XAO Technical Analysis

Sunder · 14 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

What's interesting is this link from ASF here:

http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-514705

It says CBA analysts are calling bottom, but I haven't been "this sure" of a downward slide since May.

Every "reasonable period" exponential moving average is down
MACD is negative
RSI is negative
Bollinger bands indicate down
Money flow indicates down.

Sure there has to be a turning point somewhere, and the nature of turning points is that you change your momentum from down to up. But it's a brave man to get on the news and call bottom when it hasn't really started turning yet.

What are people's take on this? My feel is that we should be going down, but the "lack of bad news" rather than real good news might drive us to another bear market rally.

CanOz · 14 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
What's interesting is this link from ASF here:

http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-514705

It says CBA analysts are calling bottom, but I haven't been "this sure" of a downward slide since May.

Every "reasonable period" exponential moving average is down
MACD is negative
RSI is negative
Bollinger bands indicate down
Money flow indicates down.

Sure there has to be a turning point somewhere, and the nature of turning points is that you change your momentum from down to up. But it's a brave man to get on the news and call bottom when it hasn't really started turning yet.

What are people's take on this? My feel is that we should be going down, but the "lack of bad news" rather than real good news might drive us to another bear market rally.

I'm feeling slightly bullish from a technical perspective, however i feel very bearish from a macro fundamental perspective.....does that make sense?

Cheers,

CanOz

jaithomson · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wall street down 250 points...!!!

korrupt_1 · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
Wall street down 250 points...!!!

looks like you've been given a chance....

sam76 · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

2338 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 expected to open down 2%-3% amid WSJ reports Lehman expected to file for bankruptcy protection. AIG also in focus, with WSJ reporting AIG plans asset sales, new capital. Friday's surge in metal prices should see resources outperform, but resource majors likely to fall amid steep falls in overall market. Major banks could fall 3.0% or more. Traders nervous about how overall market will react to prospect of Lehman failure and question marks about AIG. With volatility likely exacerbated by U.S. news flow and Asian holidays, S&P/ASX 200 could bear brunt of offshore investors' attempts to hedge financial risk. Technically, break of July low at 4758.5 could trigger weekly support line from falling wedge pattern at 4690.0. Daily close below 4772.0 (50% retracement of 2003-2007 rise) would target next major Fibonacci retracement at 4282 (61.8% retracement), according to Dow Jones technical analysis. Index last 4903.8. (DWR)

Sunder · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

sam76 said:
2338 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 expected to open down 2%-3% amid WSJ reports Lehman expected to file for bankruptcy protection. AIG also in focus, with WSJ reporting AIG plans asset sales, new capital. Friday's surge in metal prices should see resources outperform, but resource majors likely to fall amid steep falls in overall market. Major banks could fall 3.0% or more. Traders nervous about how overall market will react to prospect of Lehman failure and question marks about AIG. With volatility likely exacerbated by U.S. news flow and Asian holidays, S&P/ASX 200 could bear brunt of offshore investors' attempts to hedge financial risk. Technically, break of July low at 4758.5 could trigger weekly support line from falling wedge pattern at 4690.0. Daily close below 4772.0 (50% retracement of 2003-2007 rise) would target next major Fibonacci retracement at 4282 (61.8% retracement), according to Dow Jones technical analysis. Index last 4903.8. (DWR)

Did you write that analysis?

Dammit, that's almost exactly how the market fell this morning.

If you wrote it, can I just hand all my money to you?

jaithomson · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

How good..! Back in the game..!

brty · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Jaithomson,

Hope it does down, otherwise Im bust..!

How good..! Back in the game..!

It probably does not matter that you are now making a profit, you have all the tendancies of going bust in this game.

You are chasing tips/thoughts of everyone else, you are obviously overtrading your account size and relying on hope/luck.

You need to get your act together while you still have capital.

brty

korrupt_1 · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
The Lehman news is starting to take substance and could push it higher

The above should now read "The Lehman news is starting to fall apart and could see prices pushed lower"

... in a few hours the fundamentals can change on a dime... such volatility...

CAB SAV · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
The above should now read "The Lehman news is starting to fall apart and could see prices pushed lower"

... in a few hours the fundamentals can change on a dime... such volatility...

Your'e not kidding. It is facinating though. I'm wondering if the USA fed's have got any more rabbits in their hat to pull out tonight.

blogs · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

A cheery comment from The Age

"It's the worst situation for the US banking system since The Great Depression."

Lets just get the cleanout over and done with-its like pulling teeth....

JZ009 · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
How good..! Back in the game..!

Was lucky shorting the index at the top on Saturday morning.....

Aussie index probably going to recover a bit this afternoon, and then leave its fate with US markets tonight....

tech/a · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

As Ive said nothing has changed.
Still bearish from my previous analysis there has been nothing to suggest any different.
Until there is----

gav · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The XJO has recently found support at 4800 and keeps bouncing off it. I reckon the US will get smashed tonight, and we will follow tomorrow. It will fall through 4800 easily tomorrow IMO...

korrupt_1 · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

LOST
One white fluffy bunny rabbit. Goes by the name BUNNY. Very cute and cuddly... Anyone finding Bunny, please call the US FEDs so they can pull it out of a hat...

justjohn · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

If the rabbit out of the hat doesn't work tonight they might just as well pluck a hare from there ars-

Whiskers · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah, but beware...

how does that nursery rhyme go again... when the bears come out to play...

We've had all this before... but with oil going the other way this time...

wayneL · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Yeah, but beware...

how does that nursery rhyme go again... when the bears come out to play...

We've had all this before... but with oil going the other way this time...

You can't plot a MACD divergence unless a pivot point low is in. Clearly we don't have that yet.

...and think about why oil is off. I don't think POO is much of a factor at this point (my opinion).

CamKawa · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
how does that nursery rhyme go again... when the bears come out to play...

I'm not sure. How about... the bulls get impaled on a very large stake?

Whiskers · 15 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
You can't plot a MACD divergence unless a pivot point low is in. Clearly we don't have that yet.

That's sorta my point. Beware that it may be just a pothole... (the latest chapter of bank/financials re-organisation) in a market that naturally is looking to see what's around the corner, economy wise.

...and think about why oil is off. I don't think POO is much of a factor at this point (my opinion).

Agree POO has nothing to do with this pothole, but POO has a lot to do with the short to medium term state of the economy. The outlook has gotta be better this time than previously... hasn't it?

I don't see the world caring too much whether a couple of US based financials continue as is or revamped, so long as customers don't loose money and the system doesn't collapse.

At this point, it's looking to me like just another inevitable reorganisation that had/has to occur to be able to move on... a legacy of the past.

CamKawa said:
I'm not sure. How about... the bulls get impaled on a very large stake?

Or a bear getting impaled on a stirring bull's horns.

XAO Technical Analysis

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