much more cash available for interbank borrowing from the Reserve?

If that's wrong, could someone kindly outline how it all actually works?

With thanks.
Click to expand...

Yes Julia.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Now I often wonder what happened to the great theory of decoupling :)

Anyway, today we might have a controlled panic, with an uncontrolled panic on Friday. Thursdays, I don't think are renowned for capitulation. Septembers and Fridays make a deadly combination.
 
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