XAO Technical Analysis

CAB SAV · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Won't be looking for "bargins" just yet. Last time states had a significant fall like this was 9/11 and "fallout" took weeks before market settled down and so did ours. Will be waiting till US election is over & their blind euphoria returns before considering to re enter. Short till then at least.

mayk · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the big miners are holding the XAO today... The impending announcement of an expected rate cut might spur a short rally in the street tonight. Alternatively, if AIG goes under then there is a slight change that all hell might break loose and we might see actual blood on the street.

white_goodman · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

mayk said:
I think the big miners are holding the XAO today... The impending announcement of an expected rate cut might spur a short rally in the street tonight. Alternatively, if AIG goes under then there is a slight change that all hell might break loose and we might see actual blood on the street.

what will that mkean to our big banks and financials?

Frank D · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I haven't bought back into Financials since the exact lows in July
@ 4876:- pump and dump and exit @ the 3-week highs @ 5100

But i'll be moving back into Financials shortly....

Porper · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
I haven't bought back into Financials since the exact lows in July
@ 4876:- pump and dump and exit @ the 3-week highs @ 5100

But i'll be moving back into Financials shortly....

Frank, let us know exactly when you buy up big, especially as you bought at the exact low in July, then got out at the exact top.That's marvelous.

dhukka · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Wayne,

You just don't understand the fundamentals mate, it's all about oil. I mean sure the market is hitting new lows even though oil is off -30% from its highs. You see its just got to go bit lower and everything will be allright, promise. Afterall, those nasty investment banks use up so much oil for their CLO's CDO's and what not.

Oil at US$92 a barrel. Just a little lower perhaps?

Frank D · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper,

The same reason Why I bought the exact lows in March @ 5056 and traded 900 point up move into MAY.

The same reason Why I bought in July, but this time the exit was based
on the June breakout. That's why I exitted:- breakout and expectation of
a continuation down in this Quarter.

The Market is now trading around September lows, why do you think the market is holding up today.

Am I buying again.... NOT YET, but very very soon.

Because I don't think the September lows will hold, but i'm still looking for a
3-month UP move in the next Quarter, and then the market will go lower in 2009, once again making lower lows.

And I'll guarantee one thing, i'll be buying the lows in the market in 2009,
just like I did in 2003. And there are many old heads in this forum now
that were around on that day in March 2003.

Next time don't be a friggin smart *a**

Porper · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
Porper,

Next time don't be a friggin smart *a**

You know the exact reason why I was a smart *a* as you put it.

Telling everybody what a hero you were getting the exact tops and bottoms is a pointless exercise unless you put your money where your mouth is at the time.

nomore4s · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Be interesting to see how the XAO reacts today, as alot of the news was known yesterday but I think the effect it had may have been underestimated.

Wonder how our financials will hold up.

Well not as bad as I thought it would be, I had a feeling we would see some sort of strength (relative to overseas markets) after yesterday.

Been a bit of a mixed bag for the financials, WBC is even in the green

justjohn · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I think yesterday took a bit of sting out of today MQG is down almost 18% over the last 2 days

Sunder · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Well not as bad as I thought it would be, I had a feeling we would see some sort of strength (relative to overseas markets) after yesterday.

Been a bit of a mixed bag for the financials, WBC is even in the green

I'm surprised as well.

I think the big news tonight is the Fed meeting. I doubt 25bp cut when you're already sitting at a 2% target cash rate does much for you, but it might help the market up a touch tomorrow. If they cut 50bp, they're really risking inflation and skyrocketing "gas" prices over again.

I don't think it's over yet, but might be time for a breather.

white_goodman · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I'm surprised as well.

I think the big news tonight is the Fed meeting. I doubt 25bp cut when you're already sitting at a 2% target cash rate does much for you, but it might help the market up a touch tomorrow. If they cut 50bp, they're really risking inflation and skyrocketing "gas" prices over again.

I don't think it's over yet, but might be time for a breather.

calm before the storm maby?

korrupt_1 · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
calm before the storm maby?

yes.. but which way is the wind blowing?

Nyden · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
yes.. but which way is the wind blowing?

Hopefully in the same direction as a lead-brick off the side of a cliff
I really am awaiting some signal that a bottom has been reached; but what I'm really looking for is a major reduction in volatility.

I think for that to happen; we really need to see blood on the streets as it were; and I just don't think we've seen that yet. Where are all the stories on the tele about old couples with ruined super funds, and people losing the lot? When this sort of thing becomes common story, and the average punter starts shorting (already starting to happen ... at least from what I can see from this thread ... just might be time to buy.

Of course, with my bearish view on base-metals ... who knows where we'll be by the time that happens

white_goodman · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
yes.. but which way is the wind blowing?

ahh tooche....

whats the chances of more fallout in the US with there major banks? have the US had their reporting season like we've jsut had?

white_goodman · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

why was there such low volume today, is there something wrong with my graphs or did alot of things seem to move down on no volume?

Trembling Hand · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
why was there such low volume today,

Because your data is wrong.
I got it as the highest volume since June Futs/Option Rollover

tcoates · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman,

I have posted this link elsewhere

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/indexDetails.ac?idx=XAO

The volume was highest since... well... end of June 08

Tim

auric · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

looks interesting at the moment still no sign of capitulation i am sitting on the sidelines at the moment with just a couple small buys in csm sector
need a decent down day and a period of consolidation to get keen
pnf xao comsec eod data up to 16/09/2008

Trembling Hand · 16 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

For the people that like to see the crossing of hands....

XAO Technical Analysis

CAB SAV

mayk

white_goodman

BOC

Frank D

Porper

Ralph Nelson Elliott

dhukka

Frank D

Attachments

Porper

Ralph Nelson Elliott

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

justjohn

Sunder

white_goodman

BOC

korrupt_1

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

white_goodman

BOC

white_goodman

BOC

Attachments

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

tcoates

auric

Trembling Hand

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