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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
I always take it as an incredibly bullish sign if the indicators are all reading bearish whilst the price is staying flat (on stocks at least). In fact, I look for these set ups. Maybe the XAO goes in the potential breakout thread... or the outstanding breakout thread tomorrow?
Cheers,
Chops.
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that consolidation looked very much like a wave 4 imo Chops so if I were long I'd probably be looking to use the jump to lighten up a bit as I think we're close to a turn - all imho - we could see another couple of hundred on XAO / ASX but I reckon it'll be cooked by then
Ed
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Anyway, I hope you are able to make some good money in this little run Kennas. ;) And after that, we'll have a clearer picture of where everything is going.
Cheers,
Chops.
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I haven't really. Just chugging along. I'm still more than fully invested though - about 130% ie, 30% drawn down on the margin loan. I'm normally at 50%. I've made a mistake by not having any financials over the past year. I've been relying on managed funds to invest in those for me.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wave traders will suggest we are in for a last run. wave trading is very accurate in predicting xao but i would not be so confident to be on margin atm.

remember this last year??? we had a false break and alot of traders / investors poured there money in. one day later we had a reversal and they were left with there pants down.

djia due for profit takers also (see chart). this may well be the trigger.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

mildew79 said:
wave traders will suggest we are in for a last run. wave trading is very accurate in predicting xao but i would not be so confident to be on margin atm.

remember this last year??? we had a false break and alot of traders / investors poured there money in. one day later we had a reversal and they were left with there pants down.

djia due for profit takers also (see chart). this may well be the trigger.
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Thanks Mildew. The MACD divergence on your charts makes my ears prick up, although it looks to have just started to turn up again, as it did May 06. I have RSI about 75 ish so possibly a bit more to go before a top as you say. Interesting.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
that consolidation looked very much like a wave 4 imo Chops so if I were long I'd probably be looking to use the jump to lighten up a bit as I think we're close to a turn - all imho - we could see another couple of hundred on XAO / ASX but I reckon it'll be cooked by then
Ed
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I agree.

I don't know much at all about EW theory and identification etc. but even to a layman like me, it looks pretty clear we are into a W5 with W1 ending in May last year.

It also looks as if a lot of blue chips have been in very long W4 consolidation patterns. Some for 9 months or more. So to me, the question is: how long will this W5 last? And if the blue chips have had such a long W4 consolidation, is this W5 on the index part of a larger wave structure? Because if it is... the eventual W5 may not be until the end of this year or next... which to me is the likely scenario given the consolidation length of a lot of blue chips, as well as current market conditions.

But since the start of the year, I have been putting money into slightly more negative stocks, gold and precious metals, as well as stocks with mainly domestic demand... whilst shortening my trading horizon.

Given the DOJI appears to have led this wave move... and its W5 has preceeded the others, we may perhaps get a week or so of warning. In any case, I'll be looking at re-arranging my holdings when the DOJI begins to level.

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. Gold above $700 would be another signal for me to be on my toes...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
I agree.

I don't know much at all about EW theory and identification etc. but even to a layman like me, it looks pretty clear we are into a W5 with W1 ending in May last year.

So to me, the question is: how long will this W5 last? Cheers,
Chops.
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Wave 5 has a direct correlation to Wave 3. If wave 3 is greater than 1.62, or extended, which I think it was, the Wave 5 ratios are:

Wave 5 either
= Wave 1, or
= 1.62 x wave 1, or
= 2.62 x wave 1

So, what's that add up to ??

A waver might be able to correct this. I'm a jube. :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Wave 5 has a direct correlation to Wave 3. If wave 3 is greater than 1.62, or extended, which I think it was, the Wave 5 ratios are:

Wave 5 either
= Wave 1, or
= 1.62 x wave 1, or
= 2.62 x wave 1

So, what's that add up to ??

A waver might be able to correct this. I'm a jube. :)
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Lol.

Thanks for that Kennas.

By naked eye, it looks as though we could already be in the bottom range of those cases then, with the top side nearing 7000. But yeah, need a waver to help us I think.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Still in the early E/W learning stages but this is how I am trading the current XJO.. the coloured boxes are the possible min.. typical..and max turning points of the current W5 as I have it labelled. :) The larger degree waves have slightly different areas... but also don't discount that waves can and do travel a lot further than expected at times..
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

yep thats the '4' I was referring to Kauri - ie the most recent consolidation

3 can't be the shortest, so 5 could just keep extending. fwiw I reckon we are all in China's hands now... read an interesting comment on that recently, apparently they now own the equivalent of 50% of Fannie Mae!!!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sorry, last post cryptic - your 3 is longer than 1 so it would be valid for 5 to extend...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

i suppose the question is, how much upside profits are there to be had? and is it worth the risk of missing correction bargains?

i dont think there is to much left. feel my money is better waiting for value entries on a down move.

closing all my positions before each days end atm. intra day only(no overnight holdings)

nice e/w kauri.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

As requested.

Note that since last time I've moved the top yellow line up a fraction, which makes it appear as resistance now rather than the support it might have become before.

One of the uncertainties of this sort of thing. I've noticed a similar thing with charts in Guppy's newsletters, where he'll maybe comment on some trend line now acting as support but where my same trendline is placed a little different and appears to be acting as resistance. It's all open to interpretation.

Cheers,
GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

good charts guys. a little off topic but relevant for all of us imo is a recent long-term chart for China. with 1million new accounts opening a week and people buying using equity withdrawal and credit cards... late-comers will be toasted

7417agx1.png
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
good charts guys. a little off topic but relevant for all of us imo is a recent long-term chart for China. with 1million new accounts opening a week and people buying using equity withdrawal and credit cards... late-comers will be toasted

7417agx1.png
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:eek: This is the most awesome chart ever, pity it's not the ASX though....:eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

aye its wicked alright - from a guy called Marty Chenard - don't know that we'll get to his target but food for thought. problem is I don't want to be short ASX yet, but am nervous taking longs :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Today's action looks interesting. Can it remain above the channel though, or do I need to adjust the line again? :rolleyes:

Cheers,
GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hi greatpig, this is my interpretation of a long term trend channel for the XAO... from this interpretation I'd say we broke above the channel (which has been going for almost 20 years) a while back.

I take some liberties with my trend lines, with breaches every now and then, I'm not sure whether it is important for them to be 100% parallel or not, but I have ensured that they are.

Anyway not going to try and interpret it, except to say that to me it looks pretty bullish!

xao_ax30apr82_to_06may07.png

Tony.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
aye its wicked alright - from a guy called Marty Chenard - don't know that we'll get to his target but food for thought. problem is I don't want to be short ASX yet, but am nervous taking longs :confused:
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Correction due in a week or so looking at the MACD and slow stocchastic indicators which are near peaks in my opinion. Will be very surprised if it doesn't hit soon.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Certainly from my perspective the RSI is looking rather perilous as well, monthly is way over bought, and weekly is now once again getting very close to the 80 mark.... if you look at the last few corrections it has generally happened at the point where monthly rsi was at or over 80 (around the 83 to 85 mark) and the weekly RSI also touched 80.

I'm still in two minds about it though, I think that the "correction that wasn't" in march may have taken the caution out of a lot of investors, thinking that the correction for this year has been and gone. Time will tell I guess :) but I'm not planning at this stage to start offloading like before I did a couple of months ago in anticipation of the correction in March (which I was a couple of weeks too early on).

Tony.
 
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