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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Possibly. 550's a big drop, and 8% is a decent correction. I'm not sure if our market conditions are set for that. There's not too much froth in the ASX appreciation and the overall pe doesn't seem too high. It's about the long term ave I think? Do you know where it's sitting?? Should be some support at 5900 too you'd think so that could be the 2-300 correction mark. 300 is a 5% drop which would be a meaningful pause.
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About 5450 on the 200d MA, and about 5960 on the 50d MA.

I still favour one more breakout before we see a dive. Bar a negative international event, there is absolutely no reason for a sell off. A lot of negative overhangs have all but been lifted.

The XAO is very near the close MA, and if you want to use the RSI, there is still room to move both on the weekly and daily. So, it still has room to run in the short term IMO, and that is the event that I favour.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi all, first post here.

I did a bit of quick number crunching on XAO, and plotted the % difference between the 50SMA against the 200SMA. Make of it what you will.

As you can tell, the Feb correction is not noticeable on the curve. All it did was flatten the ascent.

Cheers.:2twocents
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

hacheln_mice said:
Hi all, first post here.

I did a bit of quick number crunching on XAO, and plotted the % difference between the 50SMA against the 200SMA. Make of it what you will.

As you can tell, the Feb correction is not noticeable on the curve. All it did was flatten the ascent.

Cheers.:2twocents
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Is this 2006 or 2007, dates on the chart are 2006.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Here's another comparing the 5SMA v 200SMA. As you can see, the positive discrepancy is the largest its been since 98/99.

Note also how the XAO has slowed its advance in recent days, while the US went vertical. This reminds me of April of last year when XAO slowed and US woke up from its March slumber.

I'm not making any calls though, just presenting the facts.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whoops, how embarrassing.:eek:

First chart was labeled wrong. Here's the corrected version, pardon the mess.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

May be way off line but below is the way I am trading the XJO currently via E/W.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I noticed the Chinese mkt has risen 45% since last time it triggered a world-wide correction, what's the odds the tail will wag the dog again when next the Chinese mkt bubble pops causing expected May correction everywhere else.

i.e don't bother analysing the ASX, Dow or Nasdaq, just tell me when China's gonna go POP! :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Read the data thread as to why this comparison is pointless and useless.
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I'd like to see something useful in this thread to compare it against.

It's interesting to see just how far we still are from the 80's euphoria yet.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Waysolid :) nice to see a relative graph!

My interpretation has been mostly focused on RSI (which seems to polarise people) not on magnitudes of the actual index, but it is reasuring to see that the magnitudes are no where near the same, so if we were to get a "crash" it would be a small one in comparison to 87. I'm just looking at a similar pattern as I perceive it :)

Tony.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Was looking at the XAO on a weekly chart (over 5 years) using a logarithmic axis. It looks to be in a fairly tight up trending channel, but what got my attention was that every time it looked to push through or did break the top line it pulled back into the channel and toward (generally came down to meet) the 30 week MA. Maybe we could be due for a pullback toward the MA?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Was looking at the XAO on a weekly chart (over 5 years) using a logarithmic axis. It looks to be in a fairly tight up trending channel, but what got my attention was that every time it looked to push through or did break the top line it pulled back into the channel and toward (generally came down to meet) the 30 week MA. Maybe we could be due for a pullback toward the MA?
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Thanks Nomore, what level on the XAO does the 30 d ma equate to on your chart atm?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Good graph Waysolid, maybe we should compare it to China at present.:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Shenzhen composite index.

Impressive returns.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Some nice healthy consolidation occurring at the moment, especially amongst the overbought uranium speccies. The XAO is even looking like it's about to get into oversold territory on the stochastics. Notice the past few times the stochs have gone below the 'oversold' line at 20. Found a bottom each time. Maybe we're about to get there again. All three indicators here are still heading down though. Pretty short term bearish really.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Notice also the strong RSI divergence between this peak and the previous one.

GP
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Some nice healthy consolidation occurring at the moment, especially amongst the overbought uranium speccies. The XAO is even looking like it's about to get into oversold territory on the stochastics. Notice the past few times the stochs have gone below the 'oversold' line at 20. Found a bottom each time. Maybe we're about to get there again. All three indicators here are still heading down though. Pretty short term bearish really.
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True, i agree with GP as well.
Should be back up and roaring by next week. Maybe.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
True, i agree with GP as well.
Should be back up and roaring by next week. Maybe.
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I agree. General cycles point to a run up to August-September. I believe we will have a great run-up till then

Cheers

Oscar
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Looks like an ascending triangle forming to me Kennas...
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kennas said:
Some nice healthy consolidation occurring at the moment, especially amongst the overbought uranium speccies. The XAO is even looking like it's about to get into oversold territory on the stochastics. Notice the past few times the stochs have gone below the 'oversold' line at 20. Found a bottom each time. Maybe we're about to get there again. All three indicators here are still heading down though. Pretty short term bearish really.
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I'm not sure how you are meant to read the indicators for indexes, or how you read indicators personally, but I always take it as an incredibly bullish sign if the indicators are all reading bearish whilst the price is staying flat (on stocks at least). In fact, I look for these set ups. Maybe the XAO goes in the potential breakout thread... or the outstanding breakout thread tomorrow?

Anyway, I hope you are able to make some good money in this little run Kennas. ;) And after that, we'll have a clearer picture of where everything is going.

Cheers,
Chops.
 
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